Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

Sold 100 shares. Still have a truckload more. Thank me later

Wimp.

Spoiler: If it's not clear...

 

[Todd Burch]

OK, feels like the MMD is just about complete. Maybe a few more minutes. Market, you may buy again.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Look (for maybe a minute if you can stomach it) at this March interview with Linnette Lopez on Elon Musk, Tesla and GF3,

Lopez is oozing with contempt for Elon Musk and Tesla to the point that I can easily imagine that her associate Chanos duped her into also shorting Tesla.

Considering that Lopez as a journalist is supposed to show some objectiveness in her reporting, I find that there would be some justice in her now having to wonder how to best cover such a short position.

With $TSLA there is never a dull moment.

She seems kind of bullish to me. I only saw one car fire.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

"Jobs was a poser. He didn't even write code."

 

[ReflexFunds]

Does anyone think there will be any comment on CyberTruck production location at the reveal?

It would seem to make most sense to produce CyberTruck at the same location as Semi, because they can likely share a new US paint shop even if they are on completely different platforms.
Given Semi is supposed to be in production next year and Fremont is already maxed out with 3,Y S&X, it would seem to me that a GF1 extension is the only place where Semi tooling and equipment can be installed so quickly. Plus there is significant battery shipping cost advantages from a shared battery & car production location given the weight of batteries in each Semi.
Therefore it seems logical that CyberTruck will also be manufactured at GF1. However its still very possible Tesla will announce an all new US factory for CyberTruck, perhaps aiming for production by mid to late 2021. I would be very happy with GF5 as the "one more thing" at the CyberTruck event.

I also wonder about Roadster 2 production location. Presumably it will share much of its Powertrain with Plaid S&X, and Roadster assembly could likely also be done on the S&X GA lines. However I doubt there will be space for a Roadster body line at Fremont, and Roadster production may also complicate the Fremont paint shop. Overall I'd say Roadster is most likely made at Fremont, but maybe it will be at GF1 and perhaps part of Plaid S&X will be produced at GF1 too.

 

[Paracelsus]

Sold 100 shares. Still have a truckload more. Thank me later

Hoping you can help me understand why you sold 100 shares at 360'ish if you are sincerely convinced the price will be $700 by the end of the week. Thanks in advance

 

[Thumper]

New Jersey supercharger fire LIE , still up on CNBC!

 

[Tslynk67]

That's some MMD today - shorties' last stand?

 

[anthonyj]

Hoping you can help me understand why you sold 100 shares at 360'ish if you are sincerely convinced the price will be $700 by the end of the week. Thanks in advance

I have $600 strike calls for every date

 

[Remus]

I don`t fully agree either. People say this a lot but forget, that

• buying a smartphone vs your feature phone was a few-hundred-dollar decisions (carrier subsidies) vs buying a car which is for most people the second biggest purchase they make in their life beside their home
• because of the above people think about the worst case scenario (once a year 600 mile trip) and can be hesitant to make a change "until an EV can drive a 1000 miles".
• because of the above people may also be worried about depreciation of early EVs when new technology jump/higher range EVs come out "any time now" - I have a friend who is very vocal on this aspect
• buying a smartphone had 1 major "needs getting used to" factor besides a learning curve for the UI: charging daily vs charging weekly. But since you normally charge at night it wasn`t a deal breaker. EVs can potentially inconvenience people who are without a home charging option

and so on and so forth.

Spending 200 bucks on a smartphone != spending 50k on a car.

PS: where I do see the smartphone analogy work though is profits. We may very well get into a scenario where it`s like Apple taking 99% of all profits vs all the Android makers making losses or barely breaking even. Tesla could be in that "Apple position" with it`s cool factor/market positioning, technology advantage, integrated battery production/low cell cost, self-driving tech.

Isn't this where the traditional OEMs EV come in and make more people open to EVs?

 

[KarenRei]

Does anyone think there will be any comment on CyberTruck production location at the reveal?

It would seem to make most sense to produce CyberTruck at the same location as Semi, because they can likely share a new US paint shop even if they are on completely different platforms.
Given Semi is supposed to be in production next year and Fremont is already maxed out with 3,Y S&X, it would seem to me that a GF1 extension is the only place where Semi tooling and equipment can be installed so quickly. Plus there is significant battery shipping cost advantages from a shared battery & car production location given the weight of batteries in each Semi.
Therefore it seems logical that CyberTruck will also be manufactured at GF1. However its still very possible Tesla will announce an all new US factory for CyberTruck, perhaps aiming for production by mid to late 2021. I would be very happy with GF5 as the "one more thing" at the CyberTruck event.

I also wonder about Roadster 2 production location. Presumably it will share much of its Powertrain with Plaid S&X, and Roadster assembly could likely also be done on the S&X GA lines. However I doubt there will be space for a Roadster body line at Fremont, and Roadster production may also complicate the Fremont paint shop. Overall I'd say Roadster is most likely made at Fremont, but maybe it will be at GF1 and perhaps part of Plaid S&X will be produced at GF1 too.

I do think GF1 is a likely place for vehicle lines. It's been extensively discussed at Tesla and was nearly chosen for MY. I do wonder if they'll alter the design, however. Note the "similar but different" design for GF3:

One of the big things Tesla has learned is that warehousing and part conveyance sucks, and it's best just to have trucks drive straight to workstations. I wonder if they'd bisect the factory with one or more roads lined with loading docks.

 

[mongo]

Does anyone think there will be any comment on CyberTruck production location at the reveal?

It would seem to make most sense to produce CyberTruck at the same location as Semi, because they can likely share a new US paint shop even if they are on completely different platforms.
Given Semi is supposed to be in production next year and Fremont is already maxed out with 3,Y S&X, it would seem to me that a GF1 extension is the only place where Semi tooling and equipment can be installed so quickly. Plus there is significant battery shipping cost advantages from a shared battery & car production location given the weight of batteries in each Semi.
Therefore it seems logical that CyberTruck will also be manufactured at GF1. However its still very possible Tesla will announce an all new US factory for CyberTruck, perhaps aiming for production by mid to late 2021. I would be very happy with GF5 as the "one more thing" at the CyberTruck event.

I also wonder about Roadster 2 production location. Presumably it will share much of its Powertrain with Plaid S&X, and Roadster assembly could likely also be done on the S&X GA lines. However I doubt there will be space for a Roadster body line at Fremont, and Roadster production may also complicate the Fremont paint shop. Overall I'd say Roadster is most likely made at Fremont, but maybe it will be at GF1 and perhaps part of Plaid S&X will be produced at GF1 too.

It seems like an important point to address at the reveal and I lean toward GF5.
GF1 is full, so even building it there will require more construction. It is also far from the raw materials needed for chassis/ frame. Whereas the current vehicles are stamped, semi (and possibly pickup) will need large frame rails, semi also needs the rear axle castings. A more central factory/ closer to steel mill would be advantageous.

Long term, I see GF1 in general becoming the home of Tesla energy cells, with vehicle cells assembled in the same factory as the vehicles they go into. Integration of Maxwell dry electrode tech would greatly compact the require space. Same thing with motors. Its a lower running cost to install the new equipment on site rather than incur additional shipping costs.

Roadster could be a more manual line anywhere there is stamping capacity. I'd lean toward GF5 with pickup.

Also agree for @KarenRei that GF1's current layout is not conducive to vehicle assembly. Which isn't to say they could not change the shape of the additions.

 

[Mkorpal]

It seems like an important point to address at the reveal and I lean toward GF5.
GF1 is full, so even building it there will require more construction. It is also far from the raw materials needed for chassis/ frame. Whereas the current vehicles are stamped, semi (and possibly pickup) will need large frame rails, semi also needs the rear axle castings. A more central factory/ closer to steel mill would be advantageous.

Long term, I see GF1 in general becoming the home of Tesla energy cells, with vehicle cells assembled in the same factory as the vehicles they go into. Integration of Maxwell dry electrode tech would greatly compact the require space. Same thing with motors. Its a lower running cost to install the new equipment on site rather than incur additional shipping costs.

Roadster could be a more manual line anywhere there is stamping capacity. I'd lean toward GF5 with pickup.

Also agree for @KarenRei that GF1's current layout is not conducive to vehicle assembly. Which isn't to say they could not change the shape of the additions.

I know somewhere where a brand new steel mill is supposedly being developed!

 

[JRP3]

To put it another way, Iceland probably had a strong influence on Mordor

As the source of ultimate evil?

 

[FreqFlyer]

It seems like an important point to address at the reveal and I lean toward GF5.
GF1 is full, so even building it there will require more construction. It is also far from the raw materials needed for chassis/ frame. Whereas the current vehicles are stamped, semi (and possibly pickup) will need large frame rails, semi also needs the rear axle castings. A more central factory/ closer to steel mill would be advantageous.

Long term, I see GF1 in general becoming the home of Tesla energy cells, with vehicle cells assembled in the same factory as the vehicles they go into. Integration of Maxwell dry electrode tech would greatly compact the require space. Same thing with motors. Its a lower running cost to install the new equipment on site rather than incur additional shipping costs.

Roadster could be a more manual line anywhere there is stamping capacity. I'd lean toward GF5 with pickup.

Also agree for @KarenRei that GF1's current layout is not conducive to vehicle assembly. Which isn't to say they could not change the shape of the additions.

Well, the original plan for the Tesla plant was supposed to be in New Mexico by ABQ. Maybe a new location there, the southeast, or even Buffalo where they are making solar panels now. Building a GF5 in Buffalo will allow Tesla to fulfill any covenants made with the local or state officials in regards to employment numbers.

 

[ReflexFunds]

GF1 is full, so even building it there will require more construction.

This is true, however, I assumed much of the building foundations for expansion are already in place at GF1. The same with utilities, road infrastructure, electricity supply etc. I think they also already have permits for significant footprint expansion given the current building still is only a fraction of the initial plan.

I still think it will be much quicker and cheaper to expand GF1 than it will to build GF5 from scratch. This is more important for Semi given guidance is for production within one year.

 

[KarenRei]

As the source of ultimate evil?

"In other news, Mordor is under fire due to revelations that the Nazgûl have been paying bribes to Gondor court officials to secure the rights to the kingdom's fishing quotas...."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Well, the original plan for the Tesla plant was supposed to be in New Mexico by ABQ. Maybe a new location there, the southeast, or even Buffalo where they are making solar panels now. Building a GF5 in Buffalo will allow Tesla to fulfill any covenants made with the local or state officials in regards to employment numbers.

Employment numbers in Buffalo are easily attained with Energy products. Something like 1,460 by end of April and escalating slightly from there. Easy peasy considering the solar roof ramp and ongoing traditional panel work.

 

[WarpedOne]

-
edit: Wrong forum ...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Listen.....I don't wanna get flamed here, but my friend Linette(who's in the know) told me they don't even test the brakes before delivery. I'm not saying it's a fact, I'm just saying it sounds very dangerous. Also, did you read Consumer Reports???