The "no matter how many miles you drive" part only applies to the Model S&X. The Model 3 has a limit of 100k/120k on the battery warranty. I don't think we know the warranty details for the Model Y, Roadster, or Cybertruck yet.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The "no matter how many miles you drive" part only applies to the Model S&X. The Model 3 has a limit of 100k/120k on the battery warranty. I don't think we know the warranty details for the Model Y, Roadster, or Cybertruck yet.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If you don't want to call it the "start of a bull run" until it breaks through old highs, that's fine with me. But I'm trying to load up at or near the bottom, not what you call "the start of a bull run". If you wait until it hits new highs it will already be over $380. By buying at the beginning of that run, at $180, you realize 200% of the capital gains compared to buying in at your definition of "the beginning of the bull run".
Personally, I think it's more than obvious that we are headed above $380 (new all-time highs) within a couple of months (barring a major market correction or Tesla news that is stunningly bad). Where you want to say it began is kinda meaningless. The market looks forward and it rewards those who look a little more forward yet with outsized gains.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Some long term thinking...
I looked up the number of cars currently in the UK: 32 million. If we have ANY chance whatsoever of fighting to keep climate change below 1.5 degrees, then its ESSENTIAL that transport globally moves to replace all existing cars with electric ones (not even considering trucks, bikes, buses etc).
To replace the UKs cars over a twenty year period (and we don't really have that long) means 1.5 million cars per year.
Tesla are currently only making about 350,000 cars a year...
To put it in plain language... even if every country on earth except the UK made it illegal to buy a tesla, they could still quadruple their current output, and keep going at the same rate for twenty years, just by doing what HAS to be done in the tiny little niche market we call the UK. Even assuming everyone is happy to keep each car for twenty years before upgrading.
Tesla is already stupidly undervalued for what they do NOW. I see the chances of them being four times the size in a few years to be overwhelming. I see, therefore the chances of the stock price quadrupling over the next few years pretty much a safe bet. I would not be surprised to see $500-600 by 2021.
It seems crazy to me that there are people currently buying, or holding shares in ford, GM, Exxon mobil. Talk about stranded assets. These companies are screwed.
I looked up the number of cars currently in the UK: 32 million. If we have ANY chance whatsoever of fighting to keep climate change below 1.5 degrees, then its ESSENTIAL that transport globally moves to replace all existing cars with electric ones (not even considering trucks, bikes, buses etc).
To replace the UKs cars over a twenty year period (and we don't really have that long) means 1.5 million cars per year.
Tesla are currently only making about 350,000 cars a year...
To put it in plain language... even if every country on earth except the UK made it illegal to buy a tesla, they could still quadruple their current output, and keep going at the same rate for twenty years, just by doing what HAS to be done in the tiny little niche market we call the UK. Even assuming everyone is happy to keep each car for twenty years before upgrading.
Tesla is already stupidly undervalued for what they do NOW. I see the chances of them being four times the size in a few years to be overwhelming. I see, therefore the chances of the stock price quadrupling over the next few years pretty much a safe bet. I would not be surprised to see $500-600 by 2021.
It seems crazy to me that there are people currently buying, or holding shares in ford, GM, Exxon mobil. Talk about stranded assets. These companies are screwed.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I do sense a lot of organic strength in TSLA recently but one should probably consider that some of this strength might be fuelled by shorts loading up with fresh ammunition for a big attack. Impossible to say which it is.
I'm running at about 25k miles a year so I'll hit my warranty at year 4. I'm not expecting my pack to blow up and I'm pretty optimistic about it, but it's an unknown. I know how much a new engine would cost in an ICE vehicle. It is worth noting too that in an ICE car I can go to any shop for a rebuild, or buy a crate engine from the manufacturer, or possibly a rebuilt engine from Jasper. With Tesla, it's whatever they want to charge me.
Anyone posting here at this moment, will be deleted from my "anonymous Elon accounts"- list since Elon is at the court.
Fact Checking, you're already off the list
Fact Checking, you're already off the list
As if I...I mean Elon doesn't have a beta version of Nueralink already installed in his head.
Mostly, but she couldn't resist this little dig:
"If Tesla could begin Model Y deliveries in the first-quarter of 2020, that would be a full season ahead of CEO Elon Musk’s promised schedule. Early production and deliveries would be a symbolic win for the company, which has often failed to meet self-imposed delivery deadlines."
She must be feeling unwell or she would have written "consistently failed"...
dgodfrey
Member
I'm now in my second winter in upstate NY with my Model 3 LR and have a better appreciation for buying as much range as you can afford. I've had a few close calls that as time goes on, I become more and more conservative as the edge cases you describe above, rob me of more range than I expect. Enough so that I will most likely upgrade my CT deposit to the tri-motor vs the dual. In 3 years, 300 miles may seem on the low end and I plan on using the CT as a truck, not a commuter vehicle.
The Model 3 warranty limit also exists in metric countries, my LR AWD comes with 160k km.
(Yes, it would infer less pain on others if users of an archaic unit system would actually use their units).
That would be 160 Mm, right?
For the CyberTruck, I think it's conceivable that a substantial portion of actual battery usage may not be mileage related, as it may be used with providing 120/240 volt power and/or powering the air compressor or perhaps other functions we don't yet know. I wonder if Tesla may base their warranty for the CT battery on metered wattage used or something along those lines.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
My 2010 Roadster has lost around 10% of the range from a standard charge and has been driven 45,000 miles. I think that is excellent given the batteries used and the comparatively primitive BMS. I wonder how sales reps answer when a client asks how much for a replacement pack? I bet that if it was found to be a real hindrance, Tesla should be confident enough in the battery cost declining 5 - 7% year after year to set a max replacement pack cost for each year after warranty expires. If a given pack size costs X now, commit to selling replacement packs Y% less than X each year going out. Not likely they'd ever lose a dollar on such a commitment, when they know their cells are going to go down even faster with battery innovations already in the pipeline.
sundaymorning
Active Member
What’s scary here is that Tesla has less than 200 million shares outstanding, while amazon has 490 million shares outstanding. By this metric, Tesla should be double the price of amazon base on eps.
What’s crazier is that amazon’s margins is a thin 4-5%, while Tesla’s margins are 20%.
What’s craziest, is that we’re still sitting on $336 per share.
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