Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

I really disagree with this. The cyber truck is the biggest event going on right now for Tesla. It seems like the most appropriate topic of conversation for this thread today and tomorrow. What are we supposed to talk about? Model Y, autonomy, solar roof… There are dedicated threads for all of these. The day before the model three reveal, we were not supposed to talk about the model three?

Is the only topic we are supposed to talk about the stock price?

And Toilet Boy's Paper Loss, of course?

 

[Thumper]

OK, I'll oPINE on the wood topic, even though it is not investment relevant. Pines and firs were used for masts primarily for their form factor, I believe. If you could get ash to grow straight and true they would be much stronger. Think baseball bats.

 

[pnungesser]

Not my field. Could you elabourate? Also, when you say "most", do you mean "most species of pine", or "most trees within a pine stand, with only some small fraction being suitable"?

Wow. I thought that there wasn’t anything that was not KarenRei’s field.

 

[sundaymorning]

I really disagree with this. The cyber truck is the biggest event going on right now for Tesla. It seems like the most appropriate topic of conversation for this thread today and tomorrow. What are we supposed to talk about? Model Y, autonomy, solar roof… There are dedicated threads for all of these. The day before the model three reveal, we were not supposed to talk about the model three?

Is the only topic we are supposed to talk about the stock price?

First rule of Fight Club is you’re not suppose to talk about fight club.

First rule of cybertruck event is you’re not suppose to talk about cybertruck.

 

[Tim S]

What swings the stock now is not product announcements, or promises, or world-changing plans, but evidence of execution on those plans.

I'm hoping we get both tonight... Cybertruck reveal plus first Made in China deliveries

 

[Lessmog]

OK, I'll oPINE on the wood topic, even though it is not investment relevant. Pines and firs were used for masts primarily for their form factor, I believe. If you could get ash to grow straight and true they would be much stronger. Think baseball bats.

Oak-ay.

 

[Tim S]

The Tesla Truck Is Coming Today. Here’s What That Means For Ford and GM Stock

“Citi data suggests Ford has more headline risk than GM,” Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli wrote in a Thursday research report. “If Tesla’s pickup impresses, Ford is competitively more exposed to share-loss risk than GM, with materially higher [earnings] exposure.”

That makes sense. Ford (ticker: F) is a bigger truck maker than General Motors (GM) and a large portion of its profits come from trucks. But Michaeli goes deeper in his research note. Ford sells more trucks with selling prices greater than $60,000. The Tesla (TSLA) truck will likely be positioned for the higher end of truck buyers based on its existing models and the high cost of batteries powering electric vehicles.

“As for Tesla, a positive [event] stock reaction is, of course, possible, but given the recent run-up in the shares and the fairly muted reactions to the last two unveilings...we don’t see a convincing setup into the event,” Michaeli writes. He rates Tesla shares the equivalent of Sell and has a $191 price target for the stock.

The run-up to this unveiling has been substantial. Tesla shares are up about 60% over the past three months due in part to better than expected third quarter earnings. Tesla shares are up about 6% year-to-date after spending most of the year in the red. The S&P 500, for comparison, is up about 26% year to date.

It isn’t all about GM and Ford. Investors shouldn’t forget about truck parts suppliers. Electric trucks will be a small part of the overall market for the foreseeable future and many truck part suppliers have electrification products as well as parts unrelated to the drivetrain. Still, it’s possible shares of companies such as Allison Transmission (ALSN), Cummins ( CMI ) and American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL) could also move on the launch event."

$191 price target on TSLA? Why would anyone take this guy seriously?

 

[Tslynk67]

Dah daaah!

 

[Unpilot]

Drinks on me!

 

[kbM3]

I posted my comment in the cyber pick up truck thread. Would love to get others peoples take on it

 

[avoigt]

Any live stream happening tonight?

Recommendations are welcome.

 

[HG Wells]

Wow. I thought that there wasn’t anything that was not KarenRei’s field.

I am sure there must be something.
But I will be damned if I can find it.

 

[Electroman]

Meh. What’s good for the short is good for the long. We’ve been screwed over so many times by rumors, unsubstantiated claims and outright lies. I say we run with the rumor.

Most of the savvy investors knew it was a rumor with no basis from the start.

But imagine for a second if there was a rumor started in reverse, something very negative about Tesla. All the Tesla hounds in the media would be working overtime covering that as if it was factual news, and once it is proven that it was false rumor, none of them would correct their original reports. They will simply move onto the next FUD.

 

[LST]

OK, ten to go and somebody will have to cover....

 

[sparcs]

it's like groundhog day. repeat of tuesday back to $360.

 

[Navin]

Anyone in media finance on this board? I would like to understand how to find out how CNBC makes money. Specially - I know they get folks to advertise on their network - is there any easy way to find out which companies specifically spend lots of money to support their network. My plan is to network my way to the C suite at each of these companies and convince them to show some muscle and stop the nonsense reporting from folks like Lora.

 

[UncaNed]

additional OT facts: the word "factoid" traditionally refers to untrue (but often repeated) statements. It's basically an older version of the phrase "Fake news". Through widespread misuse, however, the second usage ("brief and/or trivial facts") has arisen. Ironic that the term "factoid", which originally literally meant fake news, has mutated to refer to real news. Ironic, but apropos for the times we now live in, i suppose.

from M-W:

Awwww. Factoid was such a cute, round little word and I trusted it unconditionally. Never dreamed it was misleading us all these years.

You really know how to let the wind outta our sails, Pezpunk.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

It looks like there is sustained interest in the CyberTruck before the reveal, according to google trends. This is unlike interest in the Semi and Model Y, they both had peaks after the reveal but little before hand. The Roadster II continues to get a lot of searches.

 

[RFernatt]

Most pine wouldn't make good veneer.

Not my field. Could you elabourate? Also, when you say "most", do you mean "most species of pine", or "most trees within a pine stand, with only some small fraction being suitable"?

Because it's 'naughty' pine.

Fir goodness sake, I was pining for $360 and woodn't you know it, we're there!

I'll see myself out.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

My prediction for the SP. If the truck reveal tonight shows a more mainstream truck that is well-received by fans and the media, I think we will test the ATH in the very near future. If the truck is truly as cyberpunk or futuristic, or just flat out ugly as heck, we will stay in the $300-$360 range until the Model Y enters production. I simply don't see any other catalyst out there to push us to an ATH since everyone has priced in the China factory spitting out cars THIS year (which will turn into a negative if no cars are delivered in 2019), the yearly deliveries estimate of 360-400k will either be a meet or fall short (with deliveries being stalled from the Shanghia factory, >400k just doesn't seem possible), and I don't think we will have another surprise earnings beat in the next 2 quarters.

I just don't see what else besides the truck reveal that can push us higher until the Y starts production. Hope I'm wrong.