Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

I have watched the award for the Model 3 in Berlin yesterday life (on my Model 3 screen charging at a SuC) and as you may know many awards have been given to ICE but also to the eTron, i-Pace and finally Model 3 in their respective category. Thats a great win for BEVs.

Beside I found it quite an embarrassing show as such all big busy from big Auto have been there and positioned to be the winner until Elon made the announcement which was a bog one and well placed.

Berlin has a ton of advantages (Alex on Twitter) and I am convinced it to be a much better choice than Lower Saxony or Northrine-Westfalia which have been in discussion too.

Its been also released that the UK was not an option because of Brexit and France IMO can't be an option too given what the Unions do in that country or just imagine 40 days annual vacations that literally no one in the US will ever understand including me. All other countries are much smaller and to get good incentives and turn the narrative around to be in the backyard of Big Auto is the best place to be.

I liked the interaction between Diess and Musk on stage which shows us they have a lot of respect to each other.

Berlin is a unique place, will attract a lot of smart people, wages are affordable, its consider a software center, OEM suppliers are around in Saxony which is near, infrastructure is kind of all new and to be near the Government will help too. Also Elon wants to benefit from the creativity of that town with a Design center which is another great news.

As a German I am very pleased and I am convinced that it will help a lot to bring sales to the levels is deserves to be. If you win Germany the effect on many other smaller countries in Western as well Eastern Europe will be significant IOW expect growing sales in Europe.

On the negative side I expect regulations and other legal complication to hinder a fast construction but those are all issues you can overcome. Berlin will love Tesla as goo paid jobs are very much needed and there has been almost no industrial development after Russia cut all relations between West Berlin and Eastern Germany (DDR). Berlin never recovered from having lost all industries around the town also not after the wall went Dorn in 1989.

Some tried to open new factories in the last 30 years sometimes even for sentimental reasons but Berlin remained a city of Politicians, Art and Sub-Culture. Like a former Mayor said "Berlin is poor but sexy". The sexy part will remain with Tesla producing but the 7,000 employees for GF4 will help to change and and an eco system of new companies will be founded.

Great news

wait...as a German you are saying you expect regulations and legal complication to hinder fast construction....oh dont tell that to other members here.

I think Berlin is a great choice for Tesla and I hope Berlin and Brandenburg make every effort to help Tesla get going. Something a bit snappier than the airport.

 

[UncaNed]

I took a large chunk of my IRA account and tried to time a takeoff in SolarCity(SCTY) from 2015 to 2016 with way out of the money LEAPs plus some shares. My plan was to be hyperagressive shooting for a 12-25x return if SCTY reached $80-100 within the year as a best case, 2x if it hit $70ish and still be alive in a worst case scenario.

My thesis was sales and all soft costs would be trimmed as they scaled. My SCTY shares converted and I'll be even on that investment chuunk when TSLA hits I believe.....$505

Now I buy shares of TSLA when they are low and I will sell when they are high.

How did that last thing you said do after the last ER? How "high" did you sell as it was on it's way up and what were the results?

I asked about buying calls to play with a little mad money that I can afford to lose...

 

[matejpi]

I think that journalists like Danna and Lynette are writting news for trade algorithms. All big players on Wall Street have them, so they create stories with negative connotation to manipulate trading strategy or to skew algorithm forecast output.
It doesn't matter if the story is full of lies or how stupid are journalists who just don't get it, all it matters are the influence these stories have on algoritm trade strategy.

Just a thought.

 

[winfield100]

Good gracious I can't wait to see Mark Spiegel's next financial update. I have no idea how diversified his fund is, but I get the feeling that he let his emotions get the best of him and went deeper and deeper into his Tesla short position (especially a few months ago when the SP was down and he was feeling like a genius). When a professional money manager makes personal, degrading statements about a CEO, and that is the basis of their investment position, you know they aren't thinking rationally. I can't believe the people who have money invested with him didn't pull out immediately. His hatred of all things Elon Musk has destroyed any ability he ever had to invest with a sound mind.

If he has gone off the deep end with his Tesla short position, there's a good chance he has wiped out every penny his fund has ever made. Granted, he was already lagging the market in every single metric. And he WAS betting his entire fund on the economy collapsing, but I get a feeling that he has such a large short position in Tesla that only the collapse of Tesla would save him now. If so, the SEC really needs to keep an eye on him.

Anyone have any real insight? I'm just going off intuition and observation. I have no idea what his position in Tesla is.

@SoGA Fan Club
well, years ago, maybe 5 or more, MarkBS told me i had to be an "Accredited Investor" before i could "invest" in his fund.
(i think that means i had to pony up 1/4 Million IF....)
i'm pretty sure it was before TSLA hit $70/share, so

 

[Nocturnal]

Christmas is really coming early for Tesla bulls this year. I hope the shorts enjoy their coal.

Elon did promise this in Kazakhstan, can't quite recall when though...?

Sorry, I just can't resist.

 

[Zaxxon]

OT:

Many of the people on this thread are wealthy and travel extensively. When I travel, I refuse to stay at any hotel or resort that doesn't have a Tesla destination charger (even if I'm not driving). And I make a point of sending a letter to the hotels that I WOULD HAVE stayed at to let them know I didn't chose their facility because they don't have a Tesla destination charger. Having destination chargers at EVERY hotel and resort makes owning a Tesla (or EV in general since most of the places with Tesla chargers install generic chargers as well) much easier and convenient - and is just another step in EVs becoming main stream. Tesla used to have a program where they would give a business a destination charger and the only cost to the business would be installation and electricity. I'm not sure if they have that any more.

Yes, the program is still around. I think that while it's important to let places know why you didn't stay, I also think it's important to make it as easy as possible for places who do want to join the club to do so. Be polite; include the link to the Charging Partners program; explain that in most locations the cost of a charge is minuscule relative to the revenue generated by even a one-night stay. Speak to management while you are there when possible, as 'EV charging' is a big black hole of confusion for most normal folks today. Sometimes just having the chat in person, answering questions, and maybe even showing your vehicle to the manager can be helpful. And, just as importantly let the places that do have charging know that you value that amenity and that it played a role in your choice to stay.

Further, as Tesla owners, we can also fill out the Charging Partners form. I've used this in the past, for example, to ping Tesla to throw in my request as a Tesla customer on behalf of a lodge owner to let Tesla know that the place was in need of destination charging expansion. (I had spoken to the host while staying there and he told me that he had actually put in a request with Tesla to double his HPWC install, had already had the electrical work done, but had seemingly been placed in Tesla's black hole of communication fail.) Make sure that not only potential hosting locations are aware of the program, but that Tesla is aware of holes in the program or locations that could use improvement.

Our voices matter more than you may think, both to the potential charging hosts that we do business with, as well as to Tesla.

We now return you to your regularly-scheduled extended short squeeze.

 

[SteveG3]

I had no idea GM owned Opel for that long.

Amen. I'm on record passionately defending "mainstream media" before, but the problem is I'm not sure what that means anymore. I still subscribe to publications like the FT, for instance, but Bloomberg, as demonstrated by such journalists like Dana Hull, or CNBC, etc. are more than useless, they are pernicious. Mark Spiegel is true to himself. What or who the heck is Dana Hull true to? (And Dana is one of the better ones; go figure.)

my sense is that “mainstream,” “centrist,” “moderate” have basically become marketing terms to imply a sense of ‘normalness,’ a false suggestion of a once existing level of standards that have long been eroding and now pretty much are just vapors at the 5 mega corporations that own over 90% of US media.

who leads these companies? the CEOs

who hires and fires these CEOs (and is included in the large strategic steering of the companies)? their boards of directors. you’ll find these 5 mega media companies have boards that include CEOs and board members of big banks, giant fossil fuel companies, big pharma, etc


key stakeholders with management’s ears?

1 advertisers (see big banks, giant fossil fuel companies, big pharma, etc above)

2 large shareholders, whether ultra wealthy individuals or institutional investors. both groups other shareholdings? far more likely than not, big banks, giant fossil fuel companies, big pharma etc


Much of it is not that complicated, you’re just not going to find these behemoth for profit media companies reporting on all this about themselves.

 

[T@oo]

Can I get a moderator here; clean up in aisle 4! This poster needs permanent banning. Nobody in their right mind gets tired of winning. Ever. Especially after being beaten down repeatedly, for extended periods of time, by liars, crooks, thieves, bandits and dog lovers.

Sorry, disagree for the dog lover.

 

[Unpilot]

Sorry, disagree for the dog lover.

Yeah that was a bit much...maybe they were choking on a hair ball when that was posted.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wall St definitely trying their best to walk it back down under 350. Considering this selling pressure of small sell blocks is coming above the nice round number of 350/share, it's hard to believe it's investors actually selling and not manipulators. Most actual investors would have put their sell orders at the 350/share

 

[Swampgator]

I think that journalists like Danna and Lynette are writting news for trade algorithms. All big players on Wall Street have them, so they create stories with negative connotation to manipulate trading strategy or to skew algorithm forecast output.
It doesn't matter if the story is full of lies or how stupid are journalists who just don't get it, all it matters are the influence these stories have on algoritm trade strategy.

Just a thought.

Dana also gets paid more money if her articles move the market. Looks like she got a swing and a miss today

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Morgan Stanley: Tesla China Margins Could Exceed 30%
Adam Jonas: “Consider labor at 1/10th California wages and other cost reductions (BOM, D&A, logistics, etc.) and we may see Tesla China gross margins pushing the mid-30% range”.

 

[flabellina]

Looks like Elon is now in Luxenbourg
Morten Grove on Twitter

 

[davecolene0606]

From a CNBC article.

The big question is whether Tesla can hold onto its lead in electric-car manufacturing once Volkswagen and other established carmakers really get into the game. The old guard have several advantages: they possess huge expertise in manufacturing and deep pockets that can fund new technology.

How many times will they trot out the line about the "big boy's are coming" line?

oooooooh! Be afraid! U.S. company no match for anyone!

Fire Away!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

FWIW...

Just talked to my brother who has lived his entire adult life in Germany. While thrilled with news that Tesla is coming to Germany, he cautions that whatever timeline they are quoting, add a year to it at least. He is well familiar with German bureaucracy.

Dan

 

[Nocturnal]

The fact that Elon cited Brexit as the reason why the UK was not selected for GF4 is instructive.

Morgan Stanley: Tesla China Margins Could Exceed 30%
Adam Jonas: “Consider labor at 1/10th California wages and other cost reductions (BOM, D&A, logistics, etc.) and we may see Tesla China gross margins pushing the mid-30% range”.

But my SP target is still $10....

 

[SunCatcher]

Would anyone like to hazard a guess on when Tesla becomes #2 most valuable "automaker?"

Just before it becomes #1.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

FWIW...

Just talked to my brother who has lived his entire adult life in Germany. While thrilled with news that Tesla is coming to Germany, he cautions that whatever timeline they are quoting, add a year to it at least. He is well familiar with German bureaucracy.

Dan

Given how Tesla and Elon has switched to giving conservative guidance, I'm inclined to believe they are already putting a lot of buffer in that end of 2021 timeline.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Yeah that was a bit much...maybe they were choking on a hair ball when that was posted.

What hair?

 

[JustMe]

I’d just like to point out that, according to Yahoo finance, every one of 26 analysts they surveyed forecast Tesla to be profitable in FY2020.

Eps estimates range from $0.85 - $5.39