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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If they eliminated this stupid tax Tesla could pay for flights to California, provide plant tours and drive a ton of tourism. Win win win!

OT

Although there are good politicians, overall as a group their intelligence, honesty, integrity... rank near the bottom in our society. I'm confident in the long run the society will overcome their drag.
 
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What do you mean? Took 2 years to get the Model 3 out after revealing...and probably 4 years for Semi/Roadster.

Tesla loves to generate buzz. Announcing the car doesn't mean production will start for any car company. I mean how many concept EVs have we seen from all the legacy automakers that are still a no show? It's kind of how the industry works.

In fact, the reason why people even talk about "future competition" is because all these legacy car makers showed off their concepts. Tesla can't just sit on the sideline and show nothing.
It’s all conjecture, but I thought Elon said they may delay the Y unveil a bit. I think that makes sense to push out a few months, shorten the antiselling window, and do the reveal and reservation window a bit different. With a shorter reveal to production gap, Tesla can do a 2500 deposit, reduce negative impact on 3 demand and either still get 500,000 deposit and a billion in the bank, or get a little less pressure and plan for a similar ramp as model 3 and likely over deliver. The Model Y is likely to be twice as big a market as the 3, so delaying a bit while Model 3 is still finishing the global rollout seems logical to me. I’ve been wrong about SX redesigns so far, so take that with a grain of salt. Who knows, maybe a June Y and pickup reveal with updates XS models as well? Even Steve Jobs never had and another another another thing show.
 
I think Antonio is a parade account, but it got me thinking of a correction:
2022 Q1 26B
2022 Q2 28B
2022 Q3 31B
Getting there with consistent growth:
2019 32-35B
2020 45-50B
2021 75-80B

Assumes Midel Y ramp is not extremely fast and pickup and semi are not kicking in big numbers until 2022. Tesla Energy growth should continue at 100-200% and maybe even faster. The Hornsdale math needs to be replicated here in the USA on a bigger scale. Amazon, which has been using storage to reduce commercial energy costs is way ahead of the pack. TE numbers start mattering in 2020 and will get attn from analysts after revenue passes 10B. Gene Munster and Kathy Wood are going to look like geniuses vs rest of investment community for looking at the fundamentals.

My personal best guess for revenue growth is:
2019: $32b
2020: $45b
2021: $60b
2022: $78b
2023: $100b
2024: $125b
 
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I think Antonio is a parade account, but it got me thinking of a correction:
2022 Q1 26B
2022 Q2 28B
2022 Q3 31B
Getting there with consistent growth:
2019 32-35B
2020 45-50B
2021 75-80B

Assumes Midel Y ramp is not extremely fast and pickup and semi are not kicking in big numbers until 2022. Tesla Energy growth should continue at 100-200% and maybe even faster. The Hornsdale math needs to be replicated here in the USA on a bigger scale. Amazon, which has been using storage to reduce commercial energy costs is way ahead of the pack. TE numbers start mattering in 2020 and will get attn from analysts after revenue passes 10B. Gene Munster and Kathy Wood are going to look like geniuses vs rest of investment community for looking at the fundamentals.

I came up with a similar back of the envelope guesstimate for 2021. And 2022-2023 should be even better with Semi and Pickup kicking in and everything else continuing to ramp.

Tesla's projected capex for 2019 is only $2.5B. In the Q3 report, Tesla said that anticipated capex for 2020 was $2.5-$3.0B.

In 2H 2018, Tesla had operating cash flow of $5.2B (annualized). That is enough to fund their projected capex for 2019 and 2020 with $5B to spare to pay off debt, shore up the balance sheet and maybe even have discretionary funds available for new projects or to accelerate production ramps.

And with revenue increasing and margins improving through 2019-20 their cash flow over the next two years could be even greater. IMO that is highly likely.

Tesla's current plan has it ramping to 10K per week Model 3 by mid-2020, and also ramping Model Y production up during 2020. The most recent info I've seen on Model Y production targets were 12K/week by Feb. 2021 (from the leaked document in October). Tesla Model Y to have third-row seat, mid-2020 production at Gigafactory 1 according to leaked docs

Even if we assume the Model Y production ramps more slowly than that document suggests (Tesla said the numbers are outdated), by the end of 2021 production could be at 600K Model 3s and 600K Model Ys. Plus production of Semi (probably still low volume), storage sales increasing 8X (100% per year for 3 years), solar roof ramping, plus Roadster and early stages of pickup sales.

For 2021, revenues could look something like:

1.1M 3/Y @$45K=$49.5B
100K S/X @$100K=$10B
Tesla Energy=$8B
Semi 10K@$165K=$1.65B
Roadster 3K@$210K=$630M
Pickup 50K@$50K=$2.5B
Service and other=$4B

Total= $76.3B

That's a CAGR from 2018 of about 52%.


Margins and cash flow on this product mix should be high (although held back a bit by products in the early stages of ramping). Profitability may improve as well, although I think Tesla is more focused on maximizing cash flow than GAAP profits, since cash is what allows them to fund expanded production.

While Tesla could fall short of these plans, there is also room for upside, including on 3/Y.

Also, how about that opex decrease in Q4? Pretty impressive and more operating leverage projected in 2019.

IMO they beat almost everyone's expectations on operating expenses in 2018 -- especially in Q3 and Q4 -- and the projection for more of the same in 2019 seems extremely positive to me. Their more efficient business model -- selling cars and energy over the internet -- looks like it is paying off.
 
Is everyone ready for super-bull Sunday? Audi's commercial is out.
Nice to see other companies spending advertising dollars on EVs. Should bring in plenty of new Tesla customers.
Their usa product page strangely does not advertise its full range.

Turns out the e tron can only do roughly 200 miles (EPA) with 95 kwh battery. Their advertisement therefore focus on charging speed i.e. 30 minutes charging gives you this much range. They bring in model x for comparison but seems to have understated its 30 minutes charging range.

To me its a very underwhelming product.
 
Their usa product page strangely does not advertise its full range.

Turns out the e tron can only do roughly 200 miles (EPA) with 95 kwh battery. Their advertisement therefore focus on charging speed i.e. 30 minutes charging gives you this much range. They bring in model x for comparison but seems to have understated its 30 minutes charging range.

To me its a very underwhelming product.

And they only cool the underside of their battery pack, too; degradation on high power charges is going to be quite bad. Of course, few people are going to be doing many 150kW charges since CCSv2 chargers are so rare.
 
Should I support Patriots or Rams? The Rams owner owns my soccer team (Arsenal). We don't like him (Stan Kroenke) much for lack of investment but I understand he is loved in LA (but not St Louis).
Go Dolphins! Surely Marino can come out of retirement - Tom Brady keeps on going!

h615AF66A
 
Apologies if this has already been mentioned, but I wonder if Tesla will try to time announcing of Model Y and/or pickup to try to juice the stock price for the upcoming bond repayment

Not likely, the bond repayment details are subject to the stock price over a 20 day period if I recall correctly, and to impact that they would have to have the release like now.

They are just going to pay in cash like they originally said they would.
 
Not likely, the bond repayment details are subject to the stock price over a 20 day period if I recall correctly, and to impact that they would have to have the release like now.

They are just going to pay in cash like they originally said they would.

Indeed. Also, no bull should be wanting them to raise capital or pay off debt with equity, when it's possible to do otherwise. Unless one thinks that the value of the stock is going to grow more slowly than whatever interest rates it would have to pay on a capital raise via debt....