Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Tesla has better do a better job with this reveal than the Y. I want to see the truck come out pulling a rocket. We have this really cool brand that launches things into space, leverage it for some extra cool factor. (especially with the cyber punk theme) Then have it do some 0-60 launches or something, drive through some deep mud puddles with a few sheets of plywood in the back. Power some heavy power tools from the built in 220v outlet etc.

I don't think this is OT as the event will have the biggest impact on SP for the near future.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Tesla has better do a better job with this reveal than the Y. I want to see the truck come out pulling a rocket. We have this really cool brand that launches things into space, leverage it for some extra cool factor. (especially with the cyber punk theme) Then have it do some 0-60 launches or something, drive through some deep mud puddles with a few sheets of plywood in the back. Power some heavy power tools from the built in 220v outlet etc.

I don't think this is OT as the event will have the biggest impact on SP for the near future.

And a Catchy song too go with it!

 

[Nocturnal]

And a Catchy song too go with it!

Unexplained fires are a matter for the shorts!

I don't know how much you were joking but yeah. It needs to be over the top and macho if they want to make an impression in the truck market.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Half joking but I do think they will go pretty all out for this event and there will be more then just the pickup truck. I think they are going to announce Model Y coming sooner and have a few of those drive out for a better reveal and look at them then the previous event.

 

[mblakele]

Idea: Do we have any DC Tesla owners here? Call Markey (617-565-8519) and extend an offer to let him experience Autopilot in person to learn more about it. While it's probably unlikely you'd get taken up on your offer, but it may encourage him to try it regardless.

Good idea. I wonder if asking Lex Fridman to chime in would be helpful? An MIT Professor ought to have some credibility with a senator.

 

[PhatCat]

Tired of the trade deal, tired of rumors, tired of non news, tired of algos.

If only there was a major product unveil soon...

 

[larmor]

Why Tesla investors are not scared of Ford's Mach E. Watch the video.

Consumers Will Continue to Buy Tesla Cars Because of the 'Brand'

Plus alot of apple iphone users are waiting for ford to come out with the Phone-E

 

[Tslynk67]

Sorry, at a gig with of my kids (not even Prog or Metal ), but we’re still above $350, which was anathema last week...

Keep strong folks! HODL!!

 

[anthonyj]

Half joking but I do think they will go pretty all out for this event and there will be more then just the pickup truck. I think they are going to announce Model Y coming sooner and have a few of those drive out for a better reveal and look at them then the previous event.

Elon won’t waste this moment to screw the shorts, that’s for sure.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Half joking but I do think they will go pretty all out for this event and there will be more then just the pickup truck. I think they are going to announce Model Y coming sooner and have a few of those drive out for a better reveal and look at them then the previous event.

I'm still keeping to my prediction of FSD demonstration and some sort of announcement of it going out to early beta testers in Dec

 

[CorneliusXX]

Nice to see Elon holding their feet to the fire.

 

[Off Shore]

If only there was a major product unveil soon...

...to cause the stock price to drop another $20...

 

[Thekiwi]

Well we didn’t get a denial form Chanos before, but with Elon responding to that tweet we sure will be seeing some reaction in the press now one way or another about Chanos.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon won’t waste this moment to screw the shorts, that’s for sure.

He has plenty of potential ammunition hiding in the wings they won't be suspecting. Let's hope he uses it to good effect!

I love the smell of shorts burning in the morning!

 

[LN1_Casey]

And a Catchy song too go with it!

At this time, the Shortsville Times still hasn't ruled out Autopilot involvement. A spoke person from Tesla laughed then hung up the phone when asked.

 

[ZeApelido]

Every day, 29 people in the United States die in motor vehicle crashes caused by an alcohol-impaired driver. We don't ban vehicles just because drunk drivers can use them. We punish the drunk drivers.

We need better proof from Tesla on Autopilot safety.

I'm not trying to sound pessimistic, but as a data scientist, I can see the reports of autopilot miles vs non-autopilot miles are essential conditional probabilities, not a direct comparison.

Portions of highway that users choose to use Autopilot may not be the same as the portions they choose not to use it. So you can't compare accident rates between them. Tesla needs to compare accident rates on/off Autopilot for the same segments of highways. I'm sure they have the data to do this.

 

[Lessmog]

Finally caught up. Very sorry about the delay, and any involuntary gas leaks, as well as offing topic or aggravating mods.

TL/DR; Avoid spilling methane. Not politic.

The trouble with NG is leaking pipelines. Fugitive emissions of CH4/methane have nearly as much global warming potential as all the NG burned properly inside plants.

Since CH4 has 36x the GWP of CO2 over 100 yrs, it only takes a 2.9% leakage rate from wellhead to furnace to completely negate the advantage of NG over coal.

But you can't run NG peaker plants without that NG drilling and pipeline infrastructure. So sorry, your're wrong: NG Peaker plants are part of the problem, and they have to go.

More here: "New Natural Gas Plants Can “Lock In” High Emissions for Decades"

Canada Is Replacing Coal With Natural Gas — And That’s A Huge Problem | The Narwhal

GE disagrees on the threat that battery storage poses to NG peaker plants:

Energy Storage Poses a Growing Threat to Peaker Plants

I have a lot of trouble believing that the leak rate for power plants is anywhere near 2,9%. Perhaps for home distribution you might get a couple percent (I have no trouble believing that!), but NG power plants involve dramatically simpler distribution systems, much more controlled circumstances than hundreds of millions of homes withpipes in various states of disrepair snaking through walls and floors, and people with their pilot lights out spewing gas, people leaking gas as they fire up their stoves, etc etc.

I'll need to dig through some of the papers when I get a chance, to see what they actually say. But I seriously, seriously doubt any meaningful fraction of the leaks come from peakers and the distribution infrastructure leading up to them.

Furthermore, let's just pretend it's true. Let's pretend that peaker warming impact is literally doubled. So? Peaker warming impact is almost nothing compared to other sources. Almost nothing times 2... let's see.... multiply by the nothing... carry the nothing...



Your article (from "Thenarwhal.ca") doesn't load for me, but from the title, it does not sound like it's about peakers. Coal isn't being replaced by peakers, it's being replaced by combined cycle baseload NG plants.

And I'll reiterate: they can't "go" because we literally do not currently have a realistic, cost-effective system to replace them in terms of backup power for multi-day geographically-broad wind-solar lulls, which legitimately do occur far too statistically commonly to ignore. Maybe some day we will, but that day is not today.

Try pricing amortizing, say, 5 days of storage. Tesla's large projects are $350/kWh installed. That's $42k/kW/5d. Amorized over the 15-year lifespan at 5% interest, $332/mo/kW. Do you find that acceptable? And we're only talking a 5-day lull. Bad weather patterns can lock in longer than that. The worst case is a major volcanic eruption, which can dim the whole globe dramatically for many months on end. Laki's last eruption for example froze the Mississippi at New Orleans. Writers wrote of burning-glasses (magnifyng glasses for starting fires) being unable to ignite dry brush.

But that's an extreme case. Simple lulls, however, are not.

Peaker plants don't exist outside the natural gas fracking and pipeline system. Leaks are the source of the problem, and NG Peakers are part of the system:

The Natural Gas Industry Has a Leak Problem | NY Times June 21, 2018

"The new study, published Thursday in the journal Science, puts the rate of methane emissions from domestic oil and gas operations at 2.3 percent of total production per year

"A recent study found that natural gas power plants could actually be worse for climate change than coal plants if their leakage rate rose above 4 percent."​

So in response to this finding, the EPA decided to loosen NG emission standards:

Curbs on Methane, Potent Greenhouse Gas, to Be Relaxed in U.S. | NY Times Aug 29, 2019

"WASHINGTON - The Trump administration laid out on Thursday a far-reaching plan to cut back on the regulation of methane emissions, a major contributor to climate change."​

No NG, no peakers. Peakers are part of the problem.

Mod rant:
I moved the political crap. I probably should have deleted it instead. But here's the thing. The moderators are fed up with people ignoring the guidelines, and the software only allows us to deal with one issue at a time.

So:
No more politics in this thread.
No more Unsworth in this thread.
No more Technical Analysis in this thread.

-- ggr.

BUT there was in fact an enormous methane leak in Aliso Canyon, Calif a few years ago. Some film team associated with Leilani the race driver caught it on special filtered camera from planes. Inhabitants of the area suffered from previously unexplained respiratory and other afflictions.

California methane leak 'largest in US history' - BBC News

https://www.bbc.com › news › science-environment-35659947
Feb 26, 2016 - A leaking natural gas well in southern California vented almost 100000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere before it was plugged.

 

[ZeApelido]

Being from WV, I'd say it's unlikely that Tesla or anyone would locate anything of size in the coal (southern) region of the state even though it would be great for the people living there. It is geographically isolated and not really in a tristate area unless you go far west and more north to get into the WV-KY-OH tri-state area. Flat land in that part of the state is at a premium unless you can work with a reclaimed mine site, which may work, but infrastructure (roads, power, connectivity) would be difficult, but not impossible. Those areas are not near any type of logistics hub and you only have a piece of I-77 serving that mostly rural area. Once you leave that, you are in God's country. This area would probably get more state incentives for locating there - maybe.

The north central part of the state is home to WVU and some high tech/aerospace manufacturing, so that could be a possibility. More educated/skilled population. Access to I-79 and I-68 interstates, but those aren't major. Flat land is still difficult to obtain.

The northern panhandle also has some possibilities. Not too far from from Pittsburgh, I-70 access, able to draw on population from PA and OH, but still relatively small.

The best bet from a logisitics, workforce, flat available land, infrastructure standpoint is the eastern panhandle with easy access to north-south I-81 traffic and east-west I-70 traffic to large population centers. It's not far form I-95 where you can hit the whole east coast for outgoing deliveries. Proctor & Gamble just built a massive facility (2.5 million sq ft on 458 acres) along I-81 south of Martinsburg for that purpose - ability to serve the east coast. Macy's also has a massive distribution center here. From where I live in the eastern panhandle, I can be in 3 other states (PA, MD, VA) in 20 minutes on 81, so there is a lot of crossover between the "quad state" region when choosing where to live/work. P&G works with a local community/tech college to train their workers with dedicated programs. This 2 year school also happens to be the 3rd largest school in the state based on enrollment (only behind WVU and Marshall), so not a small outfit.

Tesla will scout locations and make sure to avoid anywhere they see this guy

 

[Nocturnal]

View attachment 479169 Nice to see Elon holding their feet to the fire.

"Jim Chanos makes money once a decade"

Whelp, so much for that streak. I guess now it's once every 2 decades.

 

[elasalle]