Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

What's with noon being the point where the dip always seems to happen? Is it because traders leave for lunch and it allows easier manipulation?

MND? Mandatory Noon Dip?

 

[Cherry Wine]

Looks like a pretty classic gap fill at this point.

 

[wipster]

What's with noon being the point where the dip always seems to happen? Is it because traders leave for lunch and it allows easier manipulation?

So are you trying to establish a new TLA, the AND (at noon dip)?

 

[ReflexFunds]

Unsurprisingly, commitment to accelerated bureaucracy was one of Elon's key criteria when choosing the GF4 location. He has demanded GF4 is built as quickly as GF3 in China. I guess he is aiming for Q1 2021 production. But i expect this will still be harder to deliver on than in China.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The government in Brandenburg, one of five federal states in the former communist east, also lobbied hard to win over Musk, offering at least 100 million euros in aid. The state’s negotiators kept up the pressure in the past months, touting Brandenburg’s proximity to Berlin, its skilled labor force and an abundance of clean-energy plants, Premier Dietmar Woidke said.

“Berlin can do a lot that we aren’t able to, and we can do a lot that Berlin can’t,” Woidke told reporters in Potsdam. “Together, that’s an unbeatable mix.”

Officials in Brandenburg described the negotiations with Musk as an emotional roller-coaster ride, with the politicians struggling to read the billionaire’s intentions. But by last week, things were looking up. After Musk arrived in Berlin, he toured the location where the factory would sit, and he took a local train back to central Berlin to try for himself how long the commute might take.

Fresh from his experience building a factory in China, Musk had a demand that was as clear as it was hard to execute for notoriously bureaucratic Germans: to build the site as swiftly as the one in Shanghai, according to Brandenburg’s economy minister, Joerg Steinbach. That caused considerable consternation among officials still chafing from the new-airport debacle.

 

[Nocturnal]

So are you trying to establish a new TLA, the AND (at noon dip)?

Just trying to understand the madness of the market.

 

[kbM3]

I just tried out the new one pedal driving. I have to say, it was incredibly nice. It made me reflect on an earlier review where either the Bolt, or the Nissan Leaf, was rated superior in this aspect.

It really goes to show how Tesla’s over the air updates are such a game changer. All of these historical reviews are now absolutely obsolete. This is unprecedented in automotive history! Automobile functionality is supposed to be fixed. If you want to buy a 2017 vehicle, you should be able to go back and read reviews about that model year and get a very accurate picture of the functionality. No more!

Any automobile review that does not either give a major PRO to Tesla in the pros list, or a major CON to every other automobile in every single comparison, for not having this functionality, is disingenuous!

A partial list of features added since I bought my 2018 Model 3 would be 10-20 SIGNIFICANT items long.

Sorry for all the exclamation points and CAPS, but I feel strongly about this.

 

[ReflexFunds]

TRUMP SAYS DECISION COMING `FAILY SOON' ON AUTO TARIFFS

 

[UncaNed]

safe to say 350 has been conquered?

For about the 6th time since I first bought any TSLA it has. Probably won't be the last time.

 

[Nocturnal]

TRUMP SAYS DECISION COMING `FAILY SOON' ON AUTO TARIFFS

Given the source, I have no idea if it's your typo or his. I'm assuming his.

 

[kbM3]

Model 3 is up for Motor Trend Car of the Year, although the hardware is nearly the same as the earlier model that lost to Alfa Romeo. This is great news with a caveat. My largest gripe is that Tesla’s best in the world Advanced Driver’s Assist functionality was listed under Cons because it didn’t work as well as expected in non-highway situations. Really? The best such functionality in the world is listed under the cons ?

Why the Updated 2019 Tesla Model 3 is a 2020 Car of the Year Finalist - Motor Trend

 

[nativewolf]

nativewolf said: ↑
Might seem dramatic but I just want to emphasize that the german workers councils are not the UAW. No more so than Chrysler is Google. Just massively different animals. It's one reason why the german auto industry started looking abroad for manufacturing, going to poland, hungary, etc. The managers in the companies I consulted for tread on eggshells around the workers councils and they were german as they come.

The workers' councils are empowered by law. There's no room for Elon to decide he's not going to follow German rules. He must play the game as it's played in Germany.

Exactly. Elon may clash with the entire culture, he'll need someone he trusts to run this unit or it could be an issue going forward.

 

[nativewolf]

FWIW...

Just talked to my brother who has lived his entire adult life in Germany. While thrilled with news that Tesla is coming to Germany, he cautions that whatever timeline they are quoting, add a year to it at least. He is well familiar with German bureaucracy.

Dan

A couple of posters on here confuse German precision with actual efficiency and speed. You want an over engineered product that is superbly precise...great. You want that quickly with minimal costs...not so good. Should have made a bet for donations to our favorite charities ...

 

[Mkorpal]

Adorable

You'd think I'd have learned my lesson by now.

 

[pz1975]

Tesla obtains manufacturing license for Gigafactory 3 — production is imminent - Electrek

How is this not being reported by anyone other than Electrek? This is a big deal and is the last step needed for soon-to-come massive additional revenue and profits. My entire Apple stock feed on TSLA doesn't mention this once.

 

[M3Rider]

That's not true because the share price is based on expected earnings. News released about a future event that will almost certainly increase earnings at a future date is priced in immediately (with a discount for the amount of time and the relative certainty/uncertainty that it will come to pass). I've seen this time and time again.

As far as I am concerned, with my core position still a bit in the red from Sept 2018(was green in the morning) we are back to a single factory valuation from 2018.
This means none of these are priced in:
- GF3
- Y
- Plaid S/X
- Solar roof
From a more remote future,
- Semi, R2, truck, GF4

Maybe for normal companies future events account for something, but it seems so far we have only seen a reflection of Q3 2019 results in the SP.

There was likely a bit of a loss of trust/disappointment over the last year, which is why all the talking and future news are ignored and valued at 0. I'm all in for this reality to change, so maybe that's what we'll see in a near future. It's just not happening so far.

Thanks
I did the opposite, bought some leveraged Mini Futures premarket (for those interested: Vontobel Hebelprodukte | derinet® Schweiz)
I guess these are not for sale stateside.

So much good news lately, getting tired of winning ; )

So, as someone who's still a bit in the red, I do not consider the recent run as "winning".

Also, @anthonyj did something a lot more risky - he bet on options expiring next week looking for SP to double.

Any "more moderate" bull bets may be warranted, but don't really compare

I have to say, there was a little bit of sense in what he did, since he explained the thesis was not GF4, but cooperation agreement with VW.

I was considering this yesterday. There were couple of things going for it:
- Diess on the stage with Elon. Why?
- ER call where Elon said it's possible that Tesla will help other OEMs
- Long pause in ER before the question was answered. Could be interpreted as a consideration whether to disclose some ongoing negotiations.

What I thought was going against it is:
- Nothing said yesterday about cooperation with VW
- In ER call, my take on Elon explanation that "it'd be in line with mission to help OEMs" is that it was indeed a first time consideration of the possibility, otherwise I would expect a bit more affirmative statement. But maybe he was just doing a good job of hiding the negotiations.
- VW bragging about ID3 overtaking Tesla on volume.

From a CNBC article.

The big question is whether Tesla can hold onto its lead in electric-car manufacturing once Volkswagen and other established carmakers really get into the game. The old guard have several advantages: they possess huge expertise in manufacturing and deep pockets that can fund new technology.

How many times will they trot out the line about the "big boy's are coming" line?

One thing I feel that some people are discounting from Tony Seba's presentation is that the future is TaaS and software.
The manufacturing experience will matter less and, especially, in my view, car design.

So first of all, if your ride to work costs you $1 in a taxi, but $20 in a privately owned car, how many people will keep the cars? Not many. And they will be hit with massive insurance premiums too if they plan on not using FSD. You know, like: you bastard are trying to kill people when everyone around you is safe and nice to each other using FSD.

So, if a taxi comes to pick you up, do you really care if it's made in Germany with their featured design or it's some econobox? I think I wouldn't care much. Yeah, it's nice if it's roomy and slick, but if not, then not a huge problem, this is not my car.

So, the future will be more about software and less about outer shape of the car.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How did that last thing you said do after the last ER? How "high" did you sell as it was on it's way up and what were the results?

Selling high to me means somewhere in the neighborhood of $700 short term, $2500 medium term, $4000 long term. All with the intention of getting back in. if we shoot to $700 in February I'll sell 50% and try to get back in at $400-500 when the recession hits.

I asked about buying calls to play with a little mad money that I can afford to lose...

Yeah, that was not my strategy. Lesson learned.

 

[Nocturnal]

Model 3 is up for Motor Trend Car of the Year, although the hardware is nearly the same as the earlier model that lost to Alfa Romeo. This is great news with a caveat. My largest gripe is that Tesla’s best in the world Advanced Driver’s Assist functionality was listed under Cons because it didn’t work as well as expected in non-highway situations. Really? The best such functionality in the world is listed under the cons ?

Why the Updated 2019 Tesla Model 3 is a 2020 Car of the Year Finalist - Motor Trend

Cons: Netflix stuttered once while watching a movie. We recommend you buy a car without Netflix to avoid this issue.

Well, that's technically true I guess.

 

[imherkimer]

Just a piece of speculation here: but isn’t it significant that Giga3, in China, is just now opening doors and producing Tesla cars when Elon shows up in Berlin to announce Giga4?

For the last 10 months the stunning progress from a muddy field into a full blown state of the art EV factory has been detailed daily (through constant drone footage), and the whole world, (friend or foe or otherwise) has seen that this is an incredible achievement. It’s bringing a lot of PRIDE to Shanghai! And the Chinese Model 3’s are already getting rave reviews.

Now the German Auto industry is finding itself in a time of great challenge. The awareness is dawning that ICE cannot be the future. As Herbert Diess pointed out yesterday, Tesla has proven now that EV’s are viable, even superior, and are, in fact, by far the best way forward for sustainable mobility, therefore for the German auto industry.

Elon has been talking to German auto manufacturing companies all the way along since virtually day 1.
Grohmann is already integrated into Tesla, but is still primarily a German entity, with a presence also now in Shanghai.
(For clues as to how Tesla may work with labor councils, etc, the Grohmann acquisition is a very interesting study.)

So I see Elon challenging Germans to step up and show their best! He has, with this incredible moment, the opportunity to marshal German nationalist pride in manufacturing and, combined with the growing pressure on ICE industry and its suppliers from top to bottom, accelerate the construction of this new factory and design center. This will build on the “foothold” Tesla already has there. Tesla Grohmann helps.

I suspect, from what was seen on the stage yesterday, that there are many ways in which at least certain legacy auto makers (such as VW) really do welcome Tesla’s arrival because it will make the arguments, and the political/social/economic environment more favorable for their own transition to electric mobility. The competition will be good, as will collaboration. It’s going to be quite a dance!

This is why I think this announcement for Giga4 in Berlin is a real watershed moment for the shift from ICE.
Fascinating to me how it will likely be truly transformative on so many levels over the next 5 years.

 

[capster]

So if I have a $420 profit on $420 calls....do I HAVE to sell?

If you’re worried it’ll go up in smoke...

 

[UncaNed]

This probably doesn't belong here, but I'm hoping as many of you see this as possible before it gets moved/deleted, because all of us can help with this whether we own a Tesla or not.

As an investor in Tesla, I think it is smart to do business with those who are helping our position (and passion). Many of the people on this thread are wealthy and travel extensively. When I travel, I refuse to stay at any hotel or resort that doesn't have a Tesla destination charger (even if I'm not driving). And I make a point of sending a letter to the hotels that I WOULD HAVE stayed at to let them know I didn't chose their facility because they don't have a Tesla destination charger. Having destination chargers at EVERY hotel and resort makes owning a Tesla (or EV in general since most of the places with Tesla chargers install generic chargers as well) much easier and convenient - and is just another step in EVs becoming main stream. Tesla used to have a program where they would give a business a destination charger and the only cost to the business would be installation and electricity. I'm not sure if they have that any more. Currently, most hotels do not charge for using these chargers, but as EVs become more and more prevalent, I would be fine with them charging a fee to charge - after all, it is a business and they can't be in the business of giving away money (maybe at this point they can, but not when they have 10 EVs per night in the parking lot - but, then, it's a moot point then anyway - mission has been mostly accomplished).

Another thing that should help is giving the ones you stay at a 5-star Google rating and letting them know the Charger is an important part of that. To leave a review, google the business, then when their mini-webpage on the right (for laptop users) opens up, click "Google Reviews" and then leave a review. You need to be logged in like when you're using Gmail.