Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

Business - NYTimes.com

So is it true that Tesla is now third largest automaker at $72.8B behind Toyota at $232B and VW at $98.5B? Daimler is at $60B.

 

[SMAlset]

Sorry to repost an old video, but does this guy look more and more like an investment genius or what?! Everything he said here is spot on...and this was back in May.

Dan

I recall watching him when that aired. I thought he was one of the more intelligent guests they had on. He got it.

 

[sparcs]

My understanding is that there are new incentives in China for CN-made cars that don't kick in until January 1. Or maybe it's that Tesla doesn't qualify until Jan 1. Something like that. I could be wrong. Clearly they are producing and shipping, though.

obviously producing from GF3, but i have yet to see they even delivered one to a customer in China. There are a few guys on twitter who are pretty aware of what's going on in China and it's been quiet on the final delivery front.

Wouldn't it have shown up already on Chinese social media if it had already happened like Ross Gerber is indicating?

 

[wipster]

On that, I did my part. Paid $2k to upgrade my car. Now waiting to go home and connect to WiFi.

We'll be waiting anxiously for your report tomorrow!

 

[woodisgood]

Business - NYTimes.com

So is it true that Tesla is now third largest automaker at $72.8B behind Toyota at $232B and VW at $98.5B? Daimler is at $60B.

By valuation. Expect the talking heads and media to start focusing on absolute number of vehicles sold, just as BMW did with their twitter account.

 

[Foghat]

The investment case for Tesla solar roof/energy storage/energy market software creating multiples greater of market value to Tesla.

It fits a diverse number of economic theories:
—Workers ownership over the means of production i.e. home owners produce own energy, use their own energy, sell there own energy in markets, which allows workers to have leverage in corporate/industrialized environment where energy is essential to producing products and services.
—Market based economy i.e. Individual homeowners and small business owners can buy and sell energy in a distributed network market place and can also provide services to large centralized utilities at fair market value.
—Distribution of wealth to wider population, reduce concentration of wealth, velocity of money i.e. individual homeowners get paid for excess energy on a distributed network energy market. Homeowners use self produced energy to run home, drive vehicles and farm equipment, conduct business— reduction of costs to live and conduct personal business increases frees up capital for other uses.
—Universal Basic income i.e. all homes will have control over energy production thus generate a basic income for the household for as long as home generates energy regardless of employment outside this energy production value.
—Asset backed money i.e. realigns the backing of money from gold or fossil fuel energy to kWh backed money based on total national distributed energy capacity of production (like tWh per year, etc) which can be efficiently measured and utilized for transparent, stable international currency exchange and trade. Efficient global pricing.

As such it crosses multiple political and economic perspectives which drives action in Tesla’s direction. As “first mover” here with its technological advantage and capital investment in scaling of its production, Tesla is already positioning itself to be a leader in this massive transition of a traditionally multi-trillion dollar global energy marketplace.

I’m not going to even mention to economic impact of recycling Tesla products will have on the market place (JB Straubel I see you).

Tesla energy is the iceberg to the legacy economy Titanic. There will be many more days like today on the market as more new capital comes to the Tesla table as energy investors. It’s just the beginning.

 

[Curt Renz]

Ark hasn’t been selling shares since $350

View attachment 490305

The emails that I've received from ARK indicate that their last TSLA sales were on December 12, one week ago, when the shares closed under $360. Their rule is to not buy any more of a stock that is over 10% of a fund (as TSLA is in 3 of their funds), and possibly sell some of it to buy more of conviction stocks that have dipped. Based on past routine, I would have expected ARK to be paring back some its TSLA this week. Apparently CEO Cathie Wood has reason to feel confident that TSLA shares will keep running for a while, with minimal risk of a significant pullback.

 

[tinm]

Assizhullkolodnylopez...

I seriously doubt the journalists are short TSLA.

 

[wipster]

With the price going up the way it is, without a significant reduction in short interest which my initial assumption would be the primary driver, I was musing today if there are some big money interests that see an opportunity here. We know the good things coming, so I’d assume they do as well. The vulnerability and the opportunity are out there for those who have the ability and opportunity to seize it.

I think Montana skeptic spoke true for once, $TSLA is very dangerous right now.

For longs too though, I’m up nearly 40% in less than 2 years with meager resources, and nervous to add any more until I have more confidence in the current trading range.

I have yet to see Mr. Fossi speak the truth about anything related to Tesla, at least intentionally. If something he wrote did happen, believe me it was merely a coincidence. I think the State of Montana should sue him for defamation.

 

[woodisgood]

I seriously doubt the journalists are short TSLA.

I do wonder about the mechanics of their financial arrangements. The whole thing is fascinating.

 

[jhm]

By valuation. Expect the talking heads and media to start focusing on absolute number of vehicles sold, just as BMW did with their twitter account.

Yes, forgot to add "by market cap" into my already overly wordy question.

 

[M3Rider]

I asked this question before because I don't know. How are the operational cost realized if Tesla delivery cars in GF3 this year? And is this why they are waiting for Jan 1st just so it doesn't cost Tesla a year worth operational cost just to deliver a few cars in 2019?

If opinion of ValueAnalyst on Twitter
Is to be valued, then it doesn't matter much.

 

[JRP3]

I seriously doubt the journalists are short TSLA.

Not the exact point I was making.

 

[AlMc]

If opinion of ValueAnalyst on Twitter
Is to be valued, then it doesn't matter much.

Personally, I did not in the past when VA was posting on TMC or now.

 

[Thekiwi]

I think it's highly unlikely we'll see record revenues and record profits. I have 20k S+X and 85k M3 in my model which would lead to 6.7B in revenue and 91M profit.

The previous revenue record is 7.225B revenue from Q4'18, which Tesla could break if they deliver 22k S+X and 92.5k M3.

The previous profit record is 311M from Q3'18, which Tesla would barely break if they delivered 25k S+X and 100k M3. Or perhaps with more profits from Energy division, further OPEX efficiencies, FX tailwinds, and/or tax credits. I see this as highly unlikely though.

I personally expect Q4'19 financials to be solid, but nothing extraordinary. I'd love if the stock dipped because of it so I could accumulate cheap for another few months, but positive sentiment around Giga 3/Model Y/Solar Roof and 2020 guidance could easily outweigh that.

Barring terrible macros, Q1'20 and Giga 3 should definitely send us well beyond $400 though imo, and we might never see a SP of $3xx again after it.

I’m curious as to why you are predicting a sequential quarter on quarter drop in profit on increasing Revenue (and likely margins)?

====================

Horace Dediu on Twitter

"China electric vehicle market down 43.7% in November following 45% drop in October. Subsidies withdrawal causing kink in adoption curve."

Found this tweet while browsing through Spiegel's feed. These numbers seem extreme, but if there's any truth to them, couldn't that also be caused by the impending MiC M3 launch and customers placing an order for that instead of buying other EVs?

Horace Dediu is actually a very smart fellow - who was one of the first independent analysts to fathom what the iPhone was going to do for Apples financials, at his site Asymco.com, and is one of Dr Clayton Christensen's Students & collaborators on developing Disruption Theory (aka “the innovators dilemma”)

I’ve had several discussions online with him over the last half decade about Tesla. He has always been negative on the company as he just couldn’t see why they would be considered a disruptive company (he considers all of Teslas innovations as “sustaining” rather than “Disruptive” - I disagree of course). (Off topic: Horace bought a vehicle from Tesla once - it was a used BMW i3 that tesla presumably used for competitive analysis)

Currently Horace is not just negative on Tesla, but ALL car companies - as he is the defacto leader of the “MicroMobility” movement (e-scooters/e-bikes) and holds conferences around the world, hosts a podcast on the subject, is a consultant/speaker at many council/city planning events globally, and recently received tens of millions in VC funding for a private company called Bond Mobility.

So TL;DR: Horace is a smart guy, but his interests are currently aligned perpendicular to Tesla.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m curious as to why you are predicting a sequential quarter on quarter drop in profit on increasing Revenue (and likely margins)?

====================



Horace Dediu is actually a very smart fellow - who was one of the first independent analysts to fathom what the iPhone was going to do for Apples financials, at his site Asymco.com, and is one of Dr Clayton Christensen's Students & collaborators on developing Disruption Theory (aka “the innovators dilemma”)

I’ve had several discussions online with him over the last half decade about Tesla. He has always been negative on the company as he just couldn’t see why they would be considered a disruptive company (he considers all of Teslas innovations as “sustaining” rather than “Disruptive” - I disagree of course). (Off topic: Horace bought a vehicle from Tesla once - it was a used BMW i3 that tesla presumably used for competitive analysis)

Currently Horace is not just negative on Tesla, but ALL car companies - as he is the defacto leader of the “MicroMobility” movement (e-scooters/e-bikes) and holds conferences around the world, hosts a podcast on the subject, is a consultant/speaker at many council/city planning events globally, and recently received tens of millions in VC funding for a private company called Bond Mobility.

So TL;DR: Horace is a smart guy, but his interests are currently aligned perpendicular to Tesla.

So his pick is an e-bike or e-scooter over Tesla? lol.

 

[Lessmog]

We really need to find a new metaphor for nominal performance as expected. Its a new Millennium, we have our 21st Century tech, now we just need to find a way to express this zeitgeist in a way that finally puts our fossil past to bed.

Anybody? TIA.

Discharging all cells at max C-rate ?
Revving at max Amps ?

Je m'excuse d'ètre en retard. And I'm still 300 msgs behind.
But
It seems AD already identified the term, which sounds familiar from various Falcon launches. Millennium or not.

OK, back to the oars for me then.

 

[Sudre]

Alright financial number crunchers!

Did Tesla just offset the extra MIC depreciation with the Model 3 software upgrade?

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

what makes me feel ultra smug this week is that once more we have passed that glorious point where my profits from TSLA trading exceed the cost of my 2015 model S 85D. bwahahahaha.

 

[SMAlset]

You mean like the CHAdeMO adapter. I bought that almost a year before I finally got my Sig X because there were no Superchargers in Pennsylvania when I reserved my X. I've never used it as now there are Superchargers and destination chargers wherever I go. I wonder if it works?

Speaking of charging, did you guys see that Tesla and EVGo have partnered and EVGo will be installing Tesla connectors on some of their chargers? Thought that was an interesting turn of events and should be beneficial for many. Wonder how long the change up will take. Believe from the article it will include the faster charging capability. Should save Tesla from trying to expand to areas before they can reasonably do so and will give them more charging coverage across the U.S.

Tesla partners with EVgo to deploy Tesla connectors on their nationwide charging network - Electrek