Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

The fundamentals appear to be different this year vs. last year. Will be interesting to see.

I agree, the trade war isn’t going to have the same affect on tesla as we have GF3 already setup and ready to go in Shanghai.

 

[scaesare]

A smaller battery is better in the cold (assuming it has enough energy to get the job done). Because the battery is heated with waste heat from the motor and electronics - if you double the battery size, it takes nearly twice as long to warm up.

Batteries should be sized based upon the daily usage needs.

Conversely a larger battery with more thermal mass will not cool down as quickly (as when charging just before departing).

Also, a larger battery uses a lesser fraction of it's rated current delivery for a given locomotive power need, hence lessening the effect cold has on it.

 

[scaesare]

Leaf battery ain't thermally managed. This is 99% of their troubles, IMO.

It may be 99% of it's longevity/reliability troubles.

It has very little to do with it's best-case range.

 

[StealthP3D]

Saying "People don't need [select size] batteries" is just the same as "No one needs more than 640K of RAM". Also the 1000 mile batteries will be much lighter and cheaper as time goes on. People will shake their heads when they hear that early on there were those advocating limiting battery size.

I didn't say "People don't need [select size] batteries". Please stop the nonsense! I said they don't need more than they need!

 

[Curt Renz]

Here's more details from MarketWatch - Tesla price target hiked at Piper Jaffray: 'It's hard to find a more impactful disrupter than Tesla'

I first bought TSLA shares at $38 each after receiving a weekly newsletter from Piper Jaffray on 2013 JAN 28. In that letter a regular guest on my old TV show, PJ's Craig Johnson, recommended TSLA based on technical analysis. Until then I was unaware of the company, its cars and Elon Musk. I followed up with thorough research, before buying more and more of the stock each day for the rest of that week.

And more on this from Electrek: https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/03/tesla-tsla-deliver-cybertruck-price-analyst/

Piper Jaffray's Alexander Potter:
I began considering the possibility that ALL OTHER pickup trucks might actually be pretty crummy, and that Tesla’s Cybertruck is the only pickup worth ordering.

 

[scaesare]

It's called "Regen".

A larger battery will be less impacted by regen limitations in the cold. If a battery can safely regen at only 0.5C at freezing before plating occurs, then a 100kWh pack allows up to 50kW regen, whereas a 60kW pack allows only 30kW regen.

 

[EVNow]

Renting for trips means that you're driving with your family in an unfamiliar car on unfamiliar roads in a car that has questionable maintenance. This doesn't seem to be to be the safest method you could choose. Not to mention the high price to rent the car and pay for gas.

Definitely a consideration.

I was talking more about lugging/transporting things a couple of times a year.

Road trips is where 2 cars in the household comes handy. Near me almost all families have a smaller city car and a larger family CUV/Van which they also use for road trips. Model Y would be very attractive in this role.

 

[StealthP3D]

A larger battery will be less impacted by regen limitations in the cold. If a battery can safely regen at only 0.5C at freezing before plating occurs, then a 100kWh pack allows up to 50kW regen, whereas a 60kW pack allows only 30kW regen.

True, but if it's so cold that you have almost no regen, a larger pack will take longer to warm up enough that it's no longer regen limited. Simple physics.

But that's not why I support buying the pack that suits your needs. It just makes sense from multiple levels to not buy a substantially larger pack than the one that suits your usage. This should be obvious and as charging becomes more ubiquitous and faster, it will only make more sense to not be lugging around an extra ton of batteries you don't need.

 

[EVNow]

I didn't say "People don't need [select size] batteries". Please stop the nonsense! I said they don't need more than they need!

The point is - how do you determine the need ?

That is why I was talking about % of driving needs a car can satisfy as the main criteria. Its not just the battery size, but also the car size.

 

[humbaba]

Possible other livestreams:

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In addition to the Buzzfeed one:

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Unfortunately, all of those links require a twitter account to login. But according to one I found[1] they aren't allowed electronic devices so how would they live tweet? I guess if you don't mind risking getting caught and kicked out?

1) Nathan Solis on Twitter

 

[JRP3]

Unfortunately, all of those links require a twitter account to login. But according to one I found[1] they aren't allowed electronic devices so how would they live tweet? I guess if you don't mind risking getting caught and kicked out?

1) Nathan Solis on Twitter

They are tweeting during breaks.

 

[KarenRei]

Unfortunately, all of those links require a twitter account to login. But according to one I found[1] they aren't allowed electronic devices so how would they live tweet? I guess if you don't mind risking getting caught and kicked out?

1) Nathan Solis on Twitter

Like this:

Whenever they leave the courtroom, they can send messages.

 

[JRP3]

I said they don't need more than they need!

 

[StealthP3D]

Having said that, I do think that Q1, not Q4 will be the catalyst. As in, the first month of Q1 which will have Q4 numbers, Q4 earnings, Q1 guidance, Giga 3 sales ramps, will create a fundamental catalyst that starts the multi-year bull run

Ummm..., the bull run has been underway for some time now. Ever since the day before I doubled my position at $184 (June 3, 2019)! I do agree, it has a long way to run still.

 

[scaesare]

True, but if it's so cold that you have almost no regen, a larger pack will take longer to warm up enough that it's no longer regen limited. Simple physics.

No.

For every degree the pack warms up, the battery that is twice as large will provide twice the ability to absorb regen power. (Voltage is constant in both scenarios, the current the battery must accommodate is a smaller fraction as a compared to it's power delivery/acceptance capability the larger the battery)

Thus while the larger battery warms up at half the rate, it provides twice the regen capability at any given temperature up to it's max, and the curves end up (roughly) equal.

Simple physics indeed.

But that's not why I support buying the pack that suits your needs. It just makes sense from multiple levels to not buy a substantially larger pack than the one that suits your usage. This should be obvious and as charging becomes more ubiquitous and faster, it will only make more sense to not be lugging around an extra ton of batteries you don't need.

Assuming you are no longer standing by your earlier assertion that "usage needs" = "daily driving" needs, then I don't disagree.

However, When you factor in the needs of many:

-Need to drive in the cold, resulting in 30-50% greater energy usage
-Need to tow: 50-100% greater energy usage
-Need to mount a roof rack/box: ~20% range hit
-Need to account for elevation change
-Need to accommodate headwinds
-Need to drive through snow/slush/heavy rain
-Need to use the cabin heater significantly
-etc...

Then the scenario changes. Especially if you face more than one of these factors in a single trip. These may not be daily needs, but they are regular needs. Today's 300-400 mile EV range packs are great strides. But wanting 500+ mile range packs, which will do 200 in reality for the family vacation up the mountain through the snow in sub-freezing weather with the ski-rack on top will be welcome....

 

[Tslynk67]

I have skated through life on the thin ice of not becoming a lawyer, but....

it seems to me that is a clear case of defaming you. Using the tongue-in-cheek - AND so described!!!! - portion of your words to paint you as someone 180º opposite from whom you are - what could be more defamatory? The sole blade of grass behind which he could hide would be to suggest "It's only Twitter"...and the counter to that, of course, are the effects that Twitter-use has by #45 and Mr Musk as well.

Steve Job's Ghost was banned form Twitter for posting a publicly available photo that was deemed 'copyright' - so yeah, report that f*****r

 

[Nocturnal]

Added a few more cheap calls for late Jan 2020. Come on, baby needs a new cybertruck.

Elon has 29.8 million followers (world wide). Say 25 million in US, 250 million people of voting (jury) age in US. So 10% follow rate.

No way. Only 22% of American adults use twitter. That would mean that half of all US twitter users follow Elon.

Pew: US adult Twitter users tend to be younger, more Democratic; 10% create 80% of tweets – TechCrunch

 

[Tslynk67]

So this is what counts for news these days in that hell simulation substrate they call $TSLAQ

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Ummm..., the bull run has been underway for some time now. Ever since the day before I doubled my position at $184 (June 3, 2019)! I do agree, it has a long way to run still.

Eh....I mean it's all determined by the time window you chose, but for a stock to be in a solid set trading range for 2.5 years, means it's not in a bull run. In fact, you could say we've been in the 190-370 trading range for 6 years since we did in fact hit 190 during 2019.

When I say bull run, I mean consistent year over year for 3-6 years straight of new highs and new trading ranges. Amazon had it's bull run from 2012 to 2018. Microsoft is still in the midst of it's bull run from 2013. Tesla has not had it's bull run yet. It had it's initial surge that hype growth stocks have but it has been in a very set trading range for many years now. This is of course is very illogical considering Tesla's consistent annual growth rate but we all know why it's been capped and that it's not being traded fairly by Wall st.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Eh....I mean it's all determined by the time window you chose, but for a stock to be in a solid set trading range for 2.5 years, means it's not in a bull run. In fact, you could say we've been in the 190-370 trading range for 6 years since we did in fact hit 190 during 2019.

When I say bull run, I mean consistent year over year for 3-6 years straight of new highs and new trading ranges. Amazon had it's bull run from 2012 to 2018. Microsoft is still in the midst of it's bull run from 2013. Tesla has not had it's bull run yet. It had it's initial surge that hype growth stocks have but it has been in a very set trading range for many years now. This is of course is very illogical considering Tesla's consistent annual growth rate but we all know why it's been capped and that it's not being traded fairly by Wall st.

I think this is substantially the belief for most of us here. It certainly is my belief. There are too many commonly-held misconceptions about Tesla that when they start to slough off and understanding becomes more widespread, the stock just has to adjust upward - and likely for an extended period of time.