Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

It’s amazing how Elon is giving WS what it wants and TSLA gets punished

I don't see it like that. The losses yesterday were IMHO largely due to the Deepak news. Aftermarket trading dropped 15 points on that news.

If I thought this was going to be some sort of sustained negativity, I would have rolled yesterday. I'm giving the market a few more days; I think the odds are better than not that we're going to see some noisy, but overall upwards movement.

 

[lascavarian]

So the European car market is significantly larger in Tesla's $35k-$55k price segment.

First, really appreciate your contributions. I would consider that "mean" income is not the best consideration. If I remember correctly, China has an upper class of more than 100 million that is wealthy in comparison to the US. Comparing the top 10%s might show an interesting comparison.

My memory is that there are about 300 million in China that map nicely right over the US.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Once 420 was breached, look how quickly it surged to 500.

Pages!

 

[jhm]

Media illusion hurts my brain.
View attachment 373628
Bob Gotchall on Twitter

The biggest fool is not the one who does not know how to read but the one who thinks everything he reads is true.
by Ivo Andrić (Nobel price 1961)

When you attack ICE industry-one of the big media sponsor you are in war with media.
When you attack OIL industry-one of the big media sponsor you are in war with media.
When you attack UTILITY-one of the big media sponsor you are in war with media.
When you attack SPACE industry-you are messing with biggest guys.
When you attack Wall street by making a mess in their investments-you are in war with media owners.
...
This is a moment when I realise that we are in the middle of a propaganda war.

You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Musk, and you must atone!

 

[PANN]

Note that while China is more populous, median income is only around $3,000 per year (!), while median income in western Europe is around $25,000 per year.

So the European car market is significantly larger in Tesla's $35k-$55k price segment.

I disagree. China has 1.3+ billion population, 800-900 million live in villages & small towns with low income, but the 400-500 million urban population has much higher income than $3,000/year. Using median income to compare China market with Europe will draw wrong conclusions.

For example, the cheapest BMW 3-series in China is BMW 320Li, selling at US$46k. And you can see below, BMW sells as many 3-series in China as in Europe in 2017. In 2016 China is less but still about 67% of Europe.

IMHO the main difference between China and Europe is the mix will be different: Tesla will sell more high config/ASP model 3 in Europe (Performance, AWD...) than China.

Europe:

(source: BMW 3-series European sales figures)

China:

(source: BMW 3-Series L China auto sales figures)

 

[gora321]

2043 roadster driver secured! <3

Eli Burton on Twitter

 

[JRP3]

To be frank, I feel they just didn’t think about it.

On the contrary they clearly thought about it more deeply than anyone suggesting building an SUV before a sedan made any sort of sense. The biggest concern with EV's is price and range, in that order, the sedan format optimizes both. Tesla made the only rational choice. Build the 3 first, optimize it's manufacturing, then leverage those optimizations to build the Y. Sedans aren't going away for a long time if ever.

 

[Antonio Wooman]

O.k., looks like we have been waaaay too bullish here (like by more than a factor of 10). Official number is out and it is.... 911 . To put it into context, Model 3 is between the Prius and the Kona Electric for cumulative numbers, and while Model 3 has only been on the list for a week, the others have been there much longer.

Toyota Prius (PHEV): 916
Tesla Model 3: 911
Hyundai Kona Elektro: 909

We also learn that there were applications for 163 Performance Versions and 748 for LR AWD (about 22% Performance).

Note: All those numbers are not the total numbers of orders but only of those people who already applied for Umweltbonus.

Note 2: What went wrong was that we interpreted some serial number to be the number of applications when it really was an "Internet ID" according to someone who talked to the BAFA administration on the phone (I take that to be something like a session ID which counts up everytime someone accesses the online form for an application):

97.645 Umweltbonus-Anträge bis Ende Januar 2019 - electrive.net
http://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Downl...wischenbilanz.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=39

Wow I was hoping Model 3 could at least beat Prius in popularity.

 

[KarenRei]

Wow I was hoping Model 3 could at least beat Prius in popularity.

Welcome to Alphonia, where "How many vehicles Tesla has managed to ship to Germany, early enough to be registered" equals "Popularity"

 

[elasalle]

What do we think the effect of revealing the Model Y being on Model 3 demand?

Clearly Telsa is concerned about it or else they wouldn't reveal it so close to production.

By the time premium MY is available, the non-premium (closer to 35K) M3's will be available so will not be an issue initially.
Long term, it will follow preferences for SUV vs Sedans.

When M3 was getting started - there were lots of challenges and decisions to make:
. How much interest is there in 40-50K priced EV
.Once they saw more than 400K, they needed to transition to mass market scale.

Both of these issues are not there for MY, so internal development going on as planned. MY development and production will be in "9 circles of Heaven" I think we will see production in volumes by 2Q-3Q/ 2020 and thee is some padding in the estimates.

there must be two sets of "stamping, paint shop, body joining, and general assembly shops" being in the works... cheers !!

 

[davecolene0606]

It’s amazing how Elon is giving WS what it wants and TSLA gets punished

Yup, except he didn’t hand em a Cap raise or stock issue, so just like the media gets no advert love WS ain’t gettin those fees they crave.

Fire Away!

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Got a really good one for you. Won't last long but here it is.

Headline: Shortsville Times
Toyota Prius sales exceed Tesla Model 3 in Germany !

Toyota Prius (PHEV): 916
Tesla Model 3: 911
Hyundai Kona Elektro: 909

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[EVNow]

Good run up there to 309 - following Nasdaq up. Hopefully it breaches 310.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Kia Niro EV first drive: one of the most important EVs to hit the market

Model 3 SR competitor?

 

[elasalle]

To: Boss Short

Got a really good one for you. Won't last long but here it is.

Headline: Shortsville Times
Toyota Prius sales exceed Tesla Model 3 in Germany !

Toyota Prius (PHEV): 916
Tesla Model 3: 911
Hyundai Kona Elektro: 909

Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

Hold on "The Eagle hasn't landed yet"

 

[elasalle]

Kia Niro EV first drive: one of the most important EVs to hit the market

Model 3 SR competitor?

Hadn't clicked an Electrek articles in weeks

 

[KarenRei]

Kia Niro EV first drive: one of the most important EVs to hit the market

Model 3 SR competitor?

Nope. Hyundai admits to making almost no profit on its EVs, and Niro shares its powertrain with the Kona.

If you make no profits, you can't produce them in volume. And you can't just take a vehicle designed for being produced in volumes of a couple tens of thousands per year and scale them up to hundreds of thousands per year and hope to see some major price reduction; vehicles have to be designed for high volumes in order to exploit economies of scale.

Try tacking another 20% onto the price of the Kona and Niro for profit in order to see what they'd cost if Hyundai and Kia wanted to make them in mass-market volumes like Tesla does.

 

[KarenRei]

Wonder if this is going to be one of those rare "no-MMD days".

 

[EVMeister]

Kia Niro EV first drive: one of the most important EVs to hit the market

Model 3 SR competitor?

There is a thread for that, and it's not here. We're discussing fast, sexy-looking cars produced at significant volumes here. And equally importantly, the company who makes them.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wow I was hoping Model 3 could at least beat Prius in popularity.

And I was hoping you’d fallen off a cliff or at worst your ability to get on the Internet had vanished.