As I noted earlier, Opricot's MaxPain today is heavily skewed by an outlier of 80,000 puts at the $50 strike. It's the buyer(s) of those puts that will have to accept the lion's share of such losses, while the writer(s) keep the gains.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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As I noted earlier, Opricot's MaxPain today is heavily skewed by an outlier of 80,000 puts at the $50 strike. It's the buyer(s) of those puts that will have to accept the lion's share of such losses, while the writer(s) keep the gains.
Anything like that kills range. Granted it's not hard to fill up, but those folks are looking at several hundred dollars for a long weekend trip.
Yeah. We have this image that pick ups are for farmers and construction workers. The reality is that most of the market is just guys who want a tough vehicle and maybe occasionally got to home depot.
You think I-35 is bad ( slow lane is for those doing the speed limit 75), try I-45 between Dallas and Houston. 85 -90 mph is routine and I doubt any EV less than a Model S is making it without recharging.
Correct with the exception that many of them do have campers or trailers that they use for vacations (it might be only once or twice a year). There are a lot of boaters, fishermen, and hunters, and everyone of them has a camper body or trailer.
Do you guys realize that TSLA @ 350 in 2019 is still within DaveT's Tesla 1.0 scenario? With Model Y, Semi and CuyberTrck coming soon? 2.0 would be @ 590 and 3.0 ~ 720
What's crazier: DaveT's imagination, or current market's valuation?
What's crazier: DaveT's imagination, or current market's valuation?
Pezpunk
Active Member
Disagree. The S and 3 are very conventional-looking (if attractive) sedans (exterior-wise). From a distance, if you're not an expert you might be like, "oh, is that a Jag? Audi? No wait, that's a Model S." Tesla is perfectly capable of making conventional-looking vehicles, but nobody is going to mistake the Cybertruck for a Dodge Ram at any distance that isn't measured in fractions of light-years. All indications are that this will be by far their most unconventional design.
I believe the charging speed consideration was pretty important for many folks deciding between SR+ and LR. Who would've thought this can change after you buy the carYou guys see the leaked photo of the 2019.40 software? Tesla Tested's tweet - " 2019.40.1 will included SR+ charging to 170kW. Included improvements to lane changes and the automatic wipers. " - Trendsmap
Those of us with Model 3s know the automatic wiper function leaves a bit to be desired with how sensitive/accurate it is, so this is going to be a huge win, just in time for winter
Wow these silicon valley folks are relentless. Thumbs up.
75% of pick up drivers tow 1 time or less per year. Most really are just fashion accessories.
Hey, America: You Don't Need a Full-Size Pickup Truck, You Need a Cowboy Costume
Truck owners might protest that they are slightly less likely than owners of other categories to use their vehicle as primary transport (83% vs. 95%), limiting the miles and gallons. And they might also protest that trucks provide capabilities that other vehicles lack. But, as it turns out, a significant portion of truck owners never use their trucks for these capabilities. According to Edwards’ data, 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less (meaning, never). Nearly 70 percent of truck owners go off-road one time a year or less. And a full 35 percent of truck owners use their truck for hauling—putting something in the bed, its ostensible raison d’être—once a year or less.
If I understand it correctly, when you hover over the individual lines in the chart below on the Opricot site (won't work on the screenshot below), it will show the payouts for calls and puts for each strike price. Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain
Currently:
At SP=$350 it's showing $615.8M payout for calls and $1.88m for puts ($614M difference).
At SP=$355 it's showing $669.54M payout for calls and 0.77M for puts ($669M difference).
Max pain is $312.5M, but given the heavy open interest option writers' payout increases significantly the farther the SP increases from max pain, in this case about $11M/per dollar of SP increase if Opricot's data is correct.
I suspect Elon and the design team were well aware of the likelihood that many existing truck buyers, and the media, are likely more than ready to try to "Zima" Tesla's pickup truck (that is, try to make it very socially painful for some men to buy one).
This may well be why Elon had the team dial up the "badass-ness (think armored personal carrier)," as well as steer hard toward "futuristic, cybertruck," to potentially broaden the trucks appeal to the youthful, techy demographic that's already eaten up S3X, but may have never thought of buying a pickup.
'CybrTrk' + 'Badass' = Chess move by Tesla: try to preemptively cut off the "Zima-izing" attempts by making someone doing so look as if they are a 'blind, stuck in the past, childish, backwards, fool.'
Less than a week and we'll see if they've hit a homerun or designed a frankenmonster, lols.
This may well be why Elon had the team dial up the "badass-ness (think armored personal carrier)," as well as steer hard toward "futuristic, cybertruck," to potentially broaden the trucks appeal to the youthful, techy demographic that's already eaten up S3X, but may have never thought of buying a pickup.
'CybrTrk' + 'Badass' = Chess move by Tesla: try to preemptively cut off the "Zima-izing" attempts by making someone doing so look as if they are a 'blind, stuck in the past, childish, backwards, fool.'
Less than a week and we'll see if they've hit a homerun or designed a frankenmonster, lols.
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Elon Musk has long wanted to eat the German carmakers’ lunch, but no one thought he would have the audacity to do it in their own staff canteen. When he announced this week that Tesla would build its first European production plant near Berlin, there can be no doubt that it his intention. The German government was exultant. Peter Altmaier, economics minister, said it provided “further proof of how attractive Germany is as a place to make cars”, and was a “milestone” on the country’s path towards electromobility. But there was also shock at Mr Musk’s chutzpah. Here was an upstart entrepreneur throwing down the gauntlet to some of Germany’s most successful and long-established companies on their home turf. The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper called it a “declaration of war”.
Some were surprised that Mr Musk had chosen to locate the facility in Brandenburg, the state surrounding Berlin, which does not have a carmaking tradition. It is hundreds of miles from Baden-Württemberg, home to Daimler, Bosch and Porsche, and from Wolfsburg, the town in Lower Saxony where Volkswagen is headquartered. [German carmakers] have been sitting in their own diesel la-la-land for far too long. It’s good that someone’s coming in to challenge them Arndt Ellinghorst, Evercore ISI But the symbolism of locating near Berlin, one of Europe’s hippest cities with a huge pool of technical talent, is significant. “Berlin rocks!” Mr Musk said when he unveiled the gigafactory plans. “As a production site, Berlin sounds a lot cooler than some out-of-the-way place in Poland, Hungary or West Germany,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the University of Duisberg-Essen’s Centre for Automotive Research.
With traditional companies making big bets on electric, Tesla will soon face serious competition. The VDA, the main German auto lobby, was blasé about Mr Musk’s gigafactory announcement. German carmakers, said VDA head Bernhard Mattes, were already investing in electromobility and “will increase their electric model range fivefold by 2023” to more than 150. “We don’t shy away from competition — quite the contrary,” Mr Mattes said. As Germany becomes a main player in electric vehicles, Tesla’s gambit makes sense because the company needs to be where the action is, say experts. “There’s no question that Europe will be at 20-30 per cent fully electric vehicles by the end of the 2020s, and be the biggest market after China,” said Evercore’s Mr Ellinghorst. “And if Musk wants to play in Europe, he needs to produce in Europe and be seen as a European player.”
Elon Musk has long wanted to eat the German carmakers’ lunch, but no one thought he would have the audacity to do it in their own staff canteen. When he announced this week that Tesla would build its first European production plant near Berlin, there can be no doubt that it his intention. The German government was exultant. Peter Altmaier, economics minister, said it provided “further proof of how attractive Germany is as a place to make cars”, and was a “milestone” on the country’s path towards electromobility. But there was also shock at Mr Musk’s chutzpah. Here was an upstart entrepreneur throwing down the gauntlet to some of Germany’s most successful and long-established companies on their home turf. The conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper called it a “declaration of war”.
Some were surprised that Mr Musk had chosen to locate the facility in Brandenburg, the state surrounding Berlin, which does not have a carmaking tradition. It is hundreds of miles from Baden-Württemberg, home to Daimler, Bosch and Porsche, and from Wolfsburg, the town in Lower Saxony where Volkswagen is headquartered. [German carmakers] have been sitting in their own diesel la-la-land for far too long. It’s good that someone’s coming in to challenge them Arndt Ellinghorst, Evercore ISI But the symbolism of locating near Berlin, one of Europe’s hippest cities with a huge pool of technical talent, is significant. “Berlin rocks!” Mr Musk said when he unveiled the gigafactory plans. “As a production site, Berlin sounds a lot cooler than some out-of-the-way place in Poland, Hungary or West Germany,” said Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the University of Duisberg-Essen’s Centre for Automotive Research.
With traditional companies making big bets on electric, Tesla will soon face serious competition. The VDA, the main German auto lobby, was blasé about Mr Musk’s gigafactory announcement. German carmakers, said VDA head Bernhard Mattes, were already investing in electromobility and “will increase their electric model range fivefold by 2023” to more than 150. “We don’t shy away from competition — quite the contrary,” Mr Mattes said. As Germany becomes a main player in electric vehicles, Tesla’s gambit makes sense because the company needs to be where the action is, say experts. “There’s no question that Europe will be at 20-30 per cent fully electric vehicles by the end of the 2020s, and be the biggest market after China,” said Evercore’s Mr Ellinghorst. “And if Musk wants to play in Europe, he needs to produce in Europe and be seen as a European player.”
Pezpunk
Active Member
What matters is what the buyer thinks they need, not how they're actually used.
Absolutely.
I'm not worried about that. Those guys say the exact same type of homophobic things about Toyota trucks etc. Sure they don't sell as much as Ford, but they still sell plenty.
Building a good EV is very difficult. Electric pickup truck is even more difficult. Because a truck is heavier than sedan and has worse aero resistance, yet you want more range. The end result is you will need about 200 kWh battery pack. That will add weight and cost.
To make this all work, you need low cost high energy density batteries, great battery pack design, powerful and efficient motor drive/control system, and highly efficient motors. It's hard for me to believe Ford can suddenly do well in these areas. The F-150e maybe better than F-150, it probably will cost a lot more.
The truck just has to look good. It doesn't have to look like everything else on the road to sell. Styling is subjective. But if it looks weird, and the majority of people have a good weird radar, it will be niche. And thats a lot of R&D $$ to spend for niche.
My prediction, once everyone gets over the shock and awe, a large segment, yes even truck buyers tired of seeing their truck 10 times in other people's driveways before leaving the neighborhood will get in line to buy one.
My prediction, once everyone gets over the shock and awe, a large segment, yes even truck buyers tired of seeing their truck 10 times in other people's driveways before leaving the neighborhood will get in line to buy one.
Mach-E recharging speed is NOWHERE NEAR competitive.
Model Y at 1,000 mph is 3.5X faster than Mach-E at 282 mph
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've not looked at it. It would be interesting to see what financial assumptions were made and how well they hold up.
Regarding all the FUD. Norway is often put forward as the country to be in if want to drive Tesla. But there is plenty of FUD going on here too.
Just today I listened to a finance/stock podcast where one of the two talking heads had an idea of putting together a ShortSh*tList of companies he should rotate between and always short one of them. And the one they talked most about was of course Tesla. Things like shady behaviour and a questionable Q4 earnings report was mentioned.
Also most of the FUD mentioned here are repeated in Norwegian newspapers - both business and regular news ones. They need a day or so to borrow the original articles and translate them. But then they come. Weekly I read about Tesla killers and Tesla quality problems etc.
But despite all this Tesla Model 3 is today 2363 cars away from beating the most sold in a year - the record set by the VW Beetle who sold 16706 cars back in 1969. So despite all the FUD and all the Tesla killers beeing sold Tesla is not doing too bad!
Have you tried plugging in a USB keyboard or connecting a bluetooth one? I haven't tried it myself.
Just today I listened to a finance/stock podcast where one of the two talking heads had an idea of putting together a ShortSh*tList of companies he should rotate between and always short one of them. And the one they talked most about was of course Tesla. Things like shady behaviour and a questionable Q4 earnings report was mentioned.
Also most of the FUD mentioned here are repeated in Norwegian newspapers - both business and regular news ones. They need a day or so to borrow the original articles and translate them. But then they come. Weekly I read about Tesla killers and Tesla quality problems etc.
But despite all this Tesla Model 3 is today 2363 cars away from beating the most sold in a year - the record set by the VW Beetle who sold 16706 cars back in 1969. So despite all the FUD and all the Tesla killers beeing sold Tesla is not doing too bad!
Have you tried plugging in a USB keyboard or connecting a bluetooth one? I haven't tried it myself.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
And that's the beauty of the Cybertruck! Buyers didn't even think they needed a futuristic armored personnel carrier but Elon is showing them things they didn't even know they could buy!
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