Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M3Rider]

I don't think this is OT as the event will have the biggest impact on SP for the near future.

In the near future there will be zero cybertrucks produced.

I think the only way it can affect SP is if Tesla takes reservations and makes that number public like with m3 and it shows 1m+, but we know Tesla will not do this, because of endless ensuing speculations about how many were cancelled, that's why didn't happen with the Y.

So...what we'll see is a result of China's first sales. If there's any enthusiasm about the truck, it will likely go away in a day or two.

Disagrees are welcome, will repost them in a week

 

[RFernatt]

Tesla will scout locations and make sure to avoid anywhere they see this guy

Yeah, he's definitely from southern West Virginia, probably near the Kentucky border and is named either Hatfield or McCoy and probably has both in the family tree. For a relatively small state, there is quite a bit of variation between the different areas and some similarities. Just don't make the mistake of visiting and calling it western Virginia. You might end up meeting this guy and his brothers out in the woods and having West "By God!" Virginia branded in a conspicuous location. I jest, sort of...

 

[StealthP3D]

If only there was a major product unveil soon...

I would like it if the Cybertruck pulls on stage pulling a big flatbed trailer loaded to the hilt. Four expert housebuilders in coveralls climb out of the truck and unload a surprising amount of tools. While Musk describes the features of the truck they get to work unloading everything needed to build a tiny home right on the stage. After erecting the walls and roof using three nailers running balls to the wall off the trucks AC outlets they put on solar shingles with screw guns whirring away in the background. It's all choreographed perfectly so the whole thing only takes 15 minutes (in the background) while Musk is describing the capabilities of the truck. When it's done, the lights shine on the just built tiny house and Musk describes the details of the solar roof and their rollout while the workman can be seen unloading a large cooler from the truck and cracking beers and toasting a job well done.

Well, that's not going to happen but it's a nice thought. Musk is more strategic and simple. It will be impressive to see the growing family of Tesla vehicles all lined up on stage! It used to be "look at the car we made". Now it's "look at our growing family of Tesla vehicles". Start your own fleet of clean, quiet, powerful electric vehicles!

 

[bhzmark]

Idea: Do we have any DC Tesla owners here? Call Markey (617-565-8519) and extend an offer to let him experience Autopilot in person to learn more about it. While it's probably unlikely you'd get taken up on your offer, but it may encourage him to try it regardless.

I'm in the area, but Markey likely only cares about people who can vote in Massachusetts.

It would be great if Tesla announced an OTA that distinguished between a super steady even uninterrupted pressure on the wheel that could only be caused by an inanimate object vs an actual hand on the wheel. And then Elon invited Sen. Markey in person to show him how it works and also share the safety stats about autopilot usage actually being safer and convert Markey be in favor of AP.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the only way it can affect SP is if Tesla takes reservations and makes that number public like with m3 and it shows 1m+, but we know Tesla will not do this, because of endless ensuing speculations about how many were cancelled, that's why didn't happen with the Y.

That's not right. The reason they didn't make a big deal with the Model Y and taking reservations is to avoid Osborning sales of their other cars. The truck is more additive to their other models so we will have to wait to see how they do it.

Also, the Cybertruck reveal might not just be about revealing the truck. They will have a huge audience to reveal any information they choose.

 

[dha]

Based on his Twitter feed it looks like Chanos' latest short obsession is PTON: Diogenes (@WallStCynic) | Twitter

Just in case you thought TSLA was a crowded short...PTON has a whopping 94% of float sold short. The intraday volatility has been nuts.

 

[EVNow]

Half joking but I do think they will go pretty all out for this event and there will be more then just the pickup truck. I think they are going to announce Model Y coming sooner and have a few of those drive out for a better reveal and look at them then the previous event.

Any Model Y talk (coming sooner etc) could only hurt 3 sales in the seasonally slow Q1. There is zero upside to announcing Y will come sooner.

ps : Not pointing to this one statement - but in general these kinds of expectations is why we have SP drop after unveils.

 

[winfield100]

Idea: Do we have any DC Tesla owners here? Call Markey (617-565-8519) and extend an offer to let him experience Autopilot in person to learn more about it. While it's probably unlikely you'd get taken up on your offer, but it may encourage him to try it regardless.

Contact
Evadc.org
There are a bunch of Tesla owners including a guy who got a fancy red powerwall due to referrals

 

[RFernatt]

I would like it if the Cybertruck pulls on stage pulling a big flatbed trailer loaded to the hilt. Four expert housebuilders in coveralls climb out of the truck and unload a surprising amount of tools. While Musk describes the features of the truck they get to work unloading everything needed to build a tiny home right on the stage. After erecting the walls and roof using three nailers running balls to the wall off the trucks AC outlets they put on solar shingles with screw guns whirring away in the background. It's all choreographed perfectly so the whole thing only takes 15 minutes (in the background) while Musk is describing the capabilities of the truck. When it's done, the lights shine on the just built tiny house and Musk describes the details of the solar roof and their rollout while the workman can be seen unloading a large cooler from the truck and cracking beers and toasting a job well done.

Well, that's not going to happen but it's a nice thought. Musk is more strategic and simple. It will be impressive to see the growing family of Tesla vehicles all lined up on stage! It used to be "look at the car we made". Now it's "look at our growing family of Tesla vehicles". Start your own fleet of clean, quiet, powerful electric vehicles!

I like this too, but I really want to see the Cybertruck towing a Falcon 9. Ford pulls a train with the F-150 EV? Puhlease. I'll see your 19th century train and raise you a 21st century reusable rocket.

 

[humbaba]

That's not right. The reason they didn't make a big deal with the Model Y and taking reservations is to avoid Osborning sales of their other cars. The truck is more additive to their other models so we will have to wait to see how they do it.

Also, the Cybertruck reveal might not just be about revealing the truck. They will have a huge audience to reveal any information they choose.

I think if Tesla does something more than just the truck an 'FSD is coming' announcement has a chance. Because a December release for early access/supervised is already anticipated it really isn't stretching anything. OTOH it isn't exactly something that makes for an on-stage demonstration.

 

[Nocturnal]

In the near future there will be zero cybertrucks produced.

I think the only way it can affect SP is if Tesla takes reservations and makes that number public like with m3 and it shows 1m+, but we know Tesla will not do this, because of endless ensuing speculations about how many were cancelled, that's why didn't happen with the Y.

So...what we'll see is a result of China's first sales. If there's any enthusiasm about the truck, it will likely go away in a day or two.

Disagrees are welcome, will repost them in a week

No way. If it looks weird SP will drop $20-30 bucks. If it looks great and the blow the presentation out of the water, good specs, pricing etc. we may see a small jump. The possible downside is bigger than potential upside.

 

[M3Rider]

The reason they didn't make a big deal with the Model Y and taking reservations is to avoid Osborning sales of their other cars.

When Elon was asked about the subject, he said that reservations don't really matter, when they have it available, then they will have real sales at that point. It was the same response he provided when was asked about cancellations in the past and he said it's because they didn't have the car available when people needed it. His words.

 

[woodisgood]

I think if Tesla does something more than just the truck an 'FSD is coming' announcement has a chance. Because a December release for early access/supervised is already anticipated it really isn't stretching anything. OTOH it isn't exactly something that makes for an on-stage demonstration.

Unless a Tesla arrives after having just completed a coast-to-coast drive. Which I know, is pretty unlikely at the moment.

 

[EVNow]

I’m probably going to invite a lot of comments.

Isn’t your comparison similar to the gun vs people debate?

I think the correct comparison is to Cruise Control. Currently it will run without anyone touching the wheel.

I'd suggest to Markley that a good solution would be to ban the use of cheating devices when using AP. Not sure at federal level they can do much about fining drivers for it, though.

 

[Swampgator]

Based on his Twitter feed it looks like Chanos' latest short obsession is PTON: Diogenes (@WallStCynic) | Twitter

Just in case you thought TSLA was a crowded short...PTON has a whopping 94% of float sold short. The intraday volatility has been nuts.

His utter silence on TSLA tell you everything. He is trying to cover right now, quietly.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm in the area, but Markey likely only cares about people who can vote in Massachusetts.

It would be great if Tesla announced an OTA that distinguished between a super steady even uninterrupted pressure on the wheel that could only be caused by an inanimate object vs an actual hand on the wheel. And then Elon invited Sen. Markey in person to show him how it works and also share the safety stats about autopilot usage actually being safer and convert Markey be in favor of AP.

+1 I thought about this a while back. Surely the system could detect a weight that doesn't vary for X amount of time vs pressure that varies constantly or almost constantly.

 

[humbaba]

Unless a Tesla arrives after having just completed a coast-to-coast drive. Which I know, is pretty unlikely at the moment.

Say they did that... so what? I mean, where's the proof? All the audience will see is a car driving up and then Tesla saying it has gone coast to coast autonomously.

I do think it moderately likely that FSD will get an announcement, I'm just having a hard time seeing how it would be more impactful than him just tweeting it.

With autonomy day they provided participants with an autonomous ride on the public roads. But you can't do that on a stage.

Maybe if the car was in-progress and they put up a live feed?

 

[woodisgood]

Say they did that... so what? I mean, where's the proof? All the audience will see is a car driving up and then Tesla saying it has gone coast to coast autonomously.

I do think it moderately likely that FSD will get an announcement, I'm just having a hard time seeing how it would be more impactful than him just tweeting it.

With autonomy day they provided participants with an autonomous ride on the public roads. But you can't do that on a stage.

Maybe if the car was in-progress and they put up a live feed?

Yeah there'd have to be a live feed involved, or the announcement of a website where you could follow the live feed or view the already recorded video of it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Say they did that... so what? I mean, where's the proof? All the audience will see is a car driving up and then Tesla saying it has gone coast to coast autonomously.

I do think it moderately likely that FSD will get an announcement, I'm just having a hard time seeing how it would be more impactful than him just tweeting it.

With autonomy day they provided participants with an autonomous ride on the public roads. But you can't do that on a stage.

Maybe if the car was in-progress and they put up a live feed?

I think if they were show continuous video feed of FSD working from multiple cars(can be recorded footage, just has to be continuous and not edited) and then said "This will be releasing in 2 weeks for beta testers", then sh*t gets real in terms of FSD coming, both from a usability standpoint and also the revenue that it will bring it. I think there could a lot of anticipation of FSD attachment skyrocketing if Elon then said, add FSD to your existing car or your purchase/order to lock in the 7k price because it will jump to 8-9k when FSD feature complete starts rolling out to all FSD Tesla's.

 

[floydboy]

Based on his Twitter feed it looks like Chanos' latest short obsession is PTON: Diogenes (@WallStCynic) | Twitter

Just in case you thought TSLA was a crowded short...PTON has a whopping 94% of float sold short. The intraday volatility has been nuts.

Glad the shorters are around to keep these unruly startups in check. Wouldn't want these guys to start growing or anything!