Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

SP hunting the Upper-BB which is now at 363.70 and rising rapidly

(thx Cramer).

 

[SpaceCash]

YUUUUGE BUYS

 

[LN1_Casey]

It's because I purchased my 1 stock this opening.

You're all welcome.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Damn, went through 360 like through butter on h'uuuge volume.....

I bet a lot of sale triggers hit at 360, and the masses just didn't care.

 

[EV Promoter]

So, out of the GAP.
@Papafox, not be late tonight for your social duty

 

[Tslynk67]

IBD is based on the principals of founder William O'Neil of which a basic tenet is to buy on strength rather than on weakness. This thinking is in the line of Jesse Livermore and is what people consider 'trend trading' or 'momentum' trading.

Well looks like we hit their technical "buy point" (and then some)

 

[NakedLong]

Heh, optimal shapes can get complicated surprisingly quickly. For example, for arches:

• Arch bearing only its own weight: catenary
• Arch of negligible mass bearing a constant load per unit ground length: parabola
• Arch bearing a location-varying weight, such as a level floor of location-varying thickness reaching down to the arch that's holding it up (e.g. hollow arch inscribed in a rectangular solid): no name for the formula
• All three of the above but in 3d (vaults): no names for the formulae; all are much more complicated than their arch counterparts

All of them look rather "archlike", but the shape of the curve varies.

I once worked out the optimal vault formula for bearing a level floor of varying thickness down to the vault, and it was this ridiculously long multipart formula involving a function I'd never heard of that's not part of most standard math libraries (I don't remember which one). I remember that its lower walls are more vertical than a catenary or parabola, and the top more level - which makes sense, since the outer walls (pushing in) bear more load than the top (pushing out), so the former should be steeper (deamplify the inward force) and the latter shallower (amplify the outward force).

As for triangles... it's not so much the specific shape that matters (can vary depending on the overall structure you're optimizing for) so much as it is how far it extends out of plane. Stress declines proportional to the square of the distance you extend out-of-plane, while deflection declines proportional to its cube. Think of the difference between standing on the middle of a propped-up 1x6 board when it's laying flat vs. when it's on it's edge; the former case will deflect like crazy, while in the latter case, you'll probably not even notice any deflection.

Traditional truck frames are planes. Resisting torsion is thus very difficult for them, and you have to use more mass of steel to do so. Cybertruck's triangular frame by contrast extends way out-of-plane.

https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/2RMPK/s4/tesla-cybertruck.jpg

Looking at the frame of the CT it is not a proper truss, as it is missing the bottom part of the triangle where the doors are and I'm not sure the closed doors would be tight enough to bear any compression/tension unless the CT was in a serious accident. I suspect the primary idea behind the SS exoskeleton is rust and cost rather than strength, but strength will obviously be better than just a flat frame of the F150 like this:

http://bestride.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/2015-Ford-F-150-frame.jpg

I imagine the CT frame is also vulnerable to torsion like this video (though to a lesser degree):

Elon Musk on Twitter

The original video is here and worth watching:

But the primary fix for this type of torsion seems to be from Elon's reply that

> That’s why Cybertruck has active suspension height & damping control

I think the Youtube video is a bit misleading though, because having plasticity/flex in designs is common and useful. Like a building which is designed to sway in an earthquake... I'm not an auto engineer though - all my knowledge about engineering is civil/hydraulics/hydrology.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Is there not a truck thread/forum?

So much for a bounce off $360! Sky's the limit through year-end.

 

[Stretch2727]

Can't come soon enough and a good idea given my experience with delivery.

Inside Tesla's overhaul plan for its sales and delivery teams to solve one of its toughest customer challenges

 

[Krugerrand]

Having met him a few times I have to completely disagree. He's an entertainer, heart in the right place sort of guy. Entertaining is what he does and why he is currently paid. He found he made more money and had more fun doing this.

That said, he's very warm and approachable person that will sit for hours with audiences after an event answering every single f'ing stupid question about every stock/trend that is out there. He does it with sincerity and intelligence. No idiot there and certainly not a message board flamer. Is he the best investor ever, nope. The worse? better than lots of ex goldman types.

He's not the best stock picker, especially after 2000. He's very picky about having his past bad stock picks brought up, like many with egos. I would never buy or sell anything because of Cramer, but he's entertaining.

You find people who take money to spew crap about a company trying to save the planet, entertaining?

He doesn’t get a pass from me because he’s changed his ‘public’ position nor because he’s a ‘good’ guy off camera. ‘Good’ people don’t use their celebrity to hurt others simply because there’s a paycheck involved. Entertain in another way.

 

[SpaceCash]

Crazy how this stock has doubled just in the last few months...

 

[jhm]

From the 'Truck brands' survey:

​

Yeah, this article was a 'Push Poll', (just one slimey step above a N.Korean election). The problem with this article is Ford/Rivian/GMs e-Trucks are going to be NOWHERE near Tesla's spec for ANY of their range of Cybertrucks. NOR will their ICE trucks.

Specifically, the major's can't conpete with ANY of these Tesla specs: (which will only get better over the next 2-3 years until the launch)

• "value" - base features for comparables at the $40K price point
  
• "utility" - superior specs in all categories at the $50K price point
• "Supertrucks" - halo specs (F-150 Raptor) at the $70K price point

So yeah, this poll was at a "DeMuro" level of Deceptive...

Show me the million-mile powertrain, won't-rust-out, can't-dent-it ICE truck that the author thinks has similar specs today. Cybertrucks will still be mid-life and working on the farm 50 YEARS after their original purchase.

Cheers!

TL;dr no other trucks will have similar specs to Cybertruck, *including* Gas/Diesel

I don't think this survey aims to be deceptive. An awful lot of consumer research uses forced choice questions for methodological reasons. Often the goal is to prove how consumers frame their choices and the tradeoffs they are willing to make. It is not to directly size up a market. Tesla's can easily outsell Ford and GM on EV trucks 10 to 1, consistent with this research. That's not the question. The question is more about how those who prefer different choices look at those differently at the options before them. So it's about understanding the relative advantages of each competitor. These nuances are what drive marketing campaigns. No doubt Ford and GM will play to brand loyalty while Tesla will display the performance advantages of the Cybertruck. This is just playing to the relative strengths of each offering. These kinds of differences are the bread and butter of marketing.

The big problem Ford and GM is that what would make their EV trucks attractive also make their ICE trucks attractive and probably even more so. So from the get go they are cannibalizing their profitable ICE buyers to retain the most eager of them to go electric. What Ford and GM really need is something polarizing like the Cybertruck, that can attract new buyers (conquest) without depleting their existing loyal base (retention). Tesla, however, has beaten them to this. So the EV truck plays of GM and Ford are likely to be retention only plays. They're going to find it very hard to grow total truck sales within about 5 years.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Breaking news on Bloomberg!

"Tesla has lost its third general council in three years!"

Lol....it's pretty disgusting to watch this media manipulation up close.

 

[MartinAustin]

I expect shorts are starting to trim or close positions

 

[elasalle]

It's time to take the day off Hope to not be checking TMC till tomorrow

 

[Pezpunk]

Crazy how this stock has doubled just in the last few months...

no, what's crazy is that it's still below where it was 3 years ago.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I am sooooo glad I added more last March below $200. It's nice to see more people finally realizing what many of us here already know about Tesla and the lead it has over the competition. For example, Taycan was dubbed a Tesla killer, but now it turns out to have far less range than a Model S at half the price. Building long range, high performance EVs is not trivial, especially at Tesla's price point.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

It seems to me that, theoretically at least, an electric vehicle could even give the ICE vehicle a "head start" (pulling the EV backwards at some small initial velocity to start with). ...

Taking down an F-150 4x4 that had a "head start" would make a really awesome video.

Please, please, add the Ford Million Pound Choo-Choo as well. Let the Ford get going, then back up the Cyber, hook on to the caboose and commence to reverse that m*+her...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Up $3.08 in pre-market. That's nice to wake up to.


Those nuts think that it's just $100 so everyone will cancel, they just ordered to be cool or that those are fake reservations because of the couple people who were charged twice.

More importantly, nearly every single reservation holder that plunked down that 'hun' will NOT be buying an F-150 in the next 2-3 years. Devastasting for their sales.

Cybertruck Marketing is like a full battalon of Royal Marines Commandos parachute dropping into the rear echelons of deepest Mordor. Ford, much like Genghis Khan, the Hun is now banging at your back door.

 

[StealthP3D]

He flipped for the right reasons both his daughter and wife told him to buy the car. If he had come up with this on his own, I'd worry. But the women in his life are probably much more reliable.

I agree, but to but a finer interpretation on this, I would say Cramer never actually "flipped". That his previous position was not sincere.

Based on his mannerisms and facial expressions when he talks about his "flip" I would say he know TSLA was an amazing story with a decent chance of success all along. But that he was just playing it down for nefarious reasons, to throw whatever influence he thought he had around. But his wife and/or daughter told him he was doing a bad thing and didn't want to go down as being on the wrong side of history. And he could see that all his influence he could muster wasn't going to change Tesla's newfound strength and the near inevitability of their success.