tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
With the exception of ARK, I suspect, who rightly have built out their analyst organization based on *highly integrated, convergent platforms* not based on 20th Century notions of industry vertical.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
With the exception of ARK, I suspect, who rightly have built out their analyst organization based on *highly integrated, convergent platforms* not based on 20th Century notions of industry vertical.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Plays better than "poverty manager" during the client acquisition phase.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
As the guy has pretty much the only really good Tesla flavored podcast out there (this is an early foray into video), you might do him the courtesy of at least spelling his name right -- Rob Maurer. In apology you should go support him on Patreon.
A love triangle is the answer to live the universe and everything!
Not sure if you have a typo there, but I’m not sure I would base any valuation on a revenue multiple. Revenue by itself is relatively meaningless until you know how profitable that revenue is (or will be in future), in which case you are then deciding to do a valuation on something other than revenue.
There is a reason why the largest revenue generating company in the USA - Walmart - Only has a Market Cap worth 0.66x it’s Revenue, and that is because it’s valued on its earnings, and where earnings are heading, rather than it’s more than half trillion dollars in revenue.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Just went back in time to rate your post 4277362 Informative. Good call. Up a cool 5% for the week. Curious...what is your projection for next week?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Both revenue multiples and earnings multiples are valid ways to value a company - and both can lead to bogus results.
Earnings multiples (P/E ratios, etc.) are typically used for established, slow growing companies.
P/E ratios are meaningless for growth companies, so revenue multiples are used. Not because they work better, but because there's not much else to use.
(I think for Tesla all established valuation methods are bogus due to the complexity and uncertainty of the business plan, but this is not advice.
)Both revenue multiples and earnings multiples are valid ways to value a company - and both can lead to bogus results.
Earnings multiples (P/E ratios, etc.) are typically used for established, slow growing companies.
P/E ratios are meaningless for growth companies, so revenue multiples are used. Not because they work better, but because there's not much else to use.
(I think for Tesla all established valuation methods are bogus due to the complexity and uncertainty of the business plan, but this is not advice.
I would prefer to use PEG ratios for growth companies rather than P/E, or alternatively would use EV/FCF or EV/EBITDA etc when fast growing companies have temporary negative earnings. But in truth I usually just look at the end game for growth companies in terms of likely ballpark profits in at least a conservative scenario.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
The Standard Range MY has been removed from Canadian order form. Was hoping to lock in pricing for this model. It is smart for Tesla not to commit to pricing for product too far in advance. Personally I do believe the cost of Standard Range MY will increase for those ordering in future. I priced out my M3 delivered June '18 with same specs and it is now >$5k CAD more expensive, Government rebate $8k less and no monthly charge for all inclusive connectivity. People are realizing that these cars will carry a higher premium in the future. I see a lot of people locking in at today's prices (think Cybertruck) before they increase. If anyone notices the Standard Range option is posted, let me know. Funding secured.
bhtooefr
Active Member
Meanwhile, re: fires: Ford Also Recalls Roughly 550,000 Trucks Over Potential For Seat-Belt Systems To Cause Fires (Jalopnik)
Some good China related info, especially regarding BBA - Chinese buy BMW/Benz/Audi for spouses and in-laws and how the EV market subsidies are abused. Impressing the in-laws was used as an argument against Tesla market penetration, but I'm sure that as soon as you take one of your in-laws for a test drive in your new Tesla it would help win them over to the brand. I found the long wheel base being popular over there quite interesting... the Chinese like to flaunt their success and be driven around... I wonder how this fits into FSD.
Ignoring the expected value of FSD and Energy seems like a total cop out though. I tend to agree with Elon that energy will equal auto revenue so that would raise his price target to 846. Then if you add FSD you can probably add a 0 on the end to 8460. Like most analysts he is backwards looking rather than forwards looking... not a good way to model Tesla. 200K units a year for CT with only US being a market for it is just wrong. CT is going to find a market all over the world, and I would estimate closer to 500K/year in 5 years from now worldwide.
Also he doubts the Tesla brand will penetrate China. Having seen the initial reception in hiring/store openings it's pretty clear there is already a huge fan base, and when you have the best product it will sell itself through word of mouth anyway, regardless of internet censorship or language barriers. You only need to look at the iPhone to know how Tesla is going to fare in China.
It seemed like he knows all the advantages Tesla has over everyone else, but despite knowing this he decided to massively lowball his target of 423 because he doesn't want to appear too crazy next to the other analysts with their $10 bear targets. Still an interesting video to watch because of his insight into the Chinese auto market and consumers... also a good understanding of how ****ed traditional auto is, but that is probably obvious to everyone following Tesla closely here.
I don't believe standard range Model Y was ever available in the USA as a preorder. Are you certain it was on the Canadian page? I am a skeptical.
I don't think they wanted to hold on to that high of a deposit for so long since standard range had a date further out into 2021.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
To: Boss Short
Subject: Elon and the meaning of life.
Boss, last nite Elon sent this out on his twitter feed.
I sent it over to Bletchley for decoding.
They sent it back with a note "It is what it is".
I sent it over to the Physics department.
They sent it back with a note "Check with mechanical engineering".
I sent it over to our marketing department.
They sent it back with a note "Orders numbers Cybertruck"
I sent it over to our poetry department.
They sent it back with a note "The eternal triangle"
I sent it over to Betty in our psychology department.
She sent it back with a note "Three way, your place or mine"
I give up. If it means anything, we may never know.
Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times
Subject: Elon and the meaning of life.
Boss, last nite Elon sent this out on his twitter feed.
I sent it over to Bletchley for decoding.
They sent it back with a note "It is what it is".
I sent it over to the Physics department.
They sent it back with a note "Check with mechanical engineering".
I sent it over to our marketing department.
They sent it back with a note "Orders numbers Cybertruck"
I sent it over to our poetry department.
They sent it back with a note "The eternal triangle"
I sent it over to Betty in our psychology department.
She sent it back with a note "Three way, your place or mine"
I give up. If it means anything, we may never know.
Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times
I was just about to buy an I-Pace in Rio de Janeiro because I am tired of waiting for Tesla to arrive. The day I was to take delivery I finally received the actual spec sheet (equivalent of US Monroney) for the car I was to receive. Then, and only then, I discovered a host of missing features, notably being the ability for OTA updates, but also quite a few features included on HSE but not on SE. Despite that I had been sold an HSE the dealer said there are no HSE fro Brazil but that the SE was "just the same".
The short range does not bother me. Being forced to regularly visit the dealer does.
I still think the I-Pace is a really good first try, but it quite reminds me of the I-3 and I-8, neither of which are ready for prime time.
Then I decided to look at a Hyundai Niro EV. Zero OTA update (salesman, "what is that?"), zero navigation aids to locate charging or anything else, zero effective range management or battery management. That seemed promising too, but they simply do not understand BEV operating conditions. Of course the as-equipped Niro EV actually is more expensive than is the Model 3 LR.
I have not yet actually experienced the Audi or the MB, although I have looked at them carefully enough to know they are far too expensive, just as is the Jaguar. For those prices they all need to raise their games quite a bit.
I stay very long TSLA. Every time I look at another alternative they seem to be a decade out of date. The original Tesla Roadster would be competitive with those today were it to have been an SUV.
There will be significant market expansions coming, and every new offering will end out promoting TSLA.
That ignores TE, the bigger growing play.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
i could have sworn I saw it earlier this week. Maybe I was dreaming.
So about the in laws, let me give you some insight because the guy is spot on when he was taking about China.
It's not so much you have to convince the in laws but more about convincing your OWN parents. The Chinese culture is a very top down culture. The children is expected to listen and respect their parents. None of this "I buy or do what I want". It's more " I do what makes my parents happy." A lot of BBA cars (and housing for that matter) are purchased by the parents in the first place to make their kids eligible for marriage. Kids are usually not financially strong enough to make multi-million dollar purchases and the parents throw in lots of bones to help their only child. So these parents are dead set in spending their cash on what works which are BBAs. They have no room to experiment because of the use case. Big city road conditions are terrible and most people just sit in traffic anyways so the performance of the car matters very little.
If the child is a somebody, their purchasing of a Tesla may be talked down by the parents as they have massive control over the children, and will always give their 2 cents on the matter because that is what Chinese parents do.
That being said, the quota system is frustrating and some may never get a license plate because the lottery system is unreliable. People are willing to spend up to 20k US on the secondary market just to get the right to buy a BBA because marriage is the single most important thing on parents mind.
So if Tesla can get the marriage status, then it takes off like a rocket ship. It must obtain endorsement from the parents and I feel celebrity endorsement is the most powerful driver here(need roaster 2 asap).
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But you're forgetting the savings on government spending and the items that aren't applicable to cars, or that are only applicable to ICE.
1. BEV pay tolls the same as anyone (At least in my state), so zero difference there.
2. Most road damage is caused by heavy trucks, they don't pay nearly their fair share.
3. Each gallon of gas or diesel burned cause $12 to $17 in healthcare costs. ICE car drivers should pay their fair share.
4. ICE vehicles spill contaminants over the roads which have to be cleaned up. BEVs reduce that by at least 90%.
5. BEVs don't have oil changes so there is almost no recycle oil cost. (just the reduction gear oil, 0.5 liters every 100K miles or so).
Oil and gas companies get billions in subsidies, makes the BEV programs look like less than pocket change. I'd be all for dropping any BEV subsidies if all the oil and gas subsidies were also dropped. Note that besides the direct subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, there is also all the military spending to protect the oil supply. Why don't the oil and gas companies pay for that?
What 'standard range Model Y'?
Order page from 15 Mar. 2019 ,when it was opened up for the first time:
RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Mercedes Delays Electric Debut After Jaguar and Audi SUVs Flop
- U.S. launch of EQC crossover gets pushed back a year to 2021
- Jaguar’s I-Pace, Audi’s e-tron trail Tesla’s years-old models
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