dhrivnak
Active Member
It is high. But sometimes on a trip there are few choices. I will always chose a SuperCharger over the competition but there are many places yet with no SuperChargers.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
What can I say, good timing.
It seems unlikely anything comparable will come around again. In the worst case, I think we can temporarily go back to 350 if some major Q1 issues, but otherwise it can be a march upward with no better deals...
The sneak peek preview is what's spooking me.
This can change the outlook significantly besides the automotive margins etc. Sure, it will not happen tomorrow, but in a year that imperfect picture may start affecting valuation in many people's minds.
A few more calls could pay for 100% of the truck and maybe solar roof. I don't have enough, just realized that. I would prefer not to touch shares.
So, options day 
Unless something apocalyptic happens, gazillions of puts expiring worthless and a LOT of call holders making serious money:
Unless something apocalyptic happens, gazillions of puts expiring worthless and a LOT of call holders making serious money:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
In addition to potential GF3 deliveries in December that Ross Gerber was hinting at in that interview, after the deep subsidies cut this summer the Chinese EV market appears to be in a free fall based on November data ... except for Tesla:
"Tesla Bucks China Car Slump as Registrations Soar in November (Bloomberg)"
"Registrations of Tesla cars climbed to a five-month high of 5,597 vehicles in November, compared with 393 a year earlier, according to state-backed China Automotive Information Net, which gathers and reports car-industry data."
5,597 November deliveries are incredibly high, they are comparable to the Q2 peak in June, and they are the strongest ever 2nd month of a quarter in China, by a large margin. And none of those deliveries were from GF3 ...
"Registrations of Tesla cars climbed to a five-month high of 5,597 vehicles in November, compared with 393 a year earlier, according to state-backed China Automotive Information Net, which gathers and reports car-industry data."
(Note that these registration stats are very accurate for Tesla: if it got registered in this Chinese database then it's a certain Q4 delivery.)
Some of these deliveries were probably a pull-forward effect of the planned December 15 tariff rise (now cancelled), but still, +1300% year-over-year November growth in the world's largest EV market - take that TSLAQ!
Thanks @kbM3 for posting that link. I thought I was going to record 5 minutes on my thoughts about today's $400+ close, but ended up sharing for over 30 minutes!
There was a FSD sneak peek during Autonomy Investor Day too, and that did nothing. If it rallies further, I think it'll be more of a coincidence timing wise. I'm still making up my mind about how and when I expect the market to attach a value to Tesla's autonomy program, but I don't think the release of 'feature complete FSD' will do all that much to move the stock.
And yes, I doubt I'll ever see an investment opportunity again in my lifetime like Tesla earlier this year. I actually never traded options until ~6 months ago, but there was a poster on r/teslainvestorsclub who mentioned he owned 10x $420 Jun'20 Call Options. That in combination with the financial models I had recently started making for Tesla, made me decide to start trading some options. Definitely very lucky timing on a few things coming together.
I feel like Q1 will be quite good considering all the news coming out of China surrounding Giga 3 production. But like I mentioned a few pages ago, I think Q4 financials could be decent but slightly below expectation. With a bit of luck that'll push us back into the $300s, and give all of us some more time to add more shares and options as we see fit.
Wow! Journalistic trash. Low life scumbag is lying without even a semblance of honesty.
Linette Lopez on Twitter
Linette Lopez on Twitter
People rarely survive 110mph crash.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Phew, been catching up over the past few days. The quality of postings during these mini squeezes is certainly something to behold.
Volkswagen ID3 has 'massive' software problems, as company begins year of EV introductions - Electrek
Don't worry about VW, I hear that they still have at least 10 software developers working on the other 33 imminent vehicles:
Volkswagen to launch 34 new models in 2020 | Autocar
To be fair to VW, at least they are trying to close the gap with Tesla. An 'agile' phrase:
The Electrek article covering this:
Volkswagen ID3 has 'massive' software problems, as company begins year of EV introductions - Electrek
Don't worry about VW, I hear that they still have at least 10 software developers working on the other 33 imminent vehicles:
Volkswagen to launch 34 new models in 2020 | Autocar
To be fair to VW, at least they are trying to close the gap with Tesla. An 'agile' phrase:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Very little was shown about that FSD demo - it was done with Tesla's drivers, near Tesla's premises, and most people participating were under NDAs or were just passengers.
We don't really know what the effect of those demos was on the few investors who experienced it, but we do know that Tesla's capital raise was oversubscribed.
I just listened to it, and loved it! I subscribed to your channel, and I shared the video on Reddit.
There are few differences between 1st sneak peek and what might be coming for Christmas.
1st one was not real, because nobody knew how long they would iterate on it before releasing.
If they release feature complete now, it does few major things:
- boosts Elon's credibility as far as progress/ timing of things, i.e. end of 2020 they might start applying for approvals, this is 1 year away
- puts this into the hands of all users, who will start doing their own YouTube reviews and TV interviews. Think Gerber Ross, Kathy Wood, Chamath Palihapitiya, even Cramer.
If the quality does not disappoint, this will get a lot more publicity and recognition.
- allows FSD revenue recognition & better margins
Not sure why Q4 below expectations? My expectation is higher volume ->better margins, more TE, power increase revenue, etc... should not be worse than Q3.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Elon Musk on Twitter
Needs a few more days of validation, then early access, then wide release
This suggests that the FSD update is fairly sizeable - I'm officially getting excited!
Needs a few more days of validation, then early access, then wide release
This suggests that the FSD update is fairly sizeable - I'm officially getting excited!
cyclingthealps
Member
"Zug verpasst" or missed the train.
So yesterday I imagined that all the Longs are already sitting on the train, waiting for it to leave the station. The conductor blew on his whistle and the doors closed. Somehow the train started to move but only very slowly.
What was weird in my imagination that I expected the Shorts to be on the Platform and see a complete Chaos. Screaming, trying to break open the train doors, pushing each other, throwing money at the Longs through the windows to get their seats.
But they were just sitting in the station hall eating their "Curry Wurst" and drinking their Coffee and looked completely calm and relaxed.
So yesterday I imagined that all the Longs are already sitting on the train, waiting for it to leave the station. The conductor blew on his whistle and the doors closed. Somehow the train started to move but only very slowly.
What was weird in my imagination that I expected the Shorts to be on the Platform and see a complete Chaos. Screaming, trying to break open the train doors, pushing each other, throwing money at the Longs through the windows to get their seats.
But they were just sitting in the station hall eating their "Curry Wurst" and drinking their Coffee and looked completely calm and relaxed.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, the 2022 Jan 21 $400's LEAPs you bought were a good yet conservative pick: they traded at around $20 back then (2.5 years worth of theta, comparatively little delta and vega, depressed IV), now they are trading above $100 with pretty good spreads.
They'd probably have been a good pick even if $400 didn't break this fast.
In terms of buying only theta and giving Tesla 1.5 years to execute, the 2021 January 15 690's were an even better deal, although riskier due to the higher strike price and the 1 year shorter expiry.
There's no way a 'sneak peek' will be the real feature complete. On the last conference call he said feature complete might go into early access before the end of the year, but he didn't sound super confident. And if a wide release of feature complete was imminent, we would've already gotten reports about it being in early access.
Looking at Elon's 2nd tweet on the topic, I'm now a bit confused as to what will be released during the holidays as a "FSD sneak preview". Will it be the feature complete that's going into early access for the holidays, and then eventually wide release a few weeks or months down the line? But his original tweet talked about it being part of a larger software update that sounds like it'll go into wide release. So it sounds like this would not be feature complete, but something much simpler that'll go into early access in a few days, and then a few days later into wide release just in time for the holidays?
I posted my model a few pages back, which admittedly is on the conservative side, but for a large part due to the 85M "Other income, net" tailwind in Q3, predicts Q4 will be less profitable than Q3. A few things could turn out better, but I still think it's unlikely that profits will be significantly higher than Q3.
Pretty good video, I agreed with most of it. He made a point about being an emotional bull driven by hope if you think the stock price will be 3500 by 2023. But I want to explore (non-emotionally) if that is possible. Based on just 20% car margins and ramp up to a few million units per year, it would never be that high, but if you take into account FSD how will that effect the 2023 share price?
Let's take Elon's aggressive timelines at his word and say FSD feature complete about now in dev, rolling out to prod early Q1. Let's give 1-2 years from now to get FSD to a point where it can drive without human supervision. I think this is close to how Elon thinks the timelines can work for FSD. So before 2023 you might get FSD. Now if a car can drive itself, then it can make 30K a year as a robotaxi, thereby making the value of the car something like 300K+. The car used to be worth 50K ASP and gave Tesla a margin of 20%, costing Tesla 40K to produce. It will still cost them 40K to produce, but the value of the car is 300K, but the profit per car will jump from 10K to 260K - 26 times. If you apply the same multiple to the share price it will jump from 404 to 10500 (1.8 trillion market cap). It seems crazy, but this is why FSD is such a wildcard with the Tesla share price. I think any good analysts need to spend a lot of effort considering Tesla's FSD efforts, because without this they are totally missing the biggest disruption aspect of Tesla.
Personally, I am not sure on the timing of FSD but from Elon it seems to be coming sooner than most investors realise, and it is going to change the industry more than most investors realise. Also, I think Tesla is in a much better position than other companies for FSD than investors give them credit for. Just like their other tech, I think they are several years ahead in solving the FSD problem. Considering the valuation of companies like Waymo, Uber, MobilEye/Intel, Tesla's FSD efforts are clearly not factored into the share price. Essentially most big Wall Street investors do not believe Elon will be able to make FSD happen, and do not think Tesla is leading the FSD race. I personally think Tesla's FSD efforts should add another 100B to the share price currently, adjusted over time as they make or don't make progress towards FSD. The first company to release FSD should be valued over 1 trillion at the time they release FSD.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
bhtooefr
Active Member
Might be instructive to look at the Dutch (or Danish, but the Dutch are ahead in this respect) example.
The old, especially with e-bikes, stay active in that model.
The young are taught from a very early age the rules of the road, and get independence that the American model of putting them in the backs of cars and driving them everywhere doesn't give them.
The infirm actually benefit from a micromobility-centric model as well, because the infrastructure that works so well for bicycles also works well for higher-speed electric wheelchairs.
Groceries... there are solutions for that. Panniers can carry a surprising amount - I can do a week's grocery shopping on my e-bike with a couple touring panniers - and then there's always cargo bikes that can carry much more (as well as transporting children who are too young to ride themselves).
(This is actually my e-bike with a load of groceries on the back.)
And, before trashing micromobility too much in this thread, and to make this all on-topic (somewhat)... it's worth a reminder that Musk has floated the idea of a Tesla e-bike. If this comes to fruition, micromobility becomes a revenue source for Tesla, too.
Yeah, anyone trying to buy at a specific price should be using a (buy) stop limit order. When it reaches the stop price it converts to a limit order. The buy stops are usually used by shorts for their covering strategy, but apparently also some momentum bull techniques use them too? But no reason we can't use them for the sake of having a share priced at $420 or $420.69 or any other number in our accounts.
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