Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

What 'standard range Model Y'?

Order page from 15 Mar. 2019 ,when it was opened up for the first time:

Karen, Thanks for pointing out my err.
I believe Tesla can run with manufacturing capacity on the long range MY alone for the foreseeable future without having to add the lower price standard range, although this is what i’m Waiting for.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

As much as I hate acronyms AND WISH YOU WOULD NOT USE THEM in this forum, I'll put forth the following.

Add Lexus to the Benz/BMW/Audi blend of high-falutin' statusmobiles.

That way, you can use

BLAB.

POTD

LOL

 

[RobStark]

I’m shocked the article told they truth. Others spin it as the demand for the EQC is so great in Europe, they cant supply the US yet.

The truth is ZEV/Carbon Emission credits are worth much more in Europe than the USA and they have limited battery supply.

It is cheaper to pay any fines ( or buy credits from Tesla) in USA than Europe.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Contact (email - phone) those who represent you in Congress regarding this issue. I have.

Here's what I wrote:

Please aggressively support the proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits. However, the bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer.

Excellent idea!

Hope you don't mind, but I took your idea and added a bit?

****************************************

Dear Congressman,

Please aggressively support the pending/proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits.

A basic review of the overwhelming climate science reveals just how far behind we are, and how great the risk has become, due to decades of inaction. Please see climate.nasa.gov among many other sciential sites.

Note that any proposed bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer. That is a remarkably unwise public policy and places us all at risk (regardless of what you may see on Fox News).

Thank you.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Before my son was 18, I used a UTMA account (both parent and minor are on the account until the kid is 18, then you move the contents to a new account). I funded it and bought him 25 TSLA shares @~190’s (not this year, lol) and he bought about the same dollar amount in BA.

Been a bumpy year or so for his trading account.

So, maybe I convinced him that index funds are the way to go, as my wife suggests?

But yes, I followed the textbook with his 529.

Heavens NO! An Index Fund is NOT the way to go.

Buying an Index Fund means you are supporting/owing companies that abuse animals, destroy the environment, and many other evils.

Please, keep funding his account as an example of how small amounts of careful investments in a company that is doing very good things to save the planet will make hundreds of thousands of dollars over time.

 

[gene]

Excellent idea!

Hope you don't mind, but I took your idea and added a bit?

****************************************

Dear Congressman,

Please aggressively support the pending/proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits.

A basic review of the overwhelming climate science reveals just how far behind we are, and how great the risk has become, due to decades of inaction. Please see climate.nasa.gov among many other sciential sites.

Note that any proposed bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer. That is a remarkably unwise public policy and places us all at risk (regardless of what you may see on Fox News).

Thank you.

I used your template, thank you.

 

[Singuy]

I found this strange.

Do people not buy cars after marriage ?

I'd like to see what native Chinese say, rather than someone from outside (even if he knew the language).

ps : I think we all understand why people buy high prestige brands. The reasons are the same in all countries.

Yes they do, and the current craze are SUVs. The single children millennial are married with children now.

With all this being said, I think Tesla appease strongly to people who wants the latest tech. Young Chinese are pretty liberal and all embrace this AI/high tech future. It has always been like this, where highest tech always equal to high prestige. There's a reason why automation is everywhere in China, Shanghai looking like a city from Judge Dredd, and Shanghai Disneyland made all other Disneyland feel 20 years old. Tesla (and before Apple) screams "cutting edge technology" which will sell cars.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Yes they do, and the current craze are SUVs. The single children millennial are married with children now.

With all this being said, I think Tesla appease strongly to people who wants the latest tech. Young Chinese are pretty liberal and all embrace this AI/high tech future. It has always been like this, where highest tech always equal to high prestige. There's a reason why automation is everywhere in China, Shanghai looking like a city from Judge Dredd, and Shanghai Disneyland made all other Disneyland feel 20 years old. Tesla (and before Apple) screams "cutting edge technology" which will sell cars.

Sure but can Chinese Millennials afford cars any better than American Millennials can?

 

[Green Pete]

Sure but can Chinese Millennials afford cars any better than American Millennials can?

Yes, Chinese Millennials don't have student debt. Also there are probably as many upper class Chinese as middle class Americans.

China's giant middle class is still growing and companies from Walmart to start-ups are trying to cash in

 

[SpaceCash]

Fire prawn?

View attachment 488188

that's uhm... not a prawn..

 

[Doggydogworld]

3. Each gallon of gas or diesel burned cause $12 to $17 in healthcare costs.

The US burns about 230 billion gallons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel per year.
230b * $17 = $3.9 trillion
Total US health cost = $3.6 trillion

Eliminate oil and our health care costs will be negative! Doctors and hospitals will pay us $1000 each per year as a token of gratitude for allowing them all to take early retirement.

 

[Singuy]

Sure but can Chinese Millennials afford cars any better than American Millennials can?

So when it comes to evaluating the "demand for cars at X price point", first you have to talk about scale. China has 6x more people than the U.S. My prediction is the MAJORITY (over 50%) of Chinese Millennial couldn't even dream of a new car over 10k US. It's just not going to happen for them. But that still leaves a crap ton of people who can afford it.

And when I talk about car affordability, it has very little to do with the actual millennial and has everything to do with this person's family. Unlike western culture, the Chinese parents usually pay for their ONLY child through school, buy them (or fork up the down payment) a condo, and purchase them(or throw in half) a car. Chinese parents(especially folks who live in major cities) consider this their duty and consider this a way to make their child eligible for marriage(especially if the child is male).

So a good amount of wealth was actually given by the government($$$ for relocating their residence to refurbish major cities to show face for the Beijing Olympics and foreign investors). Another set of wealth comes from what I think is a housing bubble fueled by culture(remember how every child needs place of resident to be eligible for marriage?). Many parents sold their rights of the inner city property that was given to them by the government to purchase the package(car/condo) for their child in a cheaper location. A good amount of children are college graduates who are jobless, or make actually subpar money. Their parents are the ones with the wealth(in addition to life time of saving).

This is why I said convincing the parents of what is trendy or what is a "good idea" ends up being very important for Tesla. You think brand has power in the U.S? You haven't seen anything yet.

So it gets even more complex from here.

Gas cars require yearly inspection and needs to be junkyarded after 10 years with no exception. I am not sure about EVs. So the cycle to purchase new cars end up being very strong in China as all second hand cars are all subjected to this 10 year mandatory expiration date (which makes used cars less valuable). This in conjunction with quotas and credits with EVs..the calculation ends up just being who knows..its complicated. Seems pretty bullish since a "cash for clunkers" is built into Chinese transporation law.

 

[Mike Smith]

David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run

'By the time the carnage was over, assets at Greenlight dwindled by more than half, from $6.3 billion to start 2018 to $2.5 billion at close. “We lost money continually” throughout the year, Einhorn told limited partners at year-end. As one frustrated investor put it, “You got killed when the market was going up and killed when the market was going down.” Since the end of 2014, his fund has plunged 40%-plus, while the S&P 500 has gained over 25%.'

 

[Singuy]

David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run

'By the time the carnage was over, assets at Greenlight dwindled by more than half, from $6.3 billion to start 2018 to $2.5 billion at close. “We lost money continually” throughout the year, Einhorn told limited partners at year-end. As one frustrated investor put it, “You got killed when the market was going up and killed when the market was going down.” Since the end of 2014, his fund has plunged 40%-plus, while the S&P 500 has gained over 25%.'

Damn, this guy bet against AMD and TSLA. Suck it! Hope you enjoy your 40% plunge. I'm up 100% since 2017 because I bet the opposite of you..and you call yourself a pro.

Can't believe he bet against AMD due to crypto. That is so freaken dumb. He has every tool at his disposal including manipulation and this is the best thesis he can come up with? Investing is really not that hard bro.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

"Tesla’s Musk says solar, energy storage will grow faster than electric cars, and there’s some truth to it"

Look at this pathetic headline on CNBC - "there's SOME truth to it". I'm SO glad we have this guy to let us know when Musk is telling the truth and when he's lying.

What other company gets these kind of BS headlines? It's as if 95% of what Musk says is a lie. And even worse about this article is that this guy thinks we should believe that he knows more than Musk and is the authority to tell us when Musk is lying or there might be SOME TRUTH to it. SMH

 

[Tslynk67]

And don't forget! I also was a guest at your Alaskan lodge. It was a fabulous stay!

Thank god you managed to escape and alert the authorities!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

David Einhorn Exits Billionaire Club After Horrible Investment Run

'By the time the carnage was over, assets at Greenlight dwindled by more than half, from $6.3 billion to start 2018 to $2.5 billion at close. “We lost money continually” throughout the year, Einhorn told limited partners at year-end. As one frustrated investor put it, “You got killed when the market was going up and killed when the market was going down.” Since the end of 2014, his fund has plunged 40%-plus, while the S&P 500 has gained over 25%.'

Too bad he didn’t put it all in TSLA. He would be considered a genius in a couple years.

 

[Doggydogworld]

It is a demo because they didn't pay. Waymo is not allowed to charge.

Well, they definitely charge Waymo One regular riders. But you may be onto something. They originally did not charge Early Experience riders. For all I know that could still be true. And though some contend driverless applies to both regular and EE (the memo went out to at least some regulars), I have not seen proof yet. So maybe they have permission to do paid ride-share in Phoenix, maybe they don't yet.

In CA they definitely don't. Their approval specifically said no revenue rides.

Of course some say they'll never charge for rides, but will monetize riders by vectoring you to local businesses, serving ads and selling your travel history to 3rd parties. With Google it's always a possibility.

 

[MC3OZ]

So when it comes to evaluating the "demand for cars at X price point", first you have to talk about scale. China has 6x more people than the U.S. My prediction is the MAJORITY (over 50%) of Chinese Millennial couldn't even dream of a new car over 10k US. It's just not going to happen for them. But that still leaves a crap ton of people who can afford it.

And when I talk about car affordability, it has very little to do with the actual millennial and has everything to do with this person's family. Unlike western culture, the Chinese parents usually pay for their ONLY child through school, buy them (or fork up the down payment) a condo, and purchase them(or throw in half) a car. Chinese parents(especially folks who live in major cities) consider this their duty and consider this a way to make their child eligible for marriage(especially if the child is male).

So a good amount of wealth was actually given by the government($$$ for relocating their residence to refurbish major cities to show face for the Beijing Olympics and foreign investors). Another set of wealth comes from what I think is a housing bubble fueled by culture(remember how every child needs place of resident to be eligible for marriage?). Many parents sold their rights of the inner city property that was given to them by the government to purchase the package(car/condo) for their child in a cheaper location. A good amount of children are college graduates who are jobless, or make actually subpar money. Their parents are the ones with the wealth(in addition to life time of saving).

This is why I said convincing the parents of what is trendy or what is a "good idea" ends up being very important for Tesla. You think brand has power in the U.S? You haven't seen anything yet.

So it gets even more complex from here.

Gas cars require yearly inspection and needs to be junkyarded after 10 years with no exception. I am not sure about EVs. So the cycle to purchase new cars end up being very strong in China as all second hand cars are all subjected to this 10 year mandatory expiration date (which makes used cars less valuable). This in conjunction with quotas and credits with EVs..the calculation ends up just being who knows..its complicated. Seems pretty bullish since a "cash for clunkers" is built into Chinese transporation law.

My understanding is that a strong motivation of the Chinese government is to reduce then eliminate oil imports, China has limited domestic reserves mainly in the south China sea and perhaps in disputed locations claimed by multiple countries..

So the government are going to set the rules heavily in favour of EVs then if those rules don't work make the rules even more in favour of EVs,

There will be some young people with reasonable jobs or families on the rise, so the portion of the Chinese population that can afford a car will continue to grow.. If Tesla gets Robo-taxis working in China, then my guess is, most of the working population can afford car travel.

I'm actually happy that the analyst is conservative, and has raised well informed doubts where he has good knowledge, and steered clear of making predictions where he has no knowledge. So I am sure he can easily defend his target and his target is credible. As is target is south of the current market price that is all that matters... As the situation changes, I expect him to revise his target.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Contact (email - phone) those who represent you in Congress regarding this issue. I have.

Here's what I wrote:

Please aggressively support the proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits. However, the bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer.

An alternative that would really set a fire under everyone is a flat pool across all manufacturers. First, say, 1 million EV’s, by any manufacturer, sold get the credit and none after that.