Tesla's projected capex for 2019 is only $2.5B. In the Q3 report, Tesla said that anticipated capex for 2020 was $2.5-$3.0B.
In 2H 2018, Tesla had operating cash flow of $5.2B (annualized). That is enough to fund their projected capex for 2019 and 2020 with $5B to spare to pay off debt, shore up the balance sheet and maybe even have discretionary funds available for new projects or to accelerate production ramps.
And with revenue increasing and margins improving through 2019-20 their cash flow over the next two years could be even greater. IMO that is highly likely.
Tesla's current plan has it ramping to 10K per week Model 3 by mid-2020, and also ramping Model Y production up during 2020. The most recent info I've seen on Model Y production targets were 12K/week by Feb. 2021 (from the leaked document in October).
Tesla Model Y to have third-row seat, mid-2020 production at Gigafactory 1 according to leaked docs
Even if we assume the Model Y production ramps more slowly than that document suggests (Tesla said the numbers are outdated), by the end of 2021 production could be at 600K Model 3s and 600K Model Ys. Plus production of Semi (probably still low volume), storage sales increasing 8X (100% per year for 3 years), solar roof ramping, plus Roadster and early stages of pickup sales.
For 2021, revenues could look something like:
1.1M 3/Y @$45K=$49.5B
100K S/X @$100K=$10B
Tesla Energy=$8B
Semi 10K@$165K=$1.65B
Roadster 3K@$210K=$630M
Pickup 50K@$50K=$2.5B
Service and other=$4B
Total= $76.3B
That's a CAGR from 2018 of about 52%.
Margins and cash flow on this product mix should be high (although held back a bit by products in the early stages of ramping). Profitability may improve as well, although I think Tesla is more focused on maximizing cash flow than GAAP profits, since cash is what allows them to fund expanded production.
While Tesla could fall short of these plans, there is also room for upside, including on 3/Y.
Also, how about that opex decrease in Q4? Pretty impressive and more operating leverage projected in 2019.
IMO they beat almost everyone's expectations on operating expenses in 2018 -- especially in Q3 and Q4 -- and the projection for more of the same in 2019 seems extremely positive to me. Their more efficient business model -- selling cars and energy over the internet -- looks like it is paying off.