I will probably do the same if I am in the same situation as you. Thanks for the reminder and it does affect my decision I think. Have a great holiday!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that the amount of unrecognized FSD revenue continues to build up as more cars are sold with FSD (minus any amounts recognized each quarter). It wouldn't surprise me if it was building up faster than it's being recognized. We will have to wait until 4Q results are released to know for sure. If the amount recognized is very high the shorts will probably accuse Tesla of recognizing the revenue too quickly for the sole purpose of burning them. They will probably lose any such claim if they try to take it to court.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's an unknown. The share price could continue to rise faster than the underlying rate of decay.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Good thought -- I had forgotten about them.
They certainly have cash, a desire to diversify holdings, and past interest in TSLA.
The Norwegian Sovereign fund would be another candidate for similar reasons and it has cash related to exit from unacceptable stocks.
sundaymorning
Active Member
The short squeeze in 2013 that took us from $30 to $180 took about 4-5 months (if I recalled correctly). During that time we also had around 25-28 million shares shorted; which is quite similar to the current situation.... With every $2-3 gains, new shorts pilled in, which then caused the squeeze to extend itself even longer. During 2013 we saw something like a 6 banger, if the squeeze today, which started at $250s turned out to be the same 6 banger, then that would mean a SP of $1,500 within a 4-5 month period from October 2019.
My question is does Tesla future outlook have enough tailwind to push us that far by mid year 2020? Will Model Y and S&P catalyst give us enough to get the stock that high? I would not count on it, but if shorts keep piling in and spend money they don’t have (shorting on margins excessively like 2013) then every $5-10 move would mean many will be forced to cover.
If the SP kept rising to above $1k per share it doesn’t necessarily mean TSLA and Tesla deserves that valuation, it just means shorters are making a big mistake by buying on margins all at once. Shorts will tell themselves “there’s no way Tesla is worth such and such price” so then they short 1,000 shares, 5,000 shares or 100,000 shares like the guy who lost $2 million (true story)... this is a common mistake that shorters make, they don’t short 100 shares like the average buyer, they’re shorting big in hopes of hitting a grand slam (it’s a gamblers bad bet and this is in a way just like gambling); this in turn makes them expose to every little Tesla movement, every positive news, every leaked email.
If I recalled correctly in 2013, Elon also had new announcements every 2-3 days of some revolutionary idea for 1-2 weeks (like leasing, etc.), although he’s not currently pumping the stock like 2013, Tesla as a company is accomplishing feats that are much more noticeable, measurable and impressive than 2013. On the horizon, we have feature ready FSD release, Q4 record deliveries, cash flow positive, 2020 deliveries outlook of 500,000 or more cars, battery investor day, Model Y, Shanghai/Berlin, Chinese loans...(all within the next 6 months). Knowing that all these goodies are lined up, anyone of us honestly selling now or within the next 30 days? If so, please let us know your reasons. I think a good starting point for us bulls or for me at least, is to hold till delivery numbers, then wait and see. After that, wait till earnings CC then wait and see, then battery day (wait and see)... if this “wait and see” pattern continues and we hold, then current shorters will be crushed.
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I believe there is a single actor buying the majority of shares/dictating the price at the moment. That would explain that we had like 9 days in succession with the price alternating between going up and down, every single day. I don't think that's an accident.
ARAMCO went IPO on December 11th. The stock price has risen approx. $7.5 per trading day on average since December 11th.
The Saudis have a history of buy $TSLA, and I assume of agreeing to buy shares at $420.
Is it plausible ARAMCO uses the money from the IPO to buy $TSLA?
ARAMCO went IPO on December 11th. The stock price has risen approx. $7.5 per trading day on average since December 11th.
The Saudis have a history of buy $TSLA, and I assume of agreeing to buy shares at $420.
Is it plausible ARAMCO uses the money from the IPO to buy $TSLA?
Even if SP is $4204.20 (double 420) by the end of the week, I'm not selling a single share. I'd probably buy one to celebrate again
When we reach $10,000 wake me up and I'll start thinking about trimming down my position.
Of all the wild accusations of fraud the shorts have made, have any of them actually taken it to court?
If yes, what was the outcome if already known?
It's 11:30, Xmas morning, I'm still in bed. My wife "what are you doing", me, "wait, I'm photoshopping, it's important"...
Dah daaaa!
Dah daaaa!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
That $10K/sh would result in about a $1.75T market cap for TSLA, which is approx. right for when we hit 2 TWh/yr bty production (2027ish?). Imma call it $2T by 2028.
That's about where Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Amazon will be in 5-7 yrs, but that's only ~1 doubling in 7 yrs for them, so old, stodgey & slow...
TSLA overtakes XOM ($300B) in just 3-4 yrs @ a 50% CAGR. So the question is, when does TSLA overtake MAGA? Those 4 obviously have orders of magnitude smaller total addressable markets, so its not obvious where their continued growth comes from. TSLA however, well sky's the limit, wot?
TSLA share buy-back program? Starlink alliance? Space-X merger? Boring Co asteroid mining? Musk Industries gets even bigger in the 2030s, folks, just in time to fund Elon's city on Mars.
Who's ready for the future? It'll be here shortly and it'll be called X.com with a market cap over $10T reached sometime in the 2030s, with Elon owning about $5T of that, ISYN.
Good on ya' mate, when do we board Starship bound for Mars?
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Informative twitter thread by Sparks/GF1 'outsider' Carsonight:
TL;dr If his infomation is accurate, GF1 now has ~36 GWh/yr installed capacity (13 lines capable of 400K cells/line/day).
Njoy!
Carsonight 14 hours ago
[End of Twitter Thread]
TL;dr If his infomation is accurate, GF1 now has ~36 GWh/yr installed capacity (13 lines capable of 400K cells/line/day).
Njoy!
Carsonight 14 hours ago
I've saw a string of tweets concerning Tesla and Panasonic at GF1. I have followed this up close, with friends and family working on both sides. Some of these people I have known since they were infants, and most of what I know comes from listening to them talk shop.
Pana and Tesla had growing pains. But the majority were Tesla's according to Tesla's own SEC filing. Tsla mentions problems with its responsibilities more than Pana's issues.
Panasonic began trial runs in February with their new machinery. There were 4 lines of 14 machine each than, and each line had a theoretical capacity of ~300k cells per day. Initial cell production was powerwalls in Hawaii and Somoa, if I remember right. In June all production...
...was switched to cells for cars, which is why the cells for Hornsdale came from Samsung. There was tittering then about a break in the relationship with Tesla and Panasonic, but this was all planned. By fall 2017 it was clear something was wrong. The cells Panasonic was...
...producing were piling up by the millions, filling than empty spaces in GF1. The third party (I've heard described as Rube Goldberg) machinery Tesla installed to turn cells into batteries was malfunctioning. By winter 2017 Panasonic was lending their own employees to Tesla...
...to help sort things out. When not enough volunteered they were "voluntold". Tesla was in breach of contract and Panasonic could have walked, but instead they acted more like a real partner. Tesla went on a hiring spree and used brute force to overcome the shortcomings of the..
...third party machinery. Meanwhile Tesla tapped the German engineering firm Grohmann, whom Tesla had aquired the previous year, to create a fix. This they did, with a series of machines referred to as the Grohmann line.
By late spring/early summer 2018 Tesla outpaced the...
...Panasonic production, catching them flat footed. Panasonic responded in 2 ways, by installing more lines and, beginning around September 2018, installing lines capable of 400k cells per day. These were the last 3 of 13 lines. By early 2019 Panasonic was in process of...
...retrofitting the first 10 lines to bring them up to speed. Panasonic now has 13 lines capable of production in excess of 5 million cells per day.
Meantime on the Tesla side, I am told the second Grohmann line is going in, each line capable of a battery every 90 seconds...
...and using far less manpower. Headcount was reduced by attrition and by reassigning employees to other areas. Tesla is now in full hiring mode again; one of the people going through the process is my little grand daughter's mother.
As to capacities, I've seen a lot of numbers..
...bandied about. The numbers I accept as accurate are these:
When GF1 is finished, Panasonic has been telling employees there will be 77 lines of cell machines, with a 78th for training. Planned capacity back in 2017 was thus 150 GWh of cells per year, which checks if you...
...do the math. With the current cell lines GF1 will have 200 GWh of cells per year, if and when GF1 is finished. There lies a rub.
Reno is labor constrained like you wouldn't believe. Nobody, but nobody, saw what the local press call the Tesla effect, the flood of businesses...
...that poured into the area just because Tesla was here. Both Tesla and Panasonic are struggling to fill posi8even though they have some of the best salary and benefits in the area. Tesla is wise to source cells elsewhere.
I've been listening to stories of a rift between Tesla..
...and Panasonic as long as they have been here; after all, it is the shawties favorite dream and I grow tired of chasing such rumors down.. All I can say is that both Tesla and Panasonic have made it clear from the start that their's is not an exclusive relationship, that...
...neither company wants to be exclusively dependent on the other. That said, when the chips were down Panasonic acted more as a partner than a supplier, even though they have a lease on their area and could have made battery cells for anyone else, and this should be remembered.
All of the above was off the top of my head, and I did not bother digging up exact dates. I missed interesting details also, like Tesla switching 2 lines to Powerwalls for Puerto Rico following the hurricane. Now that I have off my chest I'm going to lay down and take a nap,...
...one of the privileges of being retired.
Pana and Tesla had growing pains. But the majority were Tesla's according to Tesla's own SEC filing. Tsla mentions problems with its responsibilities more than Pana's issues.
Panasonic began trial runs in February with their new machinery. There were 4 lines of 14 machine each than, and each line had a theoretical capacity of ~300k cells per day. Initial cell production was powerwalls in Hawaii and Somoa, if I remember right. In June all production...
...was switched to cells for cars, which is why the cells for Hornsdale came from Samsung. There was tittering then about a break in the relationship with Tesla and Panasonic, but this was all planned. By fall 2017 it was clear something was wrong. The cells Panasonic was...
...producing were piling up by the millions, filling than empty spaces in GF1. The third party (I've heard described as Rube Goldberg) machinery Tesla installed to turn cells into batteries was malfunctioning. By winter 2017 Panasonic was lending their own employees to Tesla...
...to help sort things out. When not enough volunteered they were "voluntold". Tesla was in breach of contract and Panasonic could have walked, but instead they acted more like a real partner. Tesla went on a hiring spree and used brute force to overcome the shortcomings of the..
...third party machinery. Meanwhile Tesla tapped the German engineering firm Grohmann, whom Tesla had aquired the previous year, to create a fix. This they did, with a series of machines referred to as the Grohmann line.
By late spring/early summer 2018 Tesla outpaced the...
...Panasonic production, catching them flat footed. Panasonic responded in 2 ways, by installing more lines and, beginning around September 2018, installing lines capable of 400k cells per day. These were the last 3 of 13 lines. By early 2019 Panasonic was in process of...
...retrofitting the first 10 lines to bring them up to speed. Panasonic now has 13 lines capable of production in excess of 5 million cells per day.
Meantime on the Tesla side, I am told the second Grohmann line is going in, each line capable of a battery every 90 seconds...
...and using far less manpower. Headcount was reduced by attrition and by reassigning employees to other areas. Tesla is now in full hiring mode again; one of the people going through the process is my little grand daughter's mother.
As to capacities, I've seen a lot of numbers..
...bandied about. The numbers I accept as accurate are these:
When GF1 is finished, Panasonic has been telling employees there will be 77 lines of cell machines, with a 78th for training. Planned capacity back in 2017 was thus 150 GWh of cells per year, which checks if you...
...do the math. With the current cell lines GF1 will have 200 GWh of cells per year, if and when GF1 is finished. There lies a rub.
Reno is labor constrained like you wouldn't believe. Nobody, but nobody, saw what the local press call the Tesla effect, the flood of businesses...
...that poured into the area just because Tesla was here. Both Tesla and Panasonic are struggling to fill posi8even though they have some of the best salary and benefits in the area. Tesla is wise to source cells elsewhere.
I've been listening to stories of a rift between Tesla..
...and Panasonic as long as they have been here; after all, it is the shawties favorite dream and I grow tired of chasing such rumors down.. All I can say is that both Tesla and Panasonic have made it clear from the start that their's is not an exclusive relationship, that...
...neither company wants to be exclusively dependent on the other. That said, when the chips were down Panasonic acted more as a partner than a supplier, even though they have a lease on their area and could have made battery cells for anyone else, and this should be remembered.
All of the above was off the top of my head, and I did not bother digging up exact dates. I missed interesting details also, like Tesla switching 2 lines to Powerwalls for Puerto Rico following the hurricane. Now that I have off my chest I'm going to lay down and take a nap,...
...one of the privileges of being retired.
[End of Twitter Thread]
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Krugerrand
Meow
I must have not been clear before about the purpose of my private island. Nobody is invited. Ever. I won’t even be accepting shipwrecked people. Go to @KarenRei ‘s island, she actually wants people to party with her and she bakes. Win - win.
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mars_or_bust
Member
I invited several people to mine and frankly regretted all of them, including relatives. By analogy, I do not lend my Tesla either.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
Well, that's a cat for you. I had one that had had enough of my shenanigans and tackled me from behind, digging his claws into my calf to bring me down like the big meat animal that I am.
We may love cats and they may purr and all that, but at the end of the day they are not social animals -- they are solitary predators. To them, we're just future meals.
My understanding is there isn't a shortage people wanting to work there, but no housing is available for people who wish to relocate.Similar threads
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