Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

A lot of people getting way too excited about this FSD demo, look at Smart Summon

Apples to oranges. Smart Summon is HW2 software.

 

[Fred42]

JRP3, look at the door positioning on the two black car photos. They are the same which thereby makes it impossible to get a third row of seating, so that image simply is not correct. Scanning the internet, I could not easily find the actual wheelbase dimensions of the MY (or M3 for that matter). I did find this image (I wonder who the TMC forum member is?, not me) which to me better represents the size difference between M3 and MY. Time will tell. Hopefully not too much time.

View attachment 491295

When the Y was introduced I thought it had the same wheelbase as the 3 and was just a bit longer.
3 wheelbase: 113.2 inches
3 length: 185 inches

To visualize the size of the Y by comparing with an existing CUV, start with a Mazda CX-5; add 7 inches to its 106.2 inch wheelbase; add 6 - 8 inches to its 179.1 inch length; and you have the Y.

 

[Electroman]

I'm glad you posted that. The more I reflect on TSLA's 2019 price action, the more the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. Until now, I felt like that drop down to $180 was a mystery. I suspected it had to do with FUD and shorts but it didn't really make a lot of sense to me. Of course, it was good for me as I was able to double my position at $180/share. Now I think it was a coordinated multi-billion-dollar effort to "kill Tesla" when they thought Tesla would be at their weakest point and I think they planned it months in advance. The people affiliated with the billionaire shorts even use that language, "kill Tesla" when they talk about Tesla. They don't mean to, they can't help it, it just comes out.

I think the billionaire anti-Tesla detractors were convinced that demand for Model 3 would start to dry up after the $7500 tax credit was cut in half at the beginning of 2019 and most orders for reservations had been filled. That Tesla would be at their weakest point in June/July 2019. They also thought Tesla was over-extending themselves by building a huge factory in China that would make them mvulnerable to their attack. It makes sense they would rally their resources and attack at that weakest point. So, right when Tesla should have been rallying, they attacked the share price. I suspect they might have also pulled a few strings to foul up Tesla's supply chain or delivery channels too (previous to that). Not that it was all that effective. And the FUD was running thick and strong. The "professional" type of FUD, getting articles in MSM, appearances on CNBC, etc. The false information about the "pedo" diver from the private eye might have been part of this as well, who knows. In any case, that was a major attack on the share price that took TSLA share price far below what anyone who knew anything about Tesla's prospects would endorse. It really made no sense.

The only problem was that Tesla was actually executing masterfully and demand was climbing through the roof as people found out what a great car the Model 3 actually was. Production became more efficient. Sales continued to climb. The China factory was being built with very little capital outlay and was far ahead of the original schedule, a schedule their enemies didn't even think they could meet. Model Y was ahead of schedule too and demand was strong and growing stronger. China was showering Tesla with every present in the book. The Plaid Model S was kicking Taycan's butt. The fraudsters thought they had an opening when they saw what the Cybertruck looked like and the disastrous reveal with the window breaking. But then it went viral and, much to their horror, people started to like it. Orders were through the roof. Everyone was talking about it! Musk was victorious in the defamation lawsuit. Then it was learned the Taycan could only really go 200 miles! There was not a single competitor to Tesla in sight! How could Musk have pulled this off? They started to say he must be made of Teflon. Musk is Teflon man!

So the attack failed. The fraudsters threw a lot of money down the drain, money in addition to their normal shorting losses. TSLA share price has a LOT of catching up to do. Tesla's well-heeled enemies are recoiling in horror that it went so poorly. We can be thankful their wallets are lighter.

Thank you @Davidzhao365 for bringing this up and causing me to reflect on past events in a new light! It has been enlightning.

<clap .. clap.. clap>

In addtion to everything you mentioned, you are overlooking one important catalyst that brought the stock down early last year. It is the massive unexpected losses in Q1 (and in Q2 also). When Elon said, Tesla will be profitable and CF+ every quarter WS believed him and rewarded with a good run in Q4 last year and even early Q1 . But it turned out that not only were they not profitable they posted a huge loss - the keen bulls knew the reason and they it is not because of #nodemand. But WS felt betrayed for taking Musk's word at face value. That started the fall which then was exacerbated by everything what you had listed out.

If Tesla had posted a slim profit in Q1, we would have never seen less than 300 this year, inspite of all the FUD and attacks from the media.

 

[Big Earl]

Btw., I was wondering, could these be Class 7 cleanroom air handling units, or regular assembly factory air handling units? They seem larger than the ones on the main building, but maybe it's just due to the close up images.

Cell production requires a cleanroom environment, but the Battery Workshop is rumored to be module and pack assembly, plus powertrain (motor) production - i.e. no cell production.

I'd say that's a strong possibility. That's a lot of HVAC for a normal factory space, so something critical is happening in there.

The link below shows a good picture of what it might look like under that roof.

Clean Room HVAC System | Manufacturers | Makcleanair

 

[Mich]

Interesting considering we have a video that has someone claim to know someone in the EAP that already has it... Or maybe it is already with EAP users and they are fixing things that they reported.

But rolling out tonight could be good for TSLA tomorrow...

Software releases are rolled out in multiple phases. First one or two phases don't show up on teslafi, then there are a couple of installs (0.1%) and then it pauses for some days. Then there are 4-5% of the install base, then pause, then the wide release.

When Elon talks about the release tonight he probably means the 0.1% on teslafi.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am baffled by Toyota behavior regarding BEV’s.

Toyota == Kodak. Inexplicable, but it happens.

 

[Tslynk67]

Chargers at Ford dealerships will be a tiny fraction of the chargers available to Mach E owners.

The situation for CCS Network in 2020 will be FAR FAR better than early CHAdeMO network.

Public charging networks are a jungle. I agree there's lots out there, but good luck with finding the ones that work, or are in use, iced or for which you have an account.

Some say moats aren't a real advantage, the Tesla Supercharger network is a massive moat and an huge competitive lead.

 

[LJS22]

All their competitors seem to think this too. So long as everyone opposed to Tesla thinks this, I see no problems in Tesla’s future. The easiest way to ensure your defeat is to underestimate your opponent. (Tesla, on the other hand, has consistently overestimated every other car company)

Tesla short sellers hit $2.43 billion in 2019 losses as automaker's shares reach record high

Yap I saw this guy in the yahoo video talk about incoming competition. He said Tesla drivers are waiting for bmw to release their electric car so they can go back to a company they are familiar with.
The answers are in front of these guys and they keep falling back on competition. Its not Tesla that should be scared of competition it’s competition that should be scared of Tesla. Why Tesla should be scared of their customers going elsewhere is a mystery to me...it’s a downgrade and Tesla only has upward growth to steal customers, they own too small a portion of the market to be afraid.
But to be fair the guy said he’d never driven a Tesla before so he’s just ignorant

 

[elasalle]

paywall ..
Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (tesla-manufacturing-executive-bruggeman-to-exit-company)

 

[winfield100]

Public charging networks are a jungle. I agree there's lots out there, but good luck with finding the ones that work, or are in use, iced or for which you have an account.

Some say moats aren't a real advantage, the Tesla Supercharger network is a massive moat and an huge competitive lead.

PlugShare - Find Electric Vehicle Charging Locations Near You
However, like it was said, some chargers are ICE’d, some “ oh, that hasn’t worked in awhile” , some are, you gotta pay both to park and charge

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla short sellers hit $2.43 billion in 2019 losses as automaker's shares reach record high

Yap I saw this guy in the yahoo video talk about incoming competition. He said Tesla drivers are waiting for bmw to release their electric car so they can go back to a company they are familiar with.
The answers are in front of these guys and they keep falling back on competition. Its not Tesla that should be scared of competition it’s competition that should be scared of Tesla. Why Tesla should be scared of their customers going elsewhere is a mystery to me...it’s a downgrade and Tesla only has upward growth to steal customers, they own too small a portion of the market to be afraid.
But to be fair the guy said he’d never driven a Tesla before so he’s just ignorant

I cannot imagine a Tesla owner willingly going back to a bmw unless there is force involved.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks for the detailed write-up.

I think it's pretty clear that the regulatory vice for ICE vehicles is squeezing tighter - particularly in the EU and China.

In the EU, demand is being sapped by tax savings as you described, which will lead to higher manufacturing costs as economies of scale reduce. And then to make things worse, there are penalties on the ICE vehicles manufacturers do manage to sell - further sapping profitability. This is a truly terrible position for a low margin product dependent on high operating leverage.

Within a couple of years as governments inevitably continue to introduce EV subsidies it will just become impossible to create a high volume ICE vehicle profitably. During the same time, production costs of EVs are shrinking as these products are still at the start of their scale and maturity curves.

How could you not invest in Tesla when your product is being subsidised and the competition is being regulated out of existence.

I take umbrage at the highlighted sentence. You have to understand that the fossil-fuel industry has been and continues to be subsidised several orders of magnitude above renewables. A bit or a dichotomy really...

 

[Tslynk67]

PlugShare - Find Electric Vehicle Charging Locations Near You
However, like it was said, some chargers are ICE’d, some “ oh, that hasn’t worked in awhile” , some are, you gotta pay both to park and charge

"For patrons only"...

 

[printf42]

paywall ..
Bloomberg - Are you a robot? (tesla-manufacturing-executive-bruggeman-to-exit-company)

I don’t need to click to know there’s yet another TSLAQ promotion, as a previously unknown person would suddenly become known as the most important person for such and such products/projects, as soon as they decided to leave.
But this doesn’t work anymore, don’t know why they are still trying.

 

[HG Wells]

I cannot imagine a Tesla owner willingly going back to a bmw unless there is force involved.

Well, If you worked at BMW I could understand having a second car to drive to work but not give up the model 3 for weekends.

 

[SarahsDad]

Same ValueWalk writer - 2 hours ago: There is something irrational going on with Tesla’s stock right now - ValueWalk

Not sure I'd believe anything this guy says, capitulated or not, based on his article back in May, where he couldn't have been more wrong.

Tesla The Next Enron? Here Are A Few Striking Parallels - ValueWalk

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Public charging networks are a jungle. I agree there's lots out there, but good luck with finding the ones that work, or are in use, iced or for which you have an account.

Some say moats aren't a real advantage, the Tesla Supercharger network is a massive moat and an huge competitive lead.

I would agree that dealership Chademo/CCS are flakey at best. Our local Chevy dealer has a CCS that

1. Can only be accessed during business hours
2. Only by customers of the dealership
3. Only by permission and escort.

Nissan dealers have been generally pretty good for us.

However, the main providers like ChargePoint, EVgo, BC hydro, Flo etc have been reliable for us. And you can see wether they are busy with their App or Plug share. Payment has never been a problem. They also outnumber Tesla Supercharger locations 10 to 1 in BC. although Superchargers have more “handles” per location.

Anyway. Supercharger network still rules for main route travel. But I don’t think the Supercharfer advantage is not as great as maybe 3 years ago.

Jmho.

 

[HG Wells]

Any more word (or rumors) on CCS adapter for the US ? The european union one is $190 but wrong connector for here.

 

[ZeApelido]

Interesting considering we have a video that has someone claim to know someone in the EAP that already has it... Or maybe it is already with EAP users and they are fixing things that they reported.

But rolling out tonight could be good for TSLA tomorrow...

Remember that some Tesla employees have been running FSD on HW3 for about a year.

 

[Curt Renz]

Opricot has calculated TSLA MaxPain for options expiring December 27th to be $380. This is the supposed share price at which the greatest number of option owners would be shut out, and option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) would be able to keep the largest amount of their premiums. Option writers sometimes appear to attempt to manipulate the share price on Fridays to the MaxPain level.

Opricot: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

The MaxPain calculation is based on option open interest at the most recent market closing. It actually varies throughout a trading session.

However, there is a potential flaw in the methodology for calculating MaxPain. The posted MaxPain has been ridiculously low during the recent TSLA price run-up. This is undoubtedly because of all the put options still held for strikes far below the current share price. This would likely lead to an unusually large number of puts expiring worthless. That could skew the calculated MaxPain much lower than what would realistically be a target for the option writers.