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Mercedes Delays Electric Debut After Jaguar and Audi SUVs Flop
  • U.S. launch of EQC crossover gets pushed back a year to 2021
  • Jaguar’s I-Pace, Audi’s e-tron trail Tesla’s years-old models
Mercedes-Benz is putting off the U.S. debut of its first electric vehicle by a year in the latest sign of just how difficult a time automakers are having replicating Tesla Inc.’s success. - Bloomberg

I’m shocked the article told they truth. Others spin it as the demand for the EQC is so great in Europe, they cant supply the US yet.
 
Mercedes Delays Electric Debut After Jaguar and Audi SUVs Flop
  • U.S. launch of EQC crossover gets pushed back a year to 2021
  • Jaguar’s I-Pace, Audi’s e-tron trail Tesla’s years-old models
Mercedes-Benz is putting off the U.S. debut of its first electric vehicle by a year in the latest sign of just how difficult a time automakers are having replicating Tesla Inc.’s success. - Bloomberg

I think Mercedes knew it would be a problem if they released another vehicle with an EPA range of 200 miles....
 
Some good China related info, especially regarding BBA - Chinese buy BMW/Benz/Audi for spouses and in-laws and how the EV market subsidies are abused. Impressing the in-laws was used as an argument against Tesla market penetration, but I'm sure that as soon as you take one of your in-laws for a test drive in your new Tesla it would help win them over to the brand. I found the long wheel base being popular over there quite interesting... the Chinese like to flaunt their success and be driven around... I wonder how this fits into FSD.

Ignoring the expected value of FSD and Energy seems like a total cop out though. I tend to agree with Elon that energy will equal auto revenue so that would raise his price target to 846. Then if you add FSD you can probably add a 0 on the end to 8460. Like most analysts he is backwards looking rather than forwards looking... not a good way to model Tesla. 200K units a year for CT with only US being a market for it is just wrong. CT is going to find a market all over the world, and I would estimate closer to 500K/year in 5 years from now worldwide.

Also he doubts the Tesla brand will penetrate China. Having seen the initial reception in hiring/store openings it's pretty clear there is already a huge fan base, and when you have the best product it will sell itself through word of mouth anyway, regardless of internet censorship or language barriers. You only need to look at the iPhone to know how Tesla is going to fare in China.

It seemed like he knows all the advantages Tesla has over everyone else, but despite knowing this he decided to massively lowball his target of 423 because he doesn't want to appear too crazy next to the other analysts with their $10 bear targets. Still an interesting video to watch because of his insight into the Chinese auto market and consumers... also a good understanding of how ****ed traditional auto is, but that is probably obvious to everyone following Tesla closely here.

To someone on Reddit, Rob explained that Alex is a bigger optimist on TSLA valuation, than the $423 price target would indicate. But Alex feels he needs to put very highly defensible and quantifiable numbers in there, so that his clients can’t argue against his result.
 
Just went back in time to rate your post 4277362 Informative. Good call. Up a cool 5% for the week. Curious...what is your projection for next week?View attachment 488097
Well my crystal ball is as fuzzy as anyone else's.
However some things even dim people have to realize.
1.Tesla is about to triple it's output of car's. China and soon Germany factory's
2. FUD is less and less effective...I see it here in the heartland in in conversation's with people every day.
3. TE is really just starting to gather ...um steam
4. It was apperant the some large entity has been accumulating and they are the ones to move the stock.

As many of the smart people here have stated time and again...Tesla has turned the corner

GAME. SET. and MATCH!
 
Last night, in smallish California city of Ventura, an hour north of Los Angeles. Jaguar had six or more of these iPace's with LED light shows parked downtown. They were spread out over a space of a few blocks each car with a salesman standing by. Though, to me, it shows Jaguar's desperation to try and get these low demand cars sold, I am appreciative that these will receive a lot of attention and people will learn electric cars are arriving even from Jaguar.
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I’m shocked the article told they truth. Others spin it as the demand for the EQC is so great in Europe, they cant supply the US yet.
That is what Daimler is claiming in an email sent to US customers waiting for the EQC. This was posted in a local fb group...

"Thank you for your interest in the EQC — an innovative new direction for Mercedes‑Benz which is getting a lot of attention! It launched in Europe and other markets several months ago and has generated so much interest worldwide that Daimler AG has had to make a strategic decision to first support the growing customer demand for the EQC in Europe. As a result of this decision, the U.S. market launch date of the Mercedes‑Benz EQC will be rescheduled.
We will continue keeping you updated on the latest news of this groundbreaking release as we gear up for the U.S. debut of the EQC in 2021."
 
The Chinese market is already cracked open for Tesla. It is like this guy can only see six inches in front of his nose.

Loved the interview. Very nearly a must watch deep dive with an analyst. Rob was a great interviewer and Alex was thoughtful, logical and very well spoken, although maybe a little long winded on details about Nio.

If you do not have time, here are some of the takeaways I got:
1) China luxury market may be tougher to crack. It’s all about prestige, impressing in-laws, demonstrating value. The leaders are Bentley, BMW and Audi. It may be tough to crack for Tesla, as a newcomer, Chinese not as familiar with Tesla because of the Great fireWall, and because the vehicles might be lumped as just another EV.

2) Places zero value on Energy and Autonomy. He was very humble about it and said he just didn’t understand it well enough to value it. Also spoke about how he only put stuff in the Model he could defend.
—-My take: If Solar Roof successfully ramps into the thousands per week as planned, with decent gross margins, I think it could be a bigger stock catalyst than Model Y, since that’s already accounted for. And of course if Tesla cracks FSD, we’ll all be rich beyond the greatest dreams of avarice:)

3) Although he has the concerns about China, he has zero concerns about U.S. and Europe and basically stated Tesla just nukes the heart of whichever market they enter (with the exception of Cybertruck which he only credits for 200k/year). Because it is just U.S. and he doesn’t see it up there taking huge portions of Silverado, Ford...
— My take: Cybertruck will tear open not only the Pickup, but also the full-size SUV market

4) China ZEV system could be a license for Tesla to print money IF the government takes a hard stand.

5) Reiterated some of Sandy Munro’s points about Tesla’s massive advantage being vertically integrated. Gave an example of Mobileye, just trying to work out a simple mapping deal with VW, that just took quarter after quarter after quarter of meetings.

Probably left out a lot, but if you can’t watch, that was off the top of my head.

Hope that helps.

I just feel better and better about Tesla’s chance to skyrocket every day! Every day I feel better, not that TSLA will skyrocket every day, though you never know:)
 
Well my crystal ball is as fuzzy as anyone else's.
However some things even dim people have to realize.
1.Tesla is about to triple it's output of car's. China and soon Germany factory's
2. FUD is less and less effective...I see it here in the heartland in in conversation's with people every day.
3. TE is really just starting to gather ...um steam
4. It was apperant the some large entity has been accumulating and they are the ones to move the stock.

As many of the smart people here have stated time and again...Tesla has turned the corner

GAME. SET. and MATCH!
The only thing that concerns me is this effort to mandate deactivation of AP until ? What? It’s”safe”? Seems to me that could be a huge hit to Tesla valuation.
 
Tesla Analyst Alex Potter of Piper Jaffray interviewed by Rob Mauer

Warning!!!: not quite as entertaining as watching Cramer drooling over Tesla. Maybe just a boring alert. We already know Tesla is kicking ass, so no reason to watch over an hour of this. Unless of course you’re trying to cure insomnia.
 
The only thing that concerns me is this effort to mandate deactivation of AP until ? What? It’s”safe”? Seems to me that could be a huge hit to Tesla valuation.
Ironic isn't it....Tesla AP is valued at almost zero...yet if AP was outlawed the FUD and Stock Price hit would be huge.
 
To someone on Reddit, Rob explained that Alex is a bigger optimist on TSLA valuation, than the $423 price target would indicate. But Alex feels he needs to put very highly defensible and quantifiable numbers in there, so that his clients can’t argue against his result.

$423 should be reachable soon if shorts keep capitulating. 2019's whole move can be explained by shares shorted. So if you extrapolate and eliminate the 23 mil shares shorted that has been persistently there since the beginning, we should reach $500.
 
WTF? How can any analyst say that with a straight face? He literally has one job to do. Sure Autonomy is tricky to value, but energy should be a fairly simple thing to put a value on: this is current sales & margins, here are projected growth of sales & margins, therefore its worth “X” amount.

Not just this guy -- few analysts ascribe any meaningful value (or any value at all) to Tesla Energy.

For example, none of Ark's valuations -- including their $6000/share in 2023 bull case -- includes a TE component.

Pretty wild considering Elon has said several times that he thinks Tesla's energy business could be as big as the auto business.

I made a suggestion a while back that Ark include a TE valuation but they haven't done it yet and I think they are still getting their heads around the energy business. (If anyone has a good model for Ark to consider you can post it on github. ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model)

Seems like most analysts are unwilling to put any significant value on the energy business until it grows enough to make a meaningful impact on Tesla's financials and can no longer be ignored. If Solarglass roof ramps anywhere near as fast as Elon has suggested, that could start happening within the next year or two.
 
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Mercedes Delays Electric Debut After Jaguar and Audi SUVs Flop
  • U.S. launch of EQC crossover gets pushed back a year to 2021
  • Jaguar’s I-Pace, Audi’s e-tron trail Tesla’s years-old models
Mercedes-Benz is putting off the U.S. debut of its first electric vehicle by a year in the latest sign of just how difficult a time automakers are having replicating Tesla Inc.’s success. - Bloomberg

I have delayed for quite some while revealing the following, but consider this news to be the appropriate time to share with the forum that -

Among the many guests we host at our Lodge, we try to learn something about most of them. Especially if we find that their home address is "Stuttgart" or "Fremont" or "Dearborn" or "Grosse Pointe" - and so forth. Or if their reservation forms are from a business e-dress like "[email protected]".

This is not so useful as sitting in the WallSt catbird seat of fund management and being feted week-in and -out by the corporate world, but properly played (or improperly), it gives me a stealth-innocence that can lead to revelations that otherwise might stay closely held.

Knowingly hosting one of the seniormost managers of the Chevy Bolt project, for example, enabled me to share with you well in advance of the car's unveiling some of its aspects, as well as how GM at that time was viewing Tesla.

But, to the point at hand. Most recently, we hosted a soon-to-retire highly placed engineer from Ford. He shared with me - and in no uncertain terms revealed that his beliefs were corporate gospel* - his understanding of EVs, as follows: "We know how to build an EV. The purported advantage that Tesla has? It doesn't exist. There is, in fact, nothing easier than building an electric car. It's a chassis/frame/body, electric motors, and some batteries."

And THAT hubris is indicative of the crow that Mercedes, and Jaguar, and Audi, and ..... now are eating.

All that said, I will say I like the look of these wraps @gene just shared!
Last night...Jaguar had six or more of these iPace's with LED light shows parked downtown...Though, to me, it shows Jaguar's desperation...I am appreciative that these will receive a lot of attention and people will learn electric cars are arriving even from Jaguar.
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*I cannot say whether or not Bill Ford shares this attitude, belief or sentiments. There has been a smattering of evidence he sincerely is trying to push his great grandfather's company in the right direction.
 
The only thing that concerns me is this effort to mandate deactivation of AP until ? What? It’s”safe”? Seems to me that could be a huge hit to Tesla valuation.
I think they’ll be fine. They’re making enough progress to stay ahead of regulation. The federal government has been doing a lot of deep state :) work on the subject. Research for self driving trucks and cars is happening at the policy as well as technical level. The true laggards and worker reps will lobby, but there’s billions at stake. UPS, FedEx, Amazon and most goods manufacturers have huge profits at stake. GM or some other Corp finding itself hopelessly behind is going to have every customer they’ve ever had clamoring for the tech.
Wait for this quarters safety stats, I’d expect another 15% gain in miles between accidents and possibly more. They may have new technical hurdles, like lasers on the cameras to keep water and ice clear, it will require retrofitting. Regardless of level 5 timing, level 3 is close and the safety data versus unassisted human driving will become more torturous to deny.