Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Today is a monthly options expiration day. Based on yesterday's open interest, Opricot calculates TSLA MaxPain at $312.50. However, that is pulled low by a an outlier of 80,000 puts at the $50 strike.

A casual survey makes it appear that $350 would be a more reasonable target for any potential manipulators who wrote options expiring today.

$350 might be their target but it looks to me like it's going to break-out to the upside if the macros hold together through the end of the day.

 

[Nocturnal]

I can't decide if the Media reaction will be positive or negative, but I don't think it will matter. I hope the unvel really highlights features.

X HP, Y Torque, Z gas mileage.

View attachment 477265
Best I can do with my limited skills

I still say the Tesla Pickup needs Plasma Trucknuts.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Earl of #CYBRTRKPuppy on Twitter

Pretty good sign from Germany on demand there "Price increase on both AWD and P Model 3's"

 

[woodisgood]

Posted this in the Cybrtrk thread but in thinking about the truck, I'm wondering if the smart play is to license the drivetrain to American legacy auto.

As cool as the Cybertruck will be, it will simply not appeal to a stubborn customer base. And even if it did, you can't make a million of them per year yet. So sell the drivetrain to Ford/GM etc., and let them slap their familiar shells and beds on top. Middle America electrified. Happy truck owners with way lower TCO who got to keep buying "Murkan." Huge profits for Tesla. And sure, make your cool Cybertruck in volumes somewhere between Y and X and sell as many as you can to the folks that appreciate the unique aspects.

 

[Skryll]

Looks like a very nice EV, good specs and competitive price. I sincerely hope, they are serious about producing this in real volume, not just for compliance markets and numbers. Of course, just like any competitive EV, it is not a threat to Tesla but it is a threat to the Ford ICE vehicles it will take the sales from.
The biggest problem For needs to solve is to somehow force the stealerships to sell this EV instead of hiding it from the customers and talking them out of buying it and directing them to an ICE instead.

Except the specs are phantasy specs. There is no way an 80kWh battery gets 300 mile EPA on a gen1 EV. Unless they specced in 2020 battery packs and motors from tesla.

 

[StealthP3D]

I can't decide if the Media reaction will be positive or negative, but I don't think it will matter. I hope the unvel really highlights features.

X HP, Y Torque, Z gas mileage.

What about payload and towing?

The detractors are going to make a big deal that it won't be rated to tow 300,000 pounds. But Musk never said that would be the tow rating, just that it could. And no one who knows anything about towing and tow ratings could have misunderstood him.

 

[woodisgood]

Except the specs are phantasy specs. There is no way an 80kWh battery gets 300 mile EPA on a gen1 EV. Unless they specced in 2020 battery packs and motors from tesla.

Exactly. They're literally throwing Model Y specs up on the wall and people are giving them the benefit of the doubt there won't be a 30% hit on those targets. Color me skeptical.

 

[StealthP3D]

Posted this in the Cybrtrk thread but in thinking about the truck, I'm wondering if the smart play is to license the drivetrain to American legacy auto.

As cool as the Cybertruck will be, it will simply not appeal to a stubborn customer base. And even if it did, you can't make a million of them per year yet. So sell the drivetrain to Ford/GM etc., and let them slap their familiar shells and beds on top. Middle America electrified. Happy truck owners with way lower TCO who got to keep buying "Murkan." Huge profits for Tesla. And sure, make your cool Cybertruck in volumes somewhere between Y and X and sell as many as you can to the folks that appreciate the unique aspects.

American truck owners put a lot of highway miles on their trucks and the effect of aerodynamics can be devastating to range. Slapping an EV powertrain in a conventional pick-up is a disaster in terms of wooing current truck owners to electric.

 

[woodisgood]

American truck owners put a lot of highway miles on their trucks and the effect of aerodynamics can be devastating to range. Slapping an EV powertrain in a conventional pick-up is a disaster in terms of wooing current truck owners to electric.

I don't know about that, I think the electric F-150 will probably do quite well if it can be priced somewhat reasonably. And I don't really care if their electric trucks aren't as efficient as they COULD BE, as long as they're buying electric.

The ones who [are smart enough to] appreciate the distinctions you're making will buy Cybertruck anyways.

Have your cake and eat it too is what I'm saying.

 

[Nocturnal]

Posted this in the Cybrtrk thread but in thinking about the truck, I'm wondering if the smart play is to license the drivetrain to American legacy auto.

As cool as the Cybertruck will be, it will simply not appeal to a stubborn customer base. And even if it did, you can't make a million of them per year yet. So sell the drivetrain to Ford/GM etc., and let them slap their familiar shells and beds on top. Middle America electrified. Happy truck owners with way lower TCO who got to keep buying "Murkan." Huge profits for Tesla. And sure, make your cool Cybertruck in volumes somewhere between Y and X and sell as many as you can to the folks that appreciate the unique aspects.

I don't think any of the legacy makers want to do that. Ford maybe but that's why they bought into Rivian.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know about that, I think the electric F-150 will probably do quite well if it can be priced somewhat reasonably. And I don't really care if their electric trucks aren't as efficient as they COULD BE, as long as they're buying electric.

The ones who [are smart enough to] appreciate the distinctions you're making will buy Cybertruck anyways.

Have your cake and eat it too is what I'm saying.

I'm not saying *I* care if their range suffers, I'm saying *they* will care. Putting an EV drivetrain in a conventional truck is not a good way to get current truck owners to switch from gas/diesel to electric.

 

[woodisgood]

I don't think any of the legacy makers want to do that. Ford maybe but that's why they bought into Rivian.

Want to? Of course not. Perhaps they will change their mind after Thursday and if the option ever becomes available to them?

 

[gluu]

If you look at this image:

https://i.imgur.com/ccetwrR.jpg

Apparently within each trim there is an SR/ER edition. My guess is the prices for each trim (Premium, GT, California Route 1, etc) are for the SR edition of the of that trim, but the headline EPA range is for the ER edition. It seems unlikely that no other traditional OEM could match Tesla's efficiency/pricing yet all of a sudden Ford made this jump.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm not saying *I* care if their range suffers, I'm saying *they* will care. Putting an EV drivetrain in a conventional truck is not a good way to get current truck owners to switch from gas/diesel to electric.

Right, and what you are saying implies you do not think the F-150e will be successful.

My point is simply that, for a certain portion of the truck-buying population, F-150e with inferior specs will sell much much better than Cybertruck, no matter the specs on Cybertruck. Tesla can still cash in without having to try to swim against some strong cultural forces.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't think any of the legacy makers want to do that. Ford maybe but that's why they bought into Rivian.

If you're only making money off trucks, Tesla starts eating your high-end marketshare, and Ford reacts by speeding the Rivian ramp-up.....you'll sure as hell be open to the option. If Elon makes it available.

None of these players are on deathwatch yet(in their minds anyway). Wait until that happens before we decide what car maker boards will and will not do.

 

[EinSV]

Posted this in the Cybrtrk thread but in thinking about the truck, I'm wondering if the smart play is to license the drivetrain to American legacy auto.

As cool as the Cybertruck will be, it will simply not appeal to a stubborn customer base. And even if it did, you can't make a million of them per year yet. So sell the drivetrain to Ford/GM etc., and let them slap their familiar shells and beds on top. Middle America electrified. Happy truck owners with way lower TCO who got to keep buying "Murkan." Huge profits for Tesla. And sure, make your cool Cybertruck in volumes somewhere between Y and X and sell as many as you can to the folks that appreciate the unique aspects.

1. Elon has already said that if the Cybertruck doesn't get a positive reaction, they'll make a more conventional looking pickup.

2. It's pretty obvious they plan to make ~1 million Model Ys between Fremont, Shanghai and Berlin. No reason they can't make a million pickups too if there is enough demand to support it. (If there is not enough demand, see number 1).

3. Batteries and the battery supply chain are likely to be a constraint for the next several years at least. Doesn't make sense to provide skateboards to OEMs when selling the full car generates more profits and more cash, especially considering the potential for massive additional profits/cash generation per vehicle when the Tesla Network switch gets flipped on.

 

[StealthP3D]

Right, and what you are saying implies you do not think the F-150e will be successful.

Exactly! I wish it was going to be, but it's not. Not if it looks like a conventional pick-up.

My point is simply that, for a certain portion of the truck-buying population, F-150e with inferior specs will sell much much better than Cybertruck, no matter the specs on Cybertruck. Tesla can still cash in without having to try to swim against some strong cultural forces.

I couldn't disagree with you more. The current pick-up truck form factor is the result of needing a big engine under the hood. Tesla will never compromise its first principles design philosophy in order to placate "cultural forces" that have no longer have a basis for existing. Tesla was born to be a leader, not a follower.

 

[jerry33]

I don't know about that, I think the electric F-150 will probably do quite well if it can be priced somewhat reasonably. And I don't really care if their electric trucks aren't as efficient as they COULD BE, as long as they're buying electric.

The ones who [are smart enough to] appreciate the distinctions you're making will buy Cybertruck anyways.

Have your cake and eat it too is what I'm saying.

If their first experience is poor, it will set back EVs twenty years. This actually happened to tubeless truck tires. The very first ones were poor (1950s) and it wasn't until the mid seventies that they started being accepted. Truck owners aren't going to accept a truck that only gets 100 miles when towing or with a camper body.

 

[Toolsmack]

This ‘battle’ is more like a pillow fight based on the lack of volume today.

What I’ve never understood about options expiration days is why $350.01 is sooooo much worse than $349.99. If a call option expires today for $350 and then close is $350.01, how much money is someone actually making or losing on that?

I’ve never dabbled in options obviously.

 

[woodisgood]

I couldn't disagree with you more. The current pick-up truck form factor is the result of needing a big engine under the hood. Tesla will never compromise its first principles design philosophy in order to placate "cultural forces" that have no longer have a basis for existing. Tesla was born to be a leader, not a follower.

I couldn't agree with you more on Tesla, and that's why we all love Tesla. But I remain completely unconvinced that a large portion of the people we would really like, nay, NEED, to get on board are going to.

I would love love to be wrong about that.