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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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$389.61 is the ATH from 2017 September 18.

Today's intraday high of $388.15 was within 0.4% ($1.46) of a new all-time-high.

(If you are a TSLAQ member and you didn't tell your wife that you have disastrously shorted Tesla, it's still cheaper to come clean and cover now than at $420+. Just do it and be over with it - and you'll also sleep better. It will stay between us, we won't tell anyone.)
 
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Does anyone doubt that Elon Musk has carefully orchestrated the short-burn/bull run of the century? The perfect storm?

And, if so, it's right on time! Elon time, that is. This could continue to build right into and past earnings. Yes, there will be reprieves along the way, obviously. Because all hell is breaking loose!

At least all my options think so!

I recall Charles Gasparino saying in last quarters earnings that Tesla said they have the short sellers right where they want them, implying a HUGE confidence in the foreseeable future.
 
Fox business picked up the Tesla-Fire-Sale-In-China -- I'd say the media is doing their darnedest to knock $TSLA down for the shorts.
Fox had a story up yesterday about the shorts feeling the burn haha also this China discount is likely resulting in a look of strength for Tesla. They appear to be able to do no wrong. Every story is being flipped to a positive spin where as 6 months ago they were spinning it the other way.
 
The price action today looks like shorties are fighting for their lives.

I think shorts lost most of their trading power at around $300, made a last stand at around $340 and are currently little more than margin squeezed ghosts of their former selves. They wasted their final reserves of Hail Mary FUD stories IMO, and none had any lasting effect on the price.

I believe TSLA price action of the past couple of weeks was defined by bullish sentiment, profit taking by investors (well deserved), and waves of short covering as new price levels get breached, plus the options market makers delta hedging leveraging effect of that @ReflexFunds has documented yesterday in this fantastic tweet chain:

Thread by @ReflexFunds: "1) At Tesla the huge options market (Calls on 105 million shares, Puts on 135m) is a very powerful feedback loop for the stock price. Higher […]"

"What is the delta exposure to a +$10 move in Tesla share price? For +$10 the net change in delta hedging requirement from the options market and convert hedging is + 3.6 million shares or $1.4bn of Tesla stock purchases. This is an incredibly powerful feedback mechanism."​

(Not advice though.)
 
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...

Just this once, you're operating on a dataset that is out of date. PSA's financials have been decent for some years now, and to my surprise, Carlos Tavares turned Opel around in record time. Something GM tried for over a generation to no avail...

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It's not unreasonable to suspect that the Fiat part of FCA won't make him stumble either, while Jeep and Ram ostensibly improve the group's North American position. The China business is lacking. If they put their mind to it, they can have a go at competing with VW in EVs. That's the crux of the matter from our perspective, of course.
Believe me, I am a major fan of Tavares. OTOH, he had some decades of GM mistakes to eliminate, almost all of them obvious. he also had excellent cooperation from ever-so-slightly desperate union leaders and government entities. Finally he had quite good newish platforms to replace the ancient Opel array. That bought him spectacularly unexpected results and unprecedented financial results. Under GM they had not been really profitable for decades. In many respects what happened here was directly analogous to Tata with JLR.

Now is quite different. The success of BEV transition now requires scale they have not met before. The cars are not really quite so signifiant as are these:
Peugeot, Citroen and Opel to have all-electric versions of compact vans | The Driven

How can they manage that kind of transition for FCA? They have the modularity and they know how to do it. The question is: how that can be done with Fiat?

I want them to be successful, but the odds are really against it being quite so easy.

Net: I think they'll get there, perhaps, but they'll need credits sill and they'll need much better supply than is currently evident in the pipeline.

I really hope I'm wrong!
 
I think shorts lost most of their trading power at around $300, made a last stand at around $340 and are currently little more than margin squeezed ghosts of their former selves. They wasted their final reserve of Hail Mary FUD stories IMO, and none had any real effect on the price.

I believe TSLA price action of the past couple of weeks was defined by bullish sentiment, profit taking by investors (well deserved), and waves of short covering as new price levels get breached.
Here's a mad theory:
Maybe the shorts lost a big source of funding when that money went and bought the stock, lock and barrel, after the price was down and fresh money rolled in?
I'm thinking of a recent IPO here.
 
They might have a better chance clearing out a forest plantation in Brandenburg ...

No place for short fuses.

It's funny - noone ever could be bothered to reply be it with nonchalant critique to my repeated mention of Tesla's upcoming battery day and the number of 2TWh in comments to FT articles. Might be about to change.

In other news, the Netherlands are now officially underTesla.

registraties bijgewerkt t/m 17 december 2019

december 2019
totaal: 16.510
1 Tesla Model 3 5.898
2 Kia Niro 419
3 Toyota Aygo 407

Just no letup - about 800 cars more in one day. Even if all of Q1 falls flat, this is amazing and the obvious answer to the current through in NO registrations. While DE (Germany) is laboring under a government-induced short-time EV hiccup.
 
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That's ridiculous! All bombs are made of steel. Once the trees are harvested it will be a simple matter to look for deeper bombs by dragging a large format metal detector over the area. They would not have planted the trees without insuring they could be harvested without a hitch. All the trees are the same age and were planted in a flat field. And, for all I know, they might have aerial solutions (like ground penetrating radar) that eliminates the need to drag a metal detecting array around the feilds.

This is a big nothing burger if you expect it to cause significant delays.

Concrete bomb - Wikipedia

Something different then I was looking for actually. I thought I remembered that the Germans at the end of the war used concrete to encase the explosives due to a shortage of metal...
 
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Tesla China denied the story immediately and broadly with "this is the first time we heard about it".

Tesla doesn't need to individually deny every single false claim in a bogus story.

Is not it obvious that Tesla costs will be lower after ramp up and bringing parts production to China? Of course ability to cut prices does not mean that they will or if they do when. That depends entirely supply and demand balance. Tesla had changed their strategy over the years. In good old days they charged what they thought was the fair price. Now they go more for maxizing some function of sales and profit. In good old days they added hardware improvements in response to cost improvement. Today they mostly cut costs.
 
That's ridiculous! All bombs are made of steel. Once the trees are harvested it will be a simple matter to look for deeper bombs by dragging a large format metal detector over the area.

It's not that simple though, a big hazard are white phosphorous bombs that the Allies sprinkled Berlin with by the thousands of tons - the total cumulative tonnage of the Bombing of Berlin was close to 100,000 tons.

The phosphor in these is still causing injuries today and is hard to detect, because it will be there even if most of the metal has oxidized already.

Phosphor is also one of the sources of wildfires in the area in the summer, when temperatures are high enough for spontaneous combustion.
 
New income source coming soon.

Looks like they're going to offer acceleration upgrades. It hasn't launched yet but this disclaimer is brand new in the upgrade section. As someone who has desperately been wanting to pay to upgrade my AWD to a Stealth P, I'm very pleased.

Screen Shot 2019-12-18 at 10.16.47 AM.png
 
Does anyone doubt that Elon Musk has carefully orchestrated the short-burn/bull run of the century? The perfect storm?

And, if so, it's right on time! Elon time, that is. This could continue to build right into and past earnings. Yes, there will be reprieves along the way, obviously. Because all hell is breaking loose!

At least all my options think so!

I recall Charles Gasparino saying in last quarters earnings that Tesla said they have the short sellers right where they want them, implying a HUGE confidence in the foreseeable future.

what is impressive is that Elon’s discipline this time - no crazy tweets, no baiting the shorts- nothing that can be construed later as stock pumping. I hope he stays out of it and just enjoys the show!
 
Zacks: Tesla Soars to 52-Week High: Will It Reach $400 in 2020?
Shanghai and Berlin Gigafactory further demonstrate Tesla’s EV world dominance plans. The firm’s focus on expansion of product portfolio, introduction of car-sharing services and development of self-driving capability is commendable, and is likely to drive Tesla further.
Impressive sales of existing products, aggressive expansion efforts that will allow the company to manufacture and sell autos and batteries in Europe and Asia, and exciting future products have made Tesla one of the hottest stocks of 2019, with share price nearly doubling since the beginning of June.

The company is finally meeting management’s highly ambitious goals. Considering the tailwinds, the stock still has plenty of upside potential left. It appears that other aspirants in the electric auto market are going to have to keep chasing Tesla for the foreseeable future.