CyberDutchie
Active Member
Here we go again... none of this spreading of rumors is helpful for the stock. It does the exact opposite, it allows the news cycles to raise Q4 expectation based on rumors and kills any chance of a surprise beat.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Here we go again... none of this spreading of rumors is helpful for the stock. It does the exact opposite, it allows the news cycles to raise Q4 expectation based on rumors and kills any chance of a surprise beat.
Krugerrand
Meow
Psst! 83,000. Spread the word.
Guys, I just spent 10 minutes reading TSLAQ threads on Twitter. I think I had an aneurysm.
Please send help
Please send help
I need your address to send two sharp pointed sticks to be used to prevent further reading of tslaq
sundaymorning
Active Member
I’ve heard from the solar/power wall side that Tesla has been quite busy, if they meet their goal people will be very surprise at how much deployment occurred in Q4. I really think we have something very special that’s about to get ramped in a big way.
For some billionaires whose time is worth 100k/min, it's worth to testify about some stupid defimatiom case about nothing for 2 days..for others not so much.
Yeah not a fan of this lawsuit. Tied up two days of Musks time just to complete his trolling of the guy.
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Yeah, q1 2019 last ten days of that quarter Tesla delivered 30k+ cars. So no we are not expecting that record to be beaten.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the offerMy electricity rates at work are actually lower than at home, even with green grid mix, so in the end I'm happy it worked out this way. I'm curious what your fix is though!
I will need to see a photo of the driveway that is too steep for a Model 3 to negotiate before I can recommend a fix.
hmmm....Tesla delivery infrastructure is far better now than it was in Q1, and it is delivering in more countries, and there is a lot of cars on the water that won't be delivered until 2nd half of December, and its likely the last week will be delivered to California straight from the factory, while east cast deliveries that have been in transit across US for a couple of weeks will also be delivered, and GF3 might start deliveries, so.....
maybe.
That’s news from a year ago.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Is it possible that only the Cybertruck will be built at GF1? This would avoid a stamping press and paint shop at GF1 altogether.
Semi could also not require a press or paint shop be part of this if the body panels were shipped in. Presumably not much of the chassis is pressed already?
Semi could also not require a press or paint shop be part of this if the body panels were shipped in. Presumably not much of the chassis is pressed already?
Tesla sold 280 cars in Germany in November, 9581 cars since January:
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 26/2019 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2019
Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt - Fahrzeugzulassungen - Pressemitteilung Nr. 26/2019 - Fahrzeugzulassungen im November 2019
McDonalds, are you serious? How about some food and not poison?
Hot off the press, UK November new vehicle registrations:
The UK new car market fell -1.3% in November, with 156,621 models registered, according to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). This maintains the downward trend for new car registrations throughout 2019, as multiple factors, including weak business and consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and confusion over diesel and clean air zones, combined to affect demand.
In November, the decline was driven primarily by weak private demand, registrations down -6.1%, while the business market also fell, down -3.2%, but fleet registrations fared better, up 2.8%. For the second consecutive month, total alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV) registrations reached a record market share, with more than one in 10 cars joining UK roads either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or pure electric – equivalent to 16,052* cars.
*Out of these, 4652 BEVs.
The problem is, as some may be aware, that the SMMT doesn’t break out Tesla registrations separately but rather they are reported under the “Other imports” category along with some luxury and exotic brands, of which Tesla constitutes the majority. In November there were 2405 “other imports”, representing 1.54% market share; this compares to 305 registrations in Nov’ 18, and it would be fair to assume that most of that YOY difference (possibly more than the difference if one expects a drop in S & X numbers) is made up of Model 3s.
Unfortunately there weren’t enough Model 3s registered in Nov. to help it break into the Top 10 Best Sellers, as it did in August (the weakest overall registrations month this year), with the VW Tiguan at no. 10 with 2376 registrations. Although the Model 3 probably was not far behind that.
The UK new car market fell -1.3% in November, with 156,621 models registered, according to figures released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). This maintains the downward trend for new car registrations throughout 2019, as multiple factors, including weak business and consumer confidence, economic uncertainty and confusion over diesel and clean air zones, combined to affect demand.
In November, the decline was driven primarily by weak private demand, registrations down -6.1%, while the business market also fell, down -3.2%, but fleet registrations fared better, up 2.8%. For the second consecutive month, total alternatively fuelled vehicle (AFV) registrations reached a record market share, with more than one in 10 cars joining UK roads either hybrid, plug-in hybrid or pure electric – equivalent to 16,052* cars.
*Out of these, 4652 BEVs.
The problem is, as some may be aware, that the SMMT doesn’t break out Tesla registrations separately but rather they are reported under the “Other imports” category along with some luxury and exotic brands, of which Tesla constitutes the majority. In November there were 2405 “other imports”, representing 1.54% market share; this compares to 305 registrations in Nov’ 18, and it would be fair to assume that most of that YOY difference (possibly more than the difference if one expects a drop in S & X numbers) is made up of Model 3s.
Unfortunately there weren’t enough Model 3s registered in Nov. to help it break into the Top 10 Best Sellers, as it did in August (the weakest overall registrations month this year), with the VW Tiguan at no. 10 with 2376 registrations. Although the Model 3 probably was not far behind that.
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The governor of Alaska is trying to convince Tesla to build the factory for the Cybertruck in the state, under the argument that "Nobody in the world balances resource development and environmental stewardship better than us.".
Governor Mike Dunleavy on Twitter
TSLAQ is of course active in the comments.
I have mixed feelings about the idea. Logistics would be a real pain, even if they could source all bulk raw materials locally - both on import and export. On the other hand, and I know it sounds weird, but when you're talking about a vehicle whose main selling point is, "I'm the most rugged civilian vehicle on Earth!", having a "Made In Alaska" label would probably be a good selling point. Also a good way to fight the "Teslas are only built for California weather" and "EVs can't take the cold" notions.
Anchorage is the only potentially viable location, employment-wise. Population a bit bigger than Reno (292k vs. 249k), unemployment about the same (5,1% vs. 5%, vs. the US national average of 3,6%).
Governor Mike Dunleavy on Twitter
TSLAQ is of course active in the comments.
I have mixed feelings about the idea. Logistics would be a real pain, even if they could source all bulk raw materials locally - both on import and export. On the other hand, and I know it sounds weird, but when you're talking about a vehicle whose main selling point is, "I'm the most rugged civilian vehicle on Earth!", having a "Made In Alaska" label would probably be a good selling point. Also a good way to fight the "Teslas are only built for California weather" and "EVs can't take the cold" notions.
Anchorage is the only potentially viable location, employment-wise. Population a bit bigger than Reno (292k vs. 249k), unemployment about the same (5,1% vs. 5%, vs. the US national average of 3,6%).
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Yes, the cockroaches crawling from behind the toilet so sully the thread...
Nevertheless, it's great that Alaska are jockeying for position on this.
New Jack Rickard video - haven't seen it mentioned yet. He's got an old-school ICE pickup guy. Not sure if it's going to be 100% CT related... hoping they get to a lot of the battery speculation as well, since Jack is really good about that sort of stuff.
Watching on double speed...
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Watching on double speed...
- Speculating that the ribbed bed design, while something that will tend to accumulate gunk, would let you put twist locks into them
- Talks about how salt trucks can get rusted out in a single year. Jokes about trucks have eyebrows over their wheels in some places because of the salt-related rust
- WD-40 as a perfect cleaner - was designed for the space industry as a stainless steel cleaner and coating for the Atlas rocket.
- Argues against the notion of cryogenically-treated steel
- Considers the details of the 30x alloy to not matter much. Describes 301 as the defining alloy for this role, but 316 also has some desirable properties.
- Jokes about people misreading 30x as "30 times"
- Points out that ultra-hard isn't a technical term, but that it's not inaccurate, in that if you keep running it through through the roller, you can make it even harder than full hard. Says that the main advantage is that the steel will be ridiculously hard to scratch.
- Pulled out a power control unit from the Model 3 penthouse. Says that they could readily adapt the unit to output 240V AC as well, and that he's done basically the same thing in the past. You don't need a dedicated power converter. Would be astonished if the 240V is not the full ~10kW of the charger, since there's no good reason not to. Also: you could use the same hardware as an inverter for an offgrid solar system. That you "almost can't not do that", that you'd have to actively program the hardware to not be functional as a powerwall for an offgrid system. He's not a believer in using a car as V2G except for emergencies, but for prepper purposes, he thinks it'd be a great fit.
- People keep asking Jack to make Model 3/S/X to do V2G. He says he could do it, but it's not worth it for him, because it'd be way too expensive from his side, and his work could be broken by an update. But from Tesla's side, it's almost too easy. But for Cybertruck, because of the need to output power, Tesla almost "can't not" give V2G.
- Starts talking about towing and how energy consumption increases. Asked the truck guy what his range is when he tows; the guy laughs and says "in the single digits". Way deep in the single digits.
- Points out the class action lawsuit from Ford investors about Ford's fake EPA range numbers that they literally just made up.
- Switches to the Trump-California MPG battle. Says that the rules were useful for him, as it was pushing automakers to make lighter vehicles. But the side effect is that you get these trucks with alumium body panels, which get dented by hailstones and the like... and then meanwhile, here comes Tesla with 30x stainless
- Points out the (uncomfortable but true) fact that drivers of heavier vehicles are much more likely to survive in accidents. Points out the obvious downside to this fact in that without regulations pushing for lighter vehicles, it would encourage an arms race to the point where everyone would be driving around in greyhound buses
- Okay, batteries now! He's convinced that Dahn's work about dendrite suppression via electrolyte modifications is correct, and also that he basically does have a 5000 cycle / million mile battery, and thus, Tesla does.
- Discusses the possibility that Tesla's "transparent metal glass" is "transparent aluminum" (ALON, Alumium Oxynitride) [I'd speculated about this as well]. Actually a ceramic, sintered at very high temperatures and pressures. Strength: 350MPa on its own, and can get up to 700MPa by polishing the surface. Was 80% optical clarity, but new techniques are up to 98% optical clarity. About the same hardness as sapphire. Used in some military glass applications.
- Points out that harder glasses tend to have more perfect, highly polished surfaces, and a side effect of this is that it's a natural Rain-X.
- Re: windshield wipers: he thinks that if it really is something like polished ALON, water, dust, mud, etc won't even stick, so you might not even need them. "Permanent Rain-X. Probably better than Rain-X."
- Re, lack of mirrors: he pointed out that while everyone points out that they're required, and that automakers are always eventually are forced to add them, he thinks that this is finally going to change - the NHTSA is accepting comments about a proposed rulechange to remove mirrors, and he thinks that removing them may be allowed by the time CT comes out.
- Points out that bending sheet is slower than stamping. But the net production cost is much lower.
- Thinks that the use of steel will make repairs cheaper than alumium, and thus potentially lower insurance costs, because alumium is a pain to repair. "Stainless steel is nothing but good news, guys."
- Goes back to alumium. "Ford has designed their Ford-tough truck to be a girly aluminum body. Which I thought was great idea when I was converting cars and I could get a F-150 to convert and it'd be better because it's lighter, more range. But that's engineer talk. Truck talk guy is, aluminum is for girls. "Ford Tough", "Ram Power", and Chevy is "A Rock". All you have to do is watch the ads, and you know how to make a truck. And it isn't aluminum!"
- Goes very blue sky and speculates that the cubic spinel structure of ALON would be conducive to being doped to function as a photovoltaic cell, and that it would make an excellent research project. But such a thing would be way off.
- Talks about the R1T. Laughs. Wonders whether they'll actually ever even produce them. Re, delivery vans, he thinks that since they have a basically limitless order book for them from Amazon, and they're simpler, they may end up focus on them.
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Ship tracking update: looks like Rcc Europe, which left six days ago on November 30th, was the last Q4 ship from San Francisco port. Here's a photo of Pier 80 which shows just a few cars left over and no new cars being parked:
Note that Tesla stopped sending new ships on day 61 already - which indicates that virtually all the remaining December production from Fremont is for U.S. customers.
The last Q3 ship was on day 71, 10 days later. This increases the odds that all ships will arrive in time and most of their cargo can be delivered in time by December 31.
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