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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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LOL. I can easily see THAT conversation happening:

“I’m not getting one of them foreign “Teslas”. I’m getting a made-in-America Mach-E!”

“Uh, Tesla is made in America.”

“Oh”

“And the Mach-E is made in Mexico”

Oh”.
Both are made in America, just in two different North American countries. Mexico produced vehicles have preferred access to Mercosur, more dependable access to EU and a few other points. Good location by Ford imo
 
This might have been said/discussed already, but with the mach-E coming out as another EV and the specs still not hitting the target, it's almost as if the other automakers are in a battle against each other without knowing it. They all think they have to beat Tesla, when in reality one of them out of the old group must survive. Tesla already found the key to the game.

So throw out as many new EVs as you want old vanguard, it's your game to lose.
 
So found out there are 378 Powerpacks been shipped to Australia since October and 20 more on the sea for a cool total of 398 Powerpacks for Q4.

There are couple smaller Powerpacks shipment that's not assigned to Tesla Australia, not counting those to the industrial project.

210kWh * 398 = 83.58 MWh

Also saw BYTON sending a vehicle chassis to Shanghai.
 
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Question: What is different about Ford from the other automakers in terms of sales approach?

GM dealers don't want to sell the Bolt. What would make Ford believe that their dealers will want to sell the Mach-E?




I have a friend who is a Fleet salesman at a local dealership who asked me what I thought of the Mach E show. I said it looks nice but he will try to flip customers to the Ford Edge for twenty grand less. He replied immediately with a thumbs up emoji.
 
My take on the Mach-E is we have seen competitor EVs appear to promise so much when the specs were first published, only for the final product to disappoint or ship in low volumes.... I'm keeping an open mind, but promising is easy, delivery is harder.
Overall other car makers are slowly getting more experience building EVs and momentum is gradually building.

I think Tesla is reasonably confident that they can innovate faster than the competition, it will be good to have some competition.

I fully agree that engineering, design and process improvements are they key to lowering production costs and improving the products at the same time. EVs are still fairly new, and it seems that there is considerable potential to further improve the products.

At this stage, I think most car makers can make an EV that is better than an ICE, but none can make a car that is better than a Tesla, they will improve, but Tesla will probably improve faster...

Germany, China and the US, are close to the 3 ideal countries to do engineering and design work. Tesla will need to leverage the unique talent available in each location

It think we will soon see most car makers drop or scale back ICE R&D, with a corresponding ramp up of EV R&D


I view the Mach E as a solid first attempt. Ford needs a lot more battery to reach the range of a Model Y, but kudos to Ford for at least designing a car with enough battery to reach ~300 miles of range. The Mach E will be a much more practical vehicle than the I-Pace or E-Tron for most buyers.

The Ford will have to find a way to absorb the extra cost of the larger battery but they may well be able to do so and still make a profit. If we assume a $150/kWh pack level cost for Ford, the extra 25kWh works out to $3,750 in added cost. That is a handicap for sure, but not necessarily a crippling one.

The lack of a competitive charging network and slow charge rates are going to be big challenges.
 
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I think Nocturnal was suggesting that because car purchases are so rare, the true measure of where we are is the percentage of folks that intend to or will “strongly consider” an EV as their next vehicle purchase, even if that purchase is 1-3 years out. Those surveys are looking pretty strong as far as pro-EV sentiment goes.
Yes, sentiment is shifting, but these types of polls are often misleading. What buyers tell a pollster and what they do are often different, which companies often discover to their dismay. The big shift will be when consumers only consider an EV, and the purchase of an ICE car seems the foolish thing. I’m suggesting that may not be that far off, and it may be a reasonably abrupt shift. That’s the big danger for legacy companies. If the EV market ends up being supply controlled by battery capacity, it would be incredibly bullish for Tesla. The next five years are going to be ‘interesting times’ for the automotive industry.
 
Wishful thinking.

First off, we start by presuming that Ford even can update the motor controller OTA, which is a big IF (see Jaguar's inability to update their brake control system despite having "OTA updates).

Secondly, the Ford design is clearly a dual PM system. You can't freewheel a PM like you can an induction motor; you can't shut off permanent magnets. Hence a 10% difference in range between the FWD and AWD versions.

Third, like most inefficient vehicles, the efficiency isn't so much from the powertrain as it is from the vehicle itself: aerodynamics primary, weight and tires secondary, other loss mechanisms tertiary. Contrary to popular myth, you cannot make any arbitrary-shaped vehicle be efficient if your engineers are just "clever enough".

In general I agree with what you are saying, with some tweaks:

First, I assume that since most consumers look at rated range, this will remain a priority for all companies interested in selling EVs. I seriously doubt that Ford was able to identify the absolute best software package without having a working fleet of cars to derive data from. The endless prototype hours are not the same as few thousand / tens of thousand cars on the road.

Secondly, not everything in terms of improving range is about freewheeling the motor. Other parts that can be optimized:
1. Regenerative braking protocol
2. Battery heating / cooling protocol
3. How much of the battery is locked to prevent bricking

If Ford is foolish enough not to try to improve their product, too bad for them. Somehow though I think they realize the potential - again taking from Tesla's experience.
 
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Secondly, not everything in terms of improving range is about freewheeling the motor. Other parts that can be optimized:
1. Regenerative braking protocol
2. Battery heating / cooling protocol
3. How much of the battery is locked to prevent bricking

If Ford is foolish enough not to try to improve their product, too bad for them. Somehow though I think they realize the potential - again taking from Tesla's experience.

Yep and it goes further than that SoylentBrown said the reason some cars get such bad range is that they used off the shelf sensors and electronics that were too power hungry.

Every watt counts when you're not wasting 80% of the energy being used.