Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

But Elon's has said they're prepared to release a more conventional looking truck post-Cybertruck

He qualified that with "if the Cybertruck didn't sell well". Two things seem apparent at this time: It's going to sell like gangbusters and its looks have made every other light truck design so last century.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

I wonder if Elon will ask for reimbursement of his legal fees? If I were him, I would not.

Such a waste of time for Elon to even have to deal with this.

 

[Tslynk67]

Crazy how this stock has doubled just in the last few months...

Not really, more crazy that it fell 50% in the first place!

So now we have the traditional MMD at 10:30 - very similar graph to yesterday.

 

[jerry33]

But the primary fix for this type of torsion seems to be from Elon's reply that

> That’s why Cybertruck has active suspension height & damping control

I think the Youtube video is a bit misleading though, because having plasticity/flex in designs is common and useful. Like a building which is designed to sway in an earthquake... I'm not an auto engineer though - all my knowledge about engineering is civil/hydraulics/hydrology.

Although some buildings in Japan actually have a suspension.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

He qualified that with "if the Cybertruck didn't sell well". Two things seem apparent at this time: It's going to sell like gangbusters and its looks have made every other light truck design so last century.

I put my $100 on the Cybertruck because of Cybertruck robotaxi. My price for FSD is now locked in. What if Tesla ok's the cybertruck as a robotaxi. Wouldn't the truck be worth a lot more? There has to be a catch somewhere. At some point I will probably want my money back. My guess is Elon will not allow the cybertruck to be a robotaxi. In that case I would just get my $100 back.

 

[jerry33]

The big problem Ford and GM is that what would make their EV trucks attractive also make their ICE trucks attractive and probably even more so.

Some of the things can't be done with any kind of ICE. For example lowering the passenger compartment can't be done because the drive train gets in the way, so ease of passenger entry will always be poor. The differentials in an ICE truck will always limit the ground clearance. The only thing that can be done with an ICE is make the body angular--but it's still going to be the same 100 year old technology.

 

[jerry33]

My guess is Elon will not allow the cybertruck to be a robotaxi. In that case I would just get my $100 back.

Why on earth wouldn't he? Taxis need space for luggage and passengers and the six passenger capacity plus locked storage makes it an ideal taxi.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Some of the things can't be done with any kind of ICE. For example lowering the passenger compartment can't be done because the drive train gets in the way, so ease of passenger entry will always be poor. The differentials in an ICE truck will always limit the ground clearance. The only thing that can be done with an ICE is make the body angular--but it's still going to be the same 100 year old technology.

Also, climate control for camping. Unless you want to run out of gas and/or die of CO poisoning, leaving the engine running 24/7 is not advisable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, Shortzes sold 2M shares between 10 and 10:30 am to knock the price down 3 bux.

Seems like a nice gift to the longs, wot? Thx Cramer. How many hrs/days 'til that's a wasted effort?

Shortzes have forgotten the 1st rule of Holes:

"When you're in a hole, stop digging!"​

Cheers!

Cheers!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

At this point, it would be far more productive for the shorts to just light their money on fire. At least that can keep them warm during the winter.

 

[X Fan]

Breaking news on Bloomberg!

"Tesla has lost its third general council in three years!"

Lol....it's pretty disgusting to watch this media manipulation up close.

So, true, as if this matters.

In the US, attorneys are in great abundance (lol, no question, there are too many). Now, if Tesla had lost key engineers that could be a different story.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Dana hull at it again. Reporting on general council for tesla leaving has to comment on musk calling someone a pedophile. She knows the term was pedo and she knows tesla was not involved in that at all all so the general council would not be involved. She missed the opportunity to bring up his divorces though

 

[jbcarioca]

Ok, anyone interest in the electric truck survey really ought to ready the original report from Autolist.
...

We don't know the sampling methodology nor demographics apart from age and prior truck ownership. In all past surveys I have seen, Tesla income and education skewed sharply up from almost every other brand, although both age and income have been strongly multi-modal. Occupations skewed sharply towards technical ones. Both Model 3 and Model Y are broadening the owner populations, no doubt, and Cybertruck will bring new audiences to Tesla.

It seems to me that Cybertruck is so much of a departure from norms that nobody, including Tesla, has any idea how large the target audience will be. All those orders, 250,000 we're sure, provide proof that receptivity is much, much higher than anybody thought.

Now we only need to get it into production in <two years.

Nobody at all seems to be considering the commercial and industrial markets from Police and municipal support to mining, agricultural and forestry services. Somehow it seems likely that all those will end out being material parts of demand. For many of those pure practicality, operating cost and durability will outweigh aesthetics.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ok, anyone interest in the electric truck survey really ought to ready the original report from Autolist.
Poll: Consumers prefer EV trucks from GM, Ford over Rivian, Tesla Cybertruck, but not by much
There is much more helpful information in it that clarifies the different ways consumers are approaching these options.


First age is a really good surrogate for willingness to buy any electric vehicles.


So right here is the problem for GM and Ford: their strongest support is from truck buyer in or nearing retirement. While they may have the money for expensive trucks, they aren't going to be easy conquests to any electric vehicle. Ford and GM will certainly have little incentive to get seniors out of profitable ICE vehicles and into electrics.

By contrast Tesla gets strongest support among young adults. Openness to new technology amd new aesthetics is greatest in this age group. The only hold back is the affluence to afford higher end vehicles. But I think Tesla is optimizing value and price here. So Tesla is well positioned to pick up a lot of younger buyers.

Middle age consumers seem most impressed with the exterior stylings of the Rivian. This is a good start, but will it be enough to draw buyers away from ICE trucks and into the electric market? If styling was a prime consideration, Ford and GM can easily match the styling. It may well be that the LL Bean aesthetic is the right note for many EV pickup buyers, but it is too easily copied. By contrast, Ford and GM will have a much more challenging problem matching the value, performance and price of the Cybertruck. (When is someone going to design a skin for the Cybertruck that looks like a Rivian?)

Finally, it is really helpful to compare the top reasons why a certain truck is preferred.

Cybertruck:


GM undisclosed EV truck

I want to contrast Tesla and GM respondents. Clearly GM will be banking on its brand and loyalty to that brand. This works for retention, but nothing stands out as a basis for conquest. Tesla OTOH is all about the performance and value that is the Cybertruck delivers. Notice that efficiency and Supercharging rank highly. This suggests that those preferring a Cybertruck have a keener appreciation for the practicality of EV ownership. Fuel efficiency is not likely a big value for current owners of fuel guzzling trucks, but it has a huge impact on electrics from how far you can tow stuff to how quickly you can charge. Consumers that are serious about EVs will care about charging, range and efficiency. So my impression is that Cybertruck fans are much closer to converting to an EV truck than are GM fans.

I think that Tesla will do very well in the early adoption stage of the EV truck segment. The relative advantages of incumbents will wear thin as the market transitions to early mass market, unless they are able to deliver solid value consistent with their brands. Even so Ford and GM will be fighting a battle of attrition to hang on to an aging consumer base. Tesla and Rivian will likely win over the loyalty truck owners who are most ready to switch to EVs. Often we hear concern about whether diehard truck traditionalists can be won over. I would recommend that the most resistant to change are most irrelevant to the emerging EV truck market. The focus rather should be on the easiest to convert within the next 5 years.

Well, I'm not in the retired-wanting-another-GM category. I once owned an nice '87 K5 Blazer (Manual... for the gas mileage???). My goal for the past 20 years has been to get another one (really miss it). But having owned a Model 3 and seeing the world unveiled, there's no way I'd go there now, which is why I'm currently waiting for my Cybertruck instead. I know how this goes, waiting for the Model 3 was just as long a wait.

But another key point made from the survey data is that GM, Ford, Tesla, and Rivian all have their own spaces to grown in the market. Meanwhile Jim Cramer suddenly jumps on the Tesla bandwagon today... coincidence? (OK, this is a stretch maybe.) But what if much of the "oil" shorting is coming from "auto" vs "oil" lobbying and money? No question money talks and oil does well there, but what if some of the resistance or noise in Washington has calmed some because there is a path forward for the incumbent automakers.

And this is why the stock is going up - I say these dots are connected.

 

[KarenRei]

Hmm, anyone here know a VIN person? Just found a lot of Model 3s in the OpenNY database registered with drive type "C"; I was only aware that A or B were valid. Is this a new thing?

5YJ3E1EC9LF587070

Model 3 VIN decoder describes the codes as:

A = Single Motor - Standard
B = Dual Motor - Standard or Performance
C = Base A/C Motor, Tier 2 Battery (31-40 kWh)

Anyone know what this might mean? Maybe just a typo? It's registered as 4116lbs, so surely a long range of some sort (although the dataset is a real mess).

 

[Drax7]

Cramer is a Haaavad lawyer, let’s see if Musk gets invited to his show soon.
Probably after Q4 results are in.
You want bullish, that is explosive.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Hmm, anyone here know a VIN person? Just found a lot of Model 3s in the OpenNY database registered with drive type "C"; I was only aware that A or B were valid. Is this a new thing?

5YJ3E1EC9LF587070

Model 3 VIN decoder describes the codes as:

A = Single Motor - Standard
B = Dual Motor - Standard or Performance
C = Base A/C Motor, Tier 2 Battery (31-40 kWh)

Anyone know what this might mean? Maybe just a typo? It's registered as 4116lbs, so surely a long range of some sort (although the dataset is a real mess).

I think the decoder has changed with 2020, C just means Performance now. The Stealth Ps also get C, so I expect Performance mix will look high in the reg data.

https://vpic.nhtsa.dot.gov/mid/home/displayfile/c646fbf1-8ba5-4575-af1e-f415a1131337

 

[Artful Dodger]

And toothbrush boy never gives up.

Don't you mean "toilet buoy"? Because that's where he finds inspiration for his tweets.

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

I just want to preempt any hypothetical negative sentiment about getting sold down below 360 today
If you look at the weekly chart, it is BEAUTIFUL

Even IF we don't close above 360 (and that seems to be the line in the sand that the manipulators would like to enforce today), we are still on a gorgeous and obvious, healthy uptrend

 

[KarenRei]

I think the decoder has changed with 2020, C just means Performance now. The Stealth Ps also get C, so I expect Performance mix will look high in the reg data.

https://vpic.nhtsa.dot.gov/mid/home/displayfile/c646fbf1-8ba5-4575-af1e-f415a1131337

Is C *only* performance/stealth, or can it also be AWD? Before, B could be either performance or AWD.