RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
They threw in free oil changes for life to take the sting out of the markup...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They threw in free oil changes for life to take the sting out of the markup...
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Macro wise, there's a persistent Trump headwind. The Gina trade war is increasingly looking less like a well thought out strategy to get an election win, but a random spasmodic tantrum thrown by him.
Technical wise. I'd say the Repo-Calypse. It is something complicated so the mass media ain't talking about it. This makes it deadly. It reminds me of the lockup of liquidity that happened in 2008. Except this time, we have the FED with infinity liquidity provisional capability without having to go to congress and beg, thus saving valuable time and injecting cash before some entity has to go belly-up. In reality, based on the amount that is injected already, 2 or 3 institutions are already dead-man-walking. Dec 31 will bring in the second wave.
Also, all the different gov EV credit expiration. The last time it happened, this forum collectively thought it'd be a non-issue. I've wizened up since then. Sure, it won't be an issue, but doesn't mean TSLA won't be affected.
I am still keeping my core stocks. 1/3 in speculative stocks (Majority TSLA), 1/3 cash generation, 1/3 as a hedge against more money printing. However, I am letting excessive cash generated from all my endeavors accumulate instead of reinvesting or spending.
Funny how Elon is blocking all the right media trolls. Since you brought it up.:
Jaguar increases I-Pace range with update after one-make race series
Gitlin in the comments where he's pretty worked about Elon knocking over a traffic cone:
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Sure. In camo. Was it the first prototype?
This is just speculation, but I'd be surprised if other manufacturers let an early prototype out on public streets. It is my understanding that what you are describing are pre-production units, not prototypes.
After watching the CW interview, I think that she is low-balling the Tesla market share in her bull case of 17.5% of the EV market.
In 1908 when Ford brought out the Model T, there were initially a lot of players in the new market but this quickly consolidated to what was known as the big three:
Automotive industry in the United States - Wikipedia
> The motor vehicle industry began with hundreds of manufacturers, but by the end of the 1920s it was dominated by three large companies: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, all based in Metro Detroit. After the Great Depression and World War II, these companies continued to prosper, and the U.S. produced nearly three quarters of all automobiles in the world by 1950 (8,005,859 of 10,577,426).
We can expect a lot of new players to enter the EV space, and a lot of consolidation of EV/auto brands over the next 20 years. The initial lead Tesla has might manifest as something as high as 40% market share peak as their production manages to match demand. Having the best product at the cheapest price only serves to increase Tesla's lead with economies of scale. Ford was around 50% market share for quite a decade or so. There is a huge first mover advantage when it comes to new tech. Because Tesla has the best product at cheaper prices I expect them to be supply constrained for a decade. The pressure of switching to EVs is only going to go up for governments, consumers and automakers. I also expect a very steep growth rate for Tesla EVs in the next decade. Here are my estimates for the trajectory of Tesla's EV market share:
2020: ~20%
2025: 25%
2030: 35%
2035: 30%
2040: 20%
In 1908 when Ford brought out the Model T, there were initially a lot of players in the new market but this quickly consolidated to what was known as the big three:
Automotive industry in the United States - Wikipedia
> The motor vehicle industry began with hundreds of manufacturers, but by the end of the 1920s it was dominated by three large companies: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, all based in Metro Detroit. After the Great Depression and World War II, these companies continued to prosper, and the U.S. produced nearly three quarters of all automobiles in the world by 1950 (8,005,859 of 10,577,426).
We can expect a lot of new players to enter the EV space, and a lot of consolidation of EV/auto brands over the next 20 years. The initial lead Tesla has might manifest as something as high as 40% market share peak as their production manages to match demand. Having the best product at the cheapest price only serves to increase Tesla's lead with economies of scale. Ford was around 50% market share for quite a decade or so. There is a huge first mover advantage when it comes to new tech. Because Tesla has the best product at cheaper prices I expect them to be supply constrained for a decade. The pressure of switching to EVs is only going to go up for governments, consumers and automakers. I also expect a very steep growth rate for Tesla EVs in the next decade. Here are my estimates for the trajectory of Tesla's EV market share:
2020: ~20%
2025: 25%
2030: 35%
2035: 30%
2040: 20%
Don't know if I'm allowed to say this. But I'm glad he blocked "the Git" from Arsetechnica.
Interesting reading. I am wondering whether the real forcing function will be from government mandates, or if it will be from the noticeable reduction in availability of fuel and subsequent consumer reaction.
As consumers find that they need to work harder to find a fuel station I think it will be a death knell for new ice vehicle purchases - they will either run the current vehicle longer or switch to ev.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The Moronic Septic Fossil is back writing on SA 
I started looking at the network of 'reporters' who bash Elon. I think blocking them is a good move. I also think that the most important part of fighting FUD against Tesla/Elon is raising the visibility of sources like InsideEVs/Teslarati/CleanTechnica. Fighting the FUD on the terms of Bloomberg/The Guardian/BI/etc is fighting an uphill battle. Time is better spent on Twitter upvoting positive stories than giving attention to biased hit pieces. Twitter (and other platform) algorithms are fed by discussion/clicks.
Initially the EV demand was driven by environmentalists/futurists. It is shifting more mainstream as EVs are just better value and performance compared to ICE cars. This will become even more obvious in 3-5 years to the general public. The economics of cheaper batteries, less maintenance and longer lifetimes will dominate the adoption of EVs rather than government regulation or closing gas stations.
In about 10 years though we will reach a tipping point where ICE cars are not only worse in every regard but also getting regulated out to meet climate goals, leading consumers to not want to be stuck with an unusable ICE car. There will be enough awareness for EVs to be mainstream, which will make people start to question why everyone else has to put up with the pollution from ICE vehicles laggards.
The fuel constraint will be one of the last aspects driving the decline in ICE vehicles, but when there is about 50% market share of EVs (perhaps in 15-20 years), I expect there will be a sudden collapse in ICE sales and market share, due to fuel stations closing down, and more strict regulation around pollution.
I got 15 more also
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Neither, the primary driver of mass adoption of EV's will be economic. Consumers want the most bang for their buck. They are not going to pay more for an inferior, outdated, smelly, slow and expensive to fuel ICE car. Cost parity is here now for the premium car buyer and every year it trickles down closer to the budget new car buyers. And through this process, budget used car buyers will be buying electric also.
It's all about the money and how much you get for it.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The Moronic Septic Fossil is back writing on SA
I wonder if he's free to write about Tesla now because he got fired from his money management job in N.Y. for underperformance?
The sudden collapse will be a lot sooner than 15-20 years. In markets where Tesla sells, I think 5 years is max.
I think I'm going to be ill...The Moronic Septic Fossil is back writing on SA
And what's really interesting is that when I try that Gitlin tweet, hey presto! I'm blocked by him. Don't ever recall having interacted, not sure I've ever heard of him, which would imply he's using the $TSLAQ block-list...???
Yeah, old ****-face is back on Twitter too.
I am not so sure Cathie Woods would agree.
At 4m30s, Woods says that Ark believes that in 2024 (i.e. for their 5-year forecast) total EV sales will be 37M units. She elaborates that this would be more than a third of total auto sales - which is consistent with current, actual annual total auto sales on the order of 100M, so I think she did not misspeak.
So 17% of that would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 6.3M cars. Starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would need an annual growth in deliveries of 77% to deliver that many cars in 2024.
Her old bull case of 11% would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 4.1M cars. Starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would need an annual growth in deliveries of just over 62% to deliver that many cars in 2024.
Her bear case at 6% would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 2.2M cars, which Tesla would achieve with an annual delivery growth of close to 44%.
There has been assumptions elsewhere of an annual delivery growth of 50%. Over 5 years, and starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would in 2024 sell 2.74M cars, corresponding to 7.5% of a 37M unit market.
I would say that her bear and bull cases of Tesla's market share in 5 years are very optimistic, but not entirely unrealistic.
If the 37M forecast is correct, then an annual growth of more than 77% would be required for the next 5 years in order for Tesla to capture more than its current market share, something I find hard to imagine.
Last edited:
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
The barrier to entry for horseless carriages was low. Anyone with access to a machine shop and a casting foundry could bring one to market. In the pre-assembly line days, the only advantages to any builder were whatever smarts they could incorporate into their product. The simplest of EVs is multiple orders of magnitude more complicated, and a real (e.g. Tesla) EV incorporates many technologies and millions of lines of code. Then there are batteries. As long as the industry is battery-constrained new entrants will be severely limited. I won't quibble with your growth projections, but I view them with caution.
Actually, let's just hope that both he and the company are never in that much stress again. I feel confident that we (as in TSLA and Tesla) have reached a point where it will be much more difficult for opposing forces to substantially damage us and I also feel Elon is under considerably less stress and far less likely to be provoked by a$$holes than 3rd quarter last year. Success helps build confidence and I'm confident that we'll be pretty successful in the next few years.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
