Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Long call calculator: Purchase call options

Thanks, I'd totally forgotten about that site! Very good of helping when to decide to bail-out!

Of course when you do the calculation, it caps the share price at the option figure, which in this case guys a maximum return of roughly 100x, but the SP could go higher, in theory...

 

[SpaceCash]

Thanks, I'd totally forgotten about that site! Very good of helping when to decide to bail-out!

Of course when you do the calculation, it caps the share price at the option figure, which in this case guys a maximum return of roughly 100x, but the SP could go higher, in theory...

View attachment 493302

You can loosen the parameters to display well above your strike price

Click "more output options" and input your desired range

 

[Sancho]

China’s level of execution has been unreal. Clear goals by China, Tesla, and Elon Musk have cleared the way for this.

Hopefully Germany takes note. Europe scares me.

GF3 construction has set a bar. If it takes significantly longer to build GF4, it will make Germany look bad.

There’s going to be a lot of German pride on the line in 2020 to transform that forest into a factory.

 

[dakh]

.

How much percentage did the options take in your portfolios before and after the recent converting to shares? If you don’t mind. Thanks!

Not sure how the absolute numbers are relevant. Basically I did the math of this kind: Financial independence/retirement (love my job so not sure if I quit if it materializes) is about X dollars (using the typical multiply yearly cash out by 25 rule). Let's say I bet on 4x appreciation of TSLA long term (5-10 years) and my other investments don't go anywhere. I think that is conservative if we take macros out of the equation and maybe realistic if we don't. So I need to come up with X/4 worth of TSLA stock playing with options or adding cash before I can go passive and just let it all play out. That is of course if I get to the target number of shares without TSLA having to go way up first, it'll have to go 4x from the time I am fully deleveraged. So I tweak my options exposure based on price action and how far I am from my TSLA share goal. Plus I got a 401k account and after tax account so it's different in those two, I shoot to take less risk with 401k and just plain have more cash there. Actual numbers, approximately it was a bit more than half options vs stock, and now it's getting towards 1/3rd options. If there's a big irrational drop in TSLA I'm ready to leverage back up for a bit But would definitely prefer an orderly deleverage to straight stock and just letting it ride.

 

[Fact Checking]

GF3 construction has set a bar. If it takes significantly longer to build GF4, it will make Germany look bad.

There’s going to be a lot of German pride on the line in 2020 to transform that forest into a factory.

Note that it's not really a "natural forest" but more of a "tree farm" specifically grown for commercial logging purposes: the densely planted trees have very low biodiversity, are the same age, same height and were planted along straight lines and geometrical patterns to ease logging operations:

This area was logged before:

The 3x new forest area Tesla committed to will be a proper forest I believe.

 

[Sancho]

.


Not sure how the absolute numbers are relevant. Basically I did the math of this kind: Financial independence/retirement (love my job so not sure if I quit if it materializes) is about X dollars (using the typical multiply yearly cash out by 25 rule). Let's say I bet on 4x appreciation of TSLA long term (5-10 years) and my other investments don't go anywhere. I think that is conservative if we take macros out of the equation and maybe realistic if we don't. So I need to come up with X/4 worth of TSLA stock playing with options or adding cash before I can go passive and just let it all play out. That is of course if I get to the target number of shares without TSLA having to go way up first, it'll have to go 4x from the time I am fully deleveraged. So I tweak my options exposure based on price action and how far I am from my TSLA share goal. Plus I got a 401k account and after tax account so it's different in those two, I shoot to take less risk with 401k and just plain have more cash there. Actual numbers, approximately it was a bit more than half options vs stock, and now it's getting towards 1/3rd options. If there's a big irrational drop in TSLA I'm ready to leverage back up for a bit But would definitely prefer an orderly deleverage to straight stock and just letting it ride.

Especially since you love your job, why deleverage so much, so quickly? It might be a better tradeoff to risk taking a bit longer to achieve financial independence for the possibility of gaining a larger net worth than is needed for financial independence.

Financial independence should be your first goal, but not your only goal. You can make a very large impact in this world if you start building a net worth that exceeds what you need to be comfortable with.

 

[Sancho]

Note that it's not really a "natural forest" but a "tree farm" specifically grown for commercial logging purposes: the densely planted trees have very low biodiversity, are the same age and were planted along straight lines and geometrical patterns to ease logging operations:

View attachment 493303​

This area was logged before:

View attachment 493304​

The 3x new forest area Tesla committed to will be a proper forest I believe.

Hmmm. What kind of margin will Tesla get from this tree harvest?

 

[NakedLong]

Note that it's not really a "natural forest" but a "tree farm" specifically grown for commercial logging purposes: the densely planted trees have very low biodiversity, are the same age and were planted along straight lines and geometrical patterns to ease logging operations:

View attachment 493303​

This area was logged before:

View attachment 493304​

The 3x new forest area Tesla committed to will be a proper forest I believe.

Have you got some source for the 'proper forrest'? On that thought, I was talking to some very knowledgable scientists on the topic of reforestation and CO2 capture. They spent their entire careers studying and implementing these types of programs. They said that the best way to capture CO2 is with peat bogs by such a huge margin. Anything which makes its way into a bog gets permanently captured. Forests on the other hand often get planted, cut down and the CO2 re-released into the atmosphere. And if it does not get cut down it still only has a fraction of the CO2 capture ability of a bog.

 

[dakh]

Especially since you love your job, why deleverage so much, so quickly? It might be a better tradeoff to risk taking a bit longer to achieve financial independence for the possibility of gaining a larger net worth than is needed for financial independence.

Financial independence should be your first goal, but not your only goal. You can make a very large impact in this world if you start building a net worth that exceeds what you need to be comfortable with.

Thanks for the encouragement! I do have my reasons:

1. It takes time to manage a leveraged account and I'll admit it's a good challenge sometimes, but there are plenty of other things I'd rather do
2. I'm of the opinion that it is either just the physics of it or my lack of skill, but I expect that if I use a lot of leverage for long periods of time, I will eventually get caught out and lose the ability to continue. Mostly due to luck I dodged most bullets so far but it could have easily gone way wrong.
3. I'm not that young, maybe I'll have another shot but I'd rather just use this one

 

[Boomer19]

I can't buy leaps. Have limited option choices available. Maybe need to re-apply with broker for more choices.

what broker only gives you access to certain contracts?

 

[Boomer19]

Maybe those of us who are swimming in huge TSLA option profits (realized or not) need our own thread to gloat over our profits! LOL!

I still have really high hopes for my Jan. 2021 $690 calls even though they are already up over 19 fold. And my Jan 2020 $320 calls have gone up over 4 fold. I haven't sold a single one yet!

we started a trading forum. it’s not as busy, but there’s still ~40 pages or so
trading

 

[Fact Checking]

Have you got some source for the 'proper forrest'?

Saw a reference to it from one of the Brandenburg politicians, that the choice of the 3x area will be part of the state's reforestation efforts, and will be done on multiple sites.

In Germany most state level environmental projects are top notch, especially in Brandenburg where the Green Party is member of the coalition government.

Here's a local article I found about Germany's and Brandenburg's reforestation efforts (Google translated):

Brandenburg pflanzt zwölf Millionen Bäume

"The state of Brandenburg planted twelve million trees in the particularly dry year of 2018. In total, more than 2,000 hectares of forest have been rejuvenated, as the Ministry of Agriculture announced on Thursday in Potsdam. But the goal is not just to rejuvenate the forest."

"After the devastating forest fires of 2018, Brandenburg is also using reforestation to reduce the proportion of pine trees in its forests and to plant more deciduous trees. "

"Brandenburg's state government has carried out forest conversion on an area the size of Berlin in recent decades, the ministry said. That would correspond to 510 million plants used. Potsdam currently has 20 million euros available for forest regeneration, which could be used to plant 30 million plants, the ministry says."​

As a comparison: the GF4 area hosts roughly 1 million low grade pine trees (which is not the dominant native tree species) on a ~100 hectares area. Pine forests are being replaced statewide anyway, due to the high wildfire risk.

The cost to Tesla would be roughly 2 million Euros to plant 3 million trees, if they participated in that reforestation program.

Any CO2 capture is a secondary goal, the primary policy goal of the Brandenburg state government is to not reduce the total forest area in the state (around 33% of all land area), while reducing wildfire risks.

 

[jeewee3000]

Nooooooo! Such slim pickins' on he "trading thread". It almost seems you didn't have my best interest in mind sending me out there out back to root through a forgotten dumpster forum (no disrespect intended to @Boomer19 - I agree with the good intentions). Nothing's even been posted in that forum since we broke 420 4 DAYS AGO. And few useful real information/discussions to speak of compared to this much more up-to-date forum.

While I agree with and much appreciate the warnings about total strangers on this forum, It's the endless speculations about future models, where factories should be placed, 420 posts and BS bantering that makes this forum painful, not trading stories, many of which are relevant.

Two things:

- the fact that nothing has been posted in the trading thread since $420 is due to this exact attitude. Vicious circle.
- my post was not aimed at trading stories, but rather at the typical: I've got THIS position and I'm torn: do I take profits, let it ride or something else? Please tell me internet, I don't know what to do without you! That I cannot stand.

And yes, endless memes and speculation are not my cup of tea either. (I've actually posted similarly against over-speculation in the past)

 

[Boomer19]

I find the options discussions excessive and irresponsible, part of a degenerate gambler mentality. Those with less experience in the markets might take such enthusiasm as motivation to lose a lot of money in lessons (in the time decay of money). Perhaps prudence is in order. Perhaps such discussions belong APART from an investors roundtable, more so in a new strategy area, or a new options area. Playing around with options as many discuss is far different that investing.

It all looks like easy money
This is the internet and one only sees the fresh kill of the moment
The voice of reason and experience gets lost in the popular.

we already started a trading thread for that. new people just have to find it and use it.
trading

 

[Sancho]

Thanks for the encouragement! I do have my reasons:

1. It takes time to manage a leveraged account and I'll admit it's a good challenge sometimes, but there are plenty of other things I'd rather do
2. I'm of the opinion that it is either just the physics of it or my lack of skill, but I expect that if I use a lot of leverage for long periods of time, I will eventually get caught out and lose the ability to continue. Mostly due to luck I dodged most bullets so far but it could have easily gone way wrong.
3. I'm not that young, maybe I'll have another shot but I'd rather just use this one

I want to clarify, that as stated in my previous posts, I’m a big fan of deleveraging when someone succeeds in leveraged investing. It’s only the speed of the deleveraging that is at question, and looking beyond just one goal in building a personal net worth.

As for the time it takes to manage a leveraged investment, if I was doing it efficiently I think I could accomplish that in one hour per week, including scanning this forum for the most pertinent information.

But what fun is efficiency? I spend at least one hour per day reading this forum just for kicks. Sometimes two hours.

You all have become like friends to me. I also have non-virtual friends, but few of them want to talk to me much about Tesla, and when they do, they mostly echo what they read in the MSM. Every one of them thinks I’m out of mind for investing in TSLA. But maybe not so much after this month!

 

[Boomer19]

Seems as if there are a lot of questions and discussion about options, enough so that I'd think the topic deserves it's own thread, which frankly I thought already existed. There should be a stickied options oriented thread.

trading

 

[lklundin]

I just want a show of hands on how many people partially or fully missed the boat lately, might explain some people's moods.

I think things are just about to start getting serious; I can't think of a real reason barring earthshaking macro events for us to drop. The current uptrend is formidable AF

I bought my very first, very small call options during the post-Cybertruck-reveal dip. I wish I had dipped my toes in options a year earlier - I would probably have lost that money and learned more, so that now I would sit on 10 or 100 times bigger contracts. As it is my TSLA is 99% long and 1% call options. That represents about 99% of my investable money, which is about 30% of my personal wealth. I have no loans of any kind, so TSLA could go bankrupt tomorrow and my life would not really change - except that I would probably spend less time on TMC...

PS. The above exclude my retirement funds, which I cannot invest myself.

 

[Boomer19]

Nooooooo! Such slim pickins' on he "trading thread". It almost seems you didn't have my best interest in mind sending me out there out back to root through a forgotten dumpster forum (no disrespect intended to @Boomer19 - I agree with the good intentions). Nothing's even been posted in that forum since we broke 420 4 DAYS AGO. And few useful real information/discussions to speak of compared to this much more up-to-date forum.

While I agree with and much appreciate the warnings about total strangers on this forum, It's the endless speculations about future models, where factories should be placed, 420 posts and BS bantering that makes this forum painful, not trading stories, many of which are relevant.

personally, i haven’t really made many moves. i set myself up to not have to pay much attention during this time period. but i’m enjoying the ride.

 

[jbcarioca]

I believe Neroden became a single-issue investor due to bad local service experience - which special type of anecdotal evidence I believe clouded his judgment.

Too bad he missed this run, his posts on TMC were valuable, and he helped investors see the forest from the trees in darker times.


...

• UK's corporate car incentives might be fully recognized starting in April -

• I fully agree with most of your comments including Neroden, although I might say other things too, but he is certainly missed. I need not agree with someone to learn from the conversation.
• As for the U.K., actually, no. The PIK (payment in Kind) rules change in January. PIK and company car sales have a huge predictable concentration in March every year due to number plate changes. Many leases mature then also, producing a highly predictable concentration of 20-30% of those sales in March, followed by a major lull in April. Further, March, fir the same reason, has a shift upscale in total sales. The PIK cars tend to be seriously upscale because they are tax-advantaged company fringe benefits.
• The true ‘corporate’ market is less strongly concentrated and shifts downscale to more utilitarian vehicles.
• For Tesla-specific context PIK accounts for >50% of cars like MB C-class, BMW 3 series, Audi A4 and above. For that category March shifts to a much higher proportion of sales, as much as 40% of annual sales for some fairly high volume models.
• Virtually everyone is dramatically understating the impact of PIK on Tesla sales specifically. I calculated the most likely impact and shared it with some knowledgeable colleagues who have been in the PIK business.
  
• For reference about the potential impact of PIK on Tesla sales just take a quick look at Norway. There is minimal chance that Tesla can actually deliver enough cars to meet U.K. March demand and probably for the remainder of the year.
• Anybody who has doubt needs to do a little research on PIK history in U.K. and in Europe. With that look about urban access limitations for ICE and Tesla operating costs.
  
• GF4 cannot come soon enough!

 

[Fact Checking]

Hmmm. What kind of margin will Tesla get from this tree harvest?

It's probably a not insubstantial sum, but likely part of the land purchase price.

As for the U.K., actually, no. The PIK (payment in Kind) rules change in January. PIK and company car sales have a huge predictable concentration in March every year due to number plate changes. Many leases mature then also, producing a highly predictable concentration of 20-30% of those sales in March, followed by a major lull in April. Further, March, fir the same reason, has a shift upscale in total sales. The PIK cars tend to be seriously upscale because they are tax-advantaged company fringe benefits.

Thanks for the correction of the timeline.

I'm not sure Tesla will be able to anticipate this with substantially increased RHD unit production in January - if the uptick is in March then they won't be able to react in time. Will UK demand in March be +5k units, or +10k-15k units?

Not sure they'll be able to tell in advance, and having too much inventory with no nearby market for these cars is dangerous too.

GF4 indeed cannot come soon enough.