Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Is C *only* performance/stealth, or can it also be AWD? Before, B could be either performance or AWD.

A C VIN would only be an AWD if Tesla downgraded a P to to AWD specs to sell it. They seem to be better differentiating the drive units these days, so the B and C categories overall will likely have less bleed over/ conversion opportunities.

 

[dww12]

Why on earth wouldn't he? Taxis need space for luggage and passengers and the six passenger capacity plus locked storage makes it an ideal taxi.

Taxi? Home Depot / Uhaul rental truck.

 

[Steve m]

So, true, as if this matters.

In the US, attorneys are in great abundance (lol, no question, there are too many). Now, if Tesla had lost key engineers that could be a different story.

What was that old joke?

Why does California have the most lawyers per capita while New Jersey has the most toxic waste sites?

Because New Jersey got first pick.

 

[Artful Dodger]

that is only if Cybertruck is a failure.

Elon is already talking about making a smaller Cybertruck. That dream of making a "normal" pickup looks pretty dead unless something changes down the road.

Yeah, read Tesla patent on the giant casting machine. They think eventually they can do an entire unibody as one injection-molded part. The result will be lighter, stonger vehicle that's cheaper and faster to produce, even compared to flat-plate cold-rolled stainless steel, and it will have none of its design limitations imposed by machining/forming. I have no doubt that this is where they're headed. It'll just take time to get to develop die cast metal foam manufacturing tech. Maybe 5+ yrs? In the mean time: Cybertruck.

Elon he talked about the machine that makes the machine years ago. Months ago, he talked about ramping production to 20M per year. That's more than VW & Toyota combined. You don't get there without thinking outside the box.

Cyber has its place, but its not the destination. Its a means to an end.

Cheers!

 

[shrspeedblade]

There are a whole lot of calls around 360 that I'm sure MMs don't want to see in the money tomorrow....
Max pain looks to sit around 345 currently.

 

[Bobfitz1]

No, I'm asking about non-IRA accounts, do I need to restrict all option trading to my IRA account only (for capital gains reasons) or can I have LEAPS in my non-IRA account and still pay only capital gains rate on the long held shares in that same account?

"Taxed in the same way as stock transactions."?? -Meaning I can take the profits from LEAPS (taxed at standard income tax rate, I guess), then buy and hold stock shares that will themselves be taxed as cap gains if held long enough?

Or does the presence of LEAPS and other options in a taxed, non-IRA account always count as "not long-term holdings" where I'll get taxed as regular income vs. at the capital gains rate I'd get in a strict "buy and hold" account even on the long-held shares that have been sitting in that account too? I much appreciate the guidance.

Sorry, I'm not knowledgeable enough to answer your questions. However, regardless if you are trading stock and LEAPS from a non IRA or IRA account, the company you have those accounts with should have the knowledge to answer most or all of your questions.

 

[Opus BC fan]

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 +

 

[capster]

I'm with @ReflexFunds on this one: I think non-GF3 deliveries will be just fine in Q4 even without GF3, and Tesla is probably already highly confident in this outcome with 20 days still left in the quarter.

This means that by delivering say 1k or 2k units from GF3 in Q4 has little added Q4 value, but might as well make the difference to soundly beat Q1'2019 results - which "Q1 shock" must still be a vivid memory for Tesla higher ups. Why make Q4, an already record quarter with half a dozen of major records already, a bit better at the expense of Q1'2020 which is still somewhat of a question mark with a couple of headwinds such as the expected drop in the Netherlands and a smaller post-tax-credit drop in the U.S.?

Plus if GF3 overhead costs (fixed staff costs, running expenses plus depreciation and amortization) are say $40m per quarter and there are 1k GF3 deliveries generating $50m of revenue and $10m of gross profits, then this would materially hurt Q4 gross margins: Model 3 gross margins would drop by about 0.7%.

OTOH if they delay it to Q1 they might either recognize those expenses in Q1, where it will be absorbed by well over 10,000 GF3 deliveries if everything goes to plan, or declare it trial production costs and stick it into capex?

So I think there's multiple good reasons to delay GF3 deliveries to Q1'2020, and that this is basically a tactical call for Tesla. Also note that Tesla is apparently filling Chinese delivery centers with the new Model 3's - if there's any weakness in the end of quarter EU or U.S. deliveries push they could easily deliver 1k-2k units in the final week of Q4, on a moment's notice. We can call it a 'strategic reserve'.

Makes sense, but I’ve a couple of reservations:

1) If Tesla might be able to make enough to show an annual profit and start the clock on S&P 500 inclusion, they’d likely go for it.

2) Even though I consider Musk and the Tesla team to be extremely sharp and certain to be considering their moves along the lines you suggest, I also think they’re very aggressive. They might not be inclined to soft pedal, but rather keep the pedal to the metal.

So, I dunno. I definitely appreciate what you’re saying, but maybe still seeing them leaning towards maximizing deliveries. Exciting to watch, for sure.

 

[StealthP3D]

Next you know they're going to hire the Eagles to sing "Taycan... to the limit... one more time..."

Porche can save the money it would cost to hire the Eagles - Taycan owners will be singing that song for free anytime their daily routine involves a few side errands! But this might not end well...

You know how once a song get's in your head it won't go away? Rumor has it the Eagles are already planning to use Copyright law to monopolize on this tendency by suing Porche for causing massive copyright infringement by the drivers of their Taycan vehicles who can't help but sing this catchy tune every day after work on the drive home. Normally, singing solo in your car would not be copyright infringement but the Eagles attorneys have a novel legal theory that it's commercial use because it's being used to mitigate range anxiety caused by a product with sub-standard range. /s

 

[Nocturnal]

Well, Shortzes sold 2M shares between 10 and 10:30 am to knock the price down 3 bux.

Seems like a nice gift to the longs, wot? Thx Cramer. How many hrs/days 'til that's a wasted effort?

Shortzes have forgotten the 1st rule of Holes:

"When you're in a hole, stop digging!"​

Cheers!

Cheers!

Hmm, anyone here know a VIN person? Just found a lot of Model 3s in the OpenNY database registered with drive type "C"; I was only aware that A or B were valid. Is this a new thing?

5YJ3E1EC9LF587070

Model 3 VIN decoder describes the codes as:

A = Single Motor - Standard
B = Dual Motor - Standard or Performance
C = Base A/C Motor, Tier 2 Battery (31-40 kWh)

Anyone know what this might mean? Maybe just a typo? It's registered as 4116lbs, so surely a long range of some sort (although the dataset is a real mess).

C clearly stands for Chinese.

 

[KarenRei]

Man, I'm beginning to think that the OpenNY data is worse than useless. It's not just a huge inconsistent mess; it seems to be a variable mess. I remember reporting last month that October showed a meaningful decline in QoQ deliveries, particularly S/X. But I just re-ran it (to see how November did), and it shows a rise in October QoQ:

07/2019: 407
........Model 3: 309 / 75.9% :: ASP: $46778
................LR AWD/P: 197 / 63.8% :: ASP: $50643
................LR RWD: 7 / 2.3% :: ASP: $44714
................SR-/+: 105 / 34.0% :: ASP: $39663
........Model S: 42 / 10.3%
................--: 7 / 16.7%
................LR: 30 / 71.4%
................P: 5 / 11.9%
........Model X: 56 / 13.8%
................--: 11 / 19.6%
................LR: 36 / 64.3%
................P: 9 / 16.1%

10/2019: 423
........Model 3: 304 / 71.9% :: ASP: $48406
................LR AWD/P: 201 / 66.1% :: ASP: $51205
................SR-/+: 86 / 28.3% :: ASP: $40007
........Model S: 51 / 12.1%
................--: 7 / 13.7%
................LR: 39 / 76.5%
................P: 5 / 9.8%
........Model X: 68 / 16.1%
................--: 16 / 23.5%
................LR: 49 / 72.1%
................P: 3 / 4.4%

So it looks like there may be a meaningful lag in a lot of data in there. In short, if you try to use the data in a timely manner, it's probably wrong. And if you wait for it to settle out at least somewhat, it's probably obsolete.

There's 50 states in the US. Amazing that not a single one of them can keep even a monthly vehicle registration database up to date.

 

[SpaceCash]

So, I dunno. I definitely appreciate what you’re saying, but maybe still seeing them leaning towards maximizing deliveries. Exciting to watch, for sure.

I get the sense that they ARE trying to maximize deliveries in a big way right now. At the end of Q3, I had a Model S test drive lined up, and a few here chastised me for "wasting their time" at the end of a quarterly delivery push. I was annoyed at those implications but I still made sure that the store was not too busy (they assured me they were not), and they ended up just letting me take the S out by myself anyway.

This quarter they seem like they are really really working at full bore, and I would be surprised if they don't deliver every single car they possibly can at a frenetic pace.

 

[NicoV]

Ha ha, he's totally come over to the light side, incredible! And his wife wants the solar roof too.

And as we all know, wifey is ALWAYS right, eh lads?

probably his wife's opinion will prevent him flipping to the dark side again.

 

[wipster]

Screenshot. Almost everybody on this forum are blocked. Or better don't even bother posting, as nobody cares what he is saying.

I got a reply in there, wonder how long it will take to get blocked?

 

[JustMe]

Taxi? Home Depot / Uhaul rental truck.

Or tow truck!

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I got a reply in there, wonder how long it will take to get blocked?

Faster then Garfield eats lasagna.

 

[Nocturnal]

Why on earth wouldn't he? Taxis need space for luggage and passengers and the six passenger capacity plus locked storage makes it an ideal taxi.

100%. I would be shocked if you don't see hotels, resorts etc. buying them for that purpose as well. Now they buy those clunky passenger vans. The ugly ford passenger vans start at 40k. I took a shot at configuring one as close as possible to standard Tesla features and it's hitting almost 47k. It does seat 8 though. So for 7k less you will get a nicer vehicle, with 2 less seating capacity (though greater luggage capacity) and cost of ownership drastically cheaper. (in addition to standard EV savings you also save on constant dings and scratches)

Using an EV for this type of purpose is ideal. You take a short trip to the airport, come back and plug in. Easy peasey. I travelled weekly for years and always hated climbing into those ugly, rough handling vans.

2020 Ford® Transit XL Passenger Van | Model Details & Specs

With robotaxi the sky is the limit. Take a family of 6 to the airport, with luggage. Take 2-3 couples out on the town for date night etc.

 

[jerry33]

Or tow truck!

Not nearly large enough.

 

[SpaceCash]

Not nearly large enough.

It is if they use a trailer

 

[jerry33]

It is if they use a trailer

That's not a normal tow truck though.