Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

My other main concern is how dangerous this thing could be to other drivers. Hopefully autonomous safety features will have advanced enough to negate that by the time this thing is on the road.

Presumably this will have front end crumple zones like any other vehicle. If you tbone it, well, the battery pack is already a beast in that regard in current cars.

 

[Bobfitz1]

This is pretty much what they are doing to whole image of a truck. What CEO has the steel balls to do this to their trucks! Elon is destroying all truck makers in effigy. Hard core trucks are supposed to be the vehicle you're not afraid to beat up. Tesla has literally taken a sledgehammer up against the pampered cream puffs the pickup truck has become. Like I said no other CEO has the steel balls to smash windows at a truck unveiling.

I guess he shouldn't have had Franz actually throw steel balls at the windows! Most presenters planning such a demonstration would have tasked someone to try it twenty times beforehand to make damn sure it wouldn't fail live on stage. It's odd that a guy smart enough to pull off reusable rockets wouldn't do that. But the truth is humans aren't perfectly one thing or another. Even the smartest occasionally have a blind spot and fail to take obvious precautions. It's also true that when you are showing a set of specs and features this good you shouldn't take one goof too hard.
IMO the biggest news from the reveal is Tesla implicitly showing what the Battery Investor event will make explicit next year. That regardless of the mix of technology improvements in the next generation of Tesla batteries, the bottom line is the cost per KWh is going to drop big time to permit pricing like this in two more years. What competitors are now sweating is how much sooner than two years that new generation cost drop may hit them.

 

[elasalle]

 

[Zero CO2]

i think the naysayers have this beauty in there subconscious... anyone?

 

[Steve m]

Ah think...

If you own a pickup truck for status...

Sell it now!

Their resale value is going to drop like a rock.

 

[ZachF]

Does anyone think the pricing and specs of this truck could presage a price reduction for their other models (mostly 3/Y, I guess) in ~2 years?

The entry level truck offers so much more utility than a Model 3 for the same price. There are certainly reasons why a prospective customer would still choose the latter - controversial design and sheer size among them - but as I consider what I'd buy if I'm lucky enough to be in the market in 2022, I think I'd spend 40k on the truck instead of a Model 3 SR+.

...but, if a Model 3 were priced lower (30k?) I think I'd have to work a lot harder to rationalize buying all the extra capability that comes with the truck. Thoughts?

Model 3 will certainly get more capable as time goes on.

Base model S is better than the top of the line model S from ~5 years ago for instance.

 

[KarenRei]

Hey, remember that Tesla battery pack that burned in Germany, couldn't get put out for good, and Tesla refused to take it back?

Every part of that story was fake.

Er ist draußen | AUTO & Wirtschaft

 

[2virgule5]

View attachment 480103

My calls would be happy if we close at max pain...
In other news: order confirmation emails are starting to come by in our mailboxes, even the ones that got an Apple pay error

 

[woodisgood]

Wait a minute...so, in preparation testing for the big event, the ball broke the window. So then, rather than say maybe this isn't a good idea, Elon said "Franz, just throw it a little bit gentler". So he threw it more gentle and it didn't break. Then Elon said "Franz, I've known you a long time and you have a very consistent throw. I want you to remember exactly how hard that last throw was and to repeat it tomorrow on stage so the glass doesn't break. Franz said "OK, Elon, sounds like a plan". Never mind that Elon knows how fallible human perception is.

Okaaaaaaaa-aaaa-aaaayyyyyyy.....

What actually happened is Musk has created a situation where they can show they are constantly improving their products. At a later date, they will show how they perfected it, everyone will remember the broken glass and tweet the new video around and it will be another opportunity for positive publicity. Publicity works best when people can relate to it. Without the initial glass breaking, people would just say "Humf, so the glass didn't break, big deal". But since it broke the first time, but not now, people will view it as more impressive - a big improvement. It's definitely more powerful this way. Musk understands how the human brain works and how to harness it.

There may be some merit to what you are saying regarding Musk and various aspects of the Cybertruck rollout, but I don’t think it applies to the glass situation. He played it off as well as he could but if you can’t read the extreme discomfort the situation was causing him, I don’t know what to tell you.

Regardless, it’s a silly point to quibble over one way or the other because the result was still a thousand times better than regular glass and most importantly...it won’t matter in the long run AT ALL.

 

[Don TLR]

I must have misread, because I thought that 36" tires was what was said. For that kind of vehicle, the rim diameter isn't typically mentioned.

Lots or most manufacturers will use a 17 inch rim and that allows the most aftermarket selection of tires and rim choices including bead-lock rims. This allows more tire flex and contact patch especially when airing down. Once you get into the larger sized tires like 42 inch, some styles are only available in a 17 inch rim. This is for true off road tires, some of those flashy poser types come in larger rims sizes as they're more concerned with looks..

 

[Intl Professor]

A graduate school buddy once said "the only sense of taste you have is in your mouth." That certainly does not apply to what I speak with it. I date myself with the admission my favorite car is a 1930s Bugatti, all curves and even the fully exposed (and adorned) headlights are a work of art in themselves.

Late in life I am still learning. À chacun ses goûts, to each his own, sounds better in French (googled).

I'm irritated by current styles. The black leather costumes turned me off, the sound and light shows, including flaming flower pots were so outré. And the profile of the vehicle, so redolent of a stealth fighter bomber, not the preference of a 1960s peacenik. And more, the vehicle architect seemed high.

A more measured, rational response from someone on this thread earlier, "we've been punked." In that sense and in all ways, Musk set out to do and achieved his objective—something new.

It takes getting used to it, what Trump's chief of staff urged us to do about our prez. For antiques like me, the persuasive analogy, the reveal provokes a reaction similar to the first performance of Stravinsky's "Rite of Spring."

I do not expect we will have to live long with the market reaction today. Makes no sense at all. Even with an old man's fading olfactories, it doesn't feel right using all that remains of my faculties.

Creating a new reality takes time.

In time we might even believe, and someone here may have said this, "the fractured window is a joke, bullet proof glass always does this when it stops the bullet." We've been punked in details. Not a short's long suit, so to speak.

 

[MP3Mike]

in the video, it sounded like the driver said he put it into low gear. Having multiple gears would definitely be a new thing

I noticed that too. What the heck was he talking about? A joke? Low gear would normally be used for high torque, low speed operation, not launching 0-60. I suspect it was a joke.

I'm pretty sure he said it was putting it into low. But he was referring to suspension height. Tesla has setup things now so you only get maximum acceleration when the suspension is set to low to minimize the wear on the axels and CV joints.

 

[JRP3]

I would say they are steel.

Dan

Aluminum is more likely.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I work in tech but I'm in a very red state in the south of the US. No one here talked about the Y after it was unveiled. But my office is buzzing over the truck in a positive way. People I know who never had an interest in an EV have ordered. I'm dying to know the number of orders.

 

[Curt Renz]

I assume that the window smashing was unintentional. However, the net effect is that it gave reason for a wide cross section of the media to highlight not merely the smashing but also the Cybertruck in general. That's resulted in a massive amount of free advertising for a company that does not advertise commercially.

The glass problem should be resolved long before any Cybertrucks are delivered to buyers. In fact, aren't side windows supposed to be breakable by first responders?

There are still many people not very aware of Tesla and its products. Ultimately last night's event and today's coverage by the media should greatly help Tesla and not hurt it at all.

 

[EVNow]

I would say they are steel. That's why the rear view mirror is a rear facing camera so you can see what's behind you with the bed cover in place.

Dan

Oh … I didn't realize the rearview mirror is actually an image from the camera.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Oh … I didn't realize the rearview mirror is actually an image from the camera.

That's what they were saying in the test drive videos. Apparently it is a normal mirror with the cover stowed and switches to a rear camera when it is deployed.

Dan

 

[theschnell]

So I’ve been a Tesla fan since early 2014. Tried to get my parents interested in the model 3. No interest even after a test drive. Model Y? Still too expensive relative to gas comparable. Cybertruck? My dad put in his order today. He loves the look and he loves the price. He’s 60 years old and very practical. He likes everything about it, except for recharge time compared to gas, but all the other features overcame that one hesitation.

Demand for this truck is going to creep in from all kinds of areas. Normal trucks are boring and their cost of ownership is dramatically higher.

I think demand for this truck will be huge over time.

 

[EVNow]

I assume that the window smashing was unintentional. However, the net effect is that it gave reason for a wide cross section of the media to highlight not merely the smashing but also the Cybertruck in general. That's resulted in a massive amount of free advertising for a company that does not advertise commercially. There are still many people not very aware of Tesla and its products. Ultimately the event and today's coverage by the media should greatly help Tesla and not hurt it at all.

I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between.

I think they were not sure whether the window would break or not. They probably discussed about it and decided even if the window breaks, it would still result in net positive news.

 

[Foghat]

Rivian isn't $120k. Bollinger is $125k.

Rivian is $69k for 105 kWh 230 mile range version, $79k for 130 kWh 300 mile range version and $89k for 180 kWh 400 mile range version.

It is truly shocking how far advanced Tesla is with such a cost structure and performance gap between itself and its competitors.

We must now realize Tesla is way beyond anything anyone else is doing and I’m including governments. Elon has mentioned multiple times that he has tech that is beyond the pentagon and the US government, which hails the most advanced and well funded military in the world. It doesn’t matter if Tesla puts a crumpled paper bag on wheels or looks like someone took a dump on a chassis, there is nothing a competitor can do right now, no matter how pretty it is to mythical Marlboro Man of middle America, Tesla is going to sell a lot of its tech, not just other companies will be left behind, but national governments if they don’t innovate as aggressively as Tesla.

I can imagine now old school expensive fleets crossing oceans, squadrons of fighter planes in formation suddenly puttering to a stop, becoming trillion dollar paperweights when the oil plug is pulled and having no response to the new cheap decentralized electrified force, with a non existing fossil fuel logistical infrastructure that can’t be destroyed and the rest of the world would screech to a halt and reverse spin on its axis at the implications.

Is it going to be the USA or someone else who becomes this new force to shock the world? Tesla tech may become a forcing function for this new “transformation” race among nations defense industries since national security will not depend on fossil fuel based infrastructure, but the more solar-electric decentralized based one.

As more higher level authorities become more sold on this, we better believe that “accelerating the advent of electrification of transport” becomes a national security priority and the game is on.

Again, we may be in for a ride up as investors, but we must now start to see the broader implications as owners. It is painfully obvious to me that military leaders are paying attention, especially as Elon has mentioned on multiple occasions tech advances beyond current military capabilities.

We must start the conversation as owners/investors because it’s here and won’t go away.