Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

$438 in Frankfurkt.
This is the taste of short blood.
And I like it!

I think a lot of short are getting automatically called before losses .

A short position started just a few months ago can now have losses over 100%.

Higher price leads to forced covering leads to higher price.

 

[mongo]

Hypothesis:
Along with the sales tax exemption, Tesla needed to close the construction loan before going with the final production step of selling MIC 3s.
Sales tax news may have been waiting for that event to occur.

 

[HG Wells]

It's probably a not insubstantial sum, but likely part of the land purchase price.



Thanks for the correction of the timeline.

I'm not sure Tesla will be able to anticipate this with substantially increased RHD unit production in January - if the uptick is in March then they won't be able to react in time. Will UK demand in March be +5k units, or +10k-15k units?

Not sure they'll be able to tell in advance, and having too much inventory with no nearby market for these cars is dangerous too.

GF4 indeed cannot come soon enough.

Also if Brexit happens will cars sold in the UK result in reduced payments from Fiat ?

 

[lklundin]

If that is a good comparison... co-worker died because a drunk driver swerved across the line. Not really anything he could've done. My wife survived her crash. I went through a tree, the bike stayed in it. My brother can walk at least, but his knees are gone.

People who ride know its a matter of luck -- some can ride their entire life without a single accident, true, but it isn't skill that makes that happen if you actually ride. Sure, there's skill and there are consequences for risk taking behavior. The rider can make it worse. True. But no amount of skill can keep you safe.

Since my childhood my dad has always made some disparaging remark whenever we saw a motorcycle, like how uncomfortable it would be in the poor weather - or that "the organ donor is practicing".

I thus never had any interest in them. I recently learned that when he was young he survived a serious crash on one. Smart man he is.

PS. EU markets are open again after Xmas - with TSLA showing a lot of strength, is above 390 Euro....

 

[lklundin]

Couldn't agree more. As one option-jockey proposed, maybe there should be a separate forum for option and short-term traders. Please make it so. I really don't want to watch the train wreck that's going to happen.

With all the many topics being brought up in this forum, I think short term and options trading of TSLA is one of the more relevant ones.

 

[BenPrice]

My god it’s the perfect storm.

Holding AMZN calls since Monday. They’re gonna be 10 Baggers.

Holding Apple calls since yesterday. They’re gonna be 10 baggers.

Holding Tesla calls since 330, they’re gonna be 40 baggers after today.

My worst week this month is 110%. For the entire portfolio which is 80%+ equity.

Need Elon to start a yacht company.

 

[mad474]

Would anyone like to fund my living for the next few months? Here is the offer:

Thats 15@445 USD. Really cheap, no? Get it! It also suggests that we'll go beyond 450 by December 30th at the latest. You're welcome

Still HODLing a low 3 digit TSLA core stock (and a Cybertruck order of course).

As a newcomer in this great forum (and to the stock exchange as well), I would like to thank everyone. You've made me richer - in wealth and knowledge. Have a successful 2020!

 

[jbcarioca]

I...
I'm not sure Tesla will be able to anticipate this with substantially increased RHD unit production in January - if the uptick is in March then they won't be able to react in time. Will UK demand in March be +5k units, or +10k-15k?

Not sure they'll be able to tell in advance, and having too much inventory with no nearby market for these cars is dangerous too.

Tesla knows PIK and knows the new tax rules also. After all, even without preferential rules Models S and X have been often sold as PIK. Tesla has not had special rules for that, unlike BMW, MB etc but the higher the price the higher proportion is PIK. Jaguar and Range Rover are among the highest PIK sales. However the higher the price the more likely fresh number plates drive volume, so March gets more concentrated as price rises. With zero doubt Tesla knows all about this. Every higher end BEV/PHEV will be selling in the UK. Porsche has been building UK Taycan to arrive from next week and in larger numbers for March. The I-Pace crowd will be seeking salvation since the last best refuge of Jaguar addicts is the M25 belt and adjacent counties. As all the other moves as quickly as they can Tesla is in their usual position, Norway-like, to benefit handsomely. The pricing disadvantage of Tesla prior to GF-4 will not matter since the others are more expensive and mostly less functional.

Strangely Tesla is seemingly exempt from the anti-US, anti-US vehicle sentiment rapidly growing in Europe. GF-4 will help further squash that sentiment even before it opens. For UK and Germany both we are about to see how well Tesla can navigate growing antipathy for the US. Others may know this better than do I. This is one of the potential headwinds we have thus far managed to ignore.

All this concentrates on the March number plate change because that coincides with the first of two PIK rushes during the year, the other one will be in September after we know more the BEV zero effects.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also if Brexit happens will cars sold in the UK result in reduced payments from Fiat ?

The Brexit deal Johnson made with the EU is keeping EU market access and regulations until 2021, as part of the "transition period":

What could Brexit look like by 2021?​

They can (and probably will) extend it by another 12-24 months, trade deals are negotiated slowly. I suppose the ZEV credits will stay intact as well.

Furthermore, a future trade deal between the UK and the EU could include ZEV credits as well.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla knows PIK and knows the new tax rules also. After all, even without preferential rules Models S and X have been often sold as PIK. Tesla has not had special rules for that, unlike BMW, MB etc but the higher the price the higher proportion is PIK. Jaguar and Range Rover are among the highest PIK sales.

That's all true, but this is the first PIK season for the Model 3: different price class, different demography and different rules. I'm not sure Tesla will be able to pin down the magnitude of the spike in PIK demand accurately on the first try, even if they are perfectly aware of everything in advance.

 

[jbcarioca]

My god it’s the perfect storm.

Holding AMZN calls since Monday. They’re gonna be 10 Baggers.

Holding Apple calls since yesterday. They’re gonna be 10 baggers.

Holding Tesla calls since 330, they’re gonna be 40 baggers after today.

My worst week this month is 110%. For the entire portfolio which is 80%+ equity.

Need Elon to start a yacht company.

Yesterday observed the highest volumes stocks and seeing AMZN, AAPL and TSLA at the top, as well as large cap gainers. That trifecta was a spectacular present for my household. Calm is needed because this week is rarely a precursor for anything. Still, all three of those are having unexpected positive results that are not well-correlated with broader economic euphoria.

Woe betide the broader euphoria when they discover the US deficits and see how much the near future is being mortgaged with no payment source nearby. Structurally those three are better positioned to cope with the future, even though both AMZN and AAPL are too large to be unaffected.

Sorry for reminding that this party will end sometime. It's a bad time to take major risks.

 

[jbcarioca]

...
Furthermore, a future trade deal between the UK and the EU could include ZEV credits as well.

I think you're spot on with this. The UK no longer has much domestic auto industry anyway and they're very anxious to reduce greenhouse gasses. I think they're certain to find a way to continue every emmission reduction scheme they can think up. Perhaps the german Greens will be helpful in all that.

They're much more likely to quibble about food and drink, but they'll not mess with ZEV nor Airbus!

those are my firm opinions but I'm neither a European nor a Brit so I probably I haven't a clue.

 

[BenPrice]

Yesterday observed the highest volumes stocks and seeing AMZN, AAPL and TSLA at the top, as well as large cap gainers. That trifecta was a spectacular present for my household. Calm is needed because this week is rarely a precursor for anything. Still, all three of those are having unexpected positive results that are not well-correlated with broader economic euphoria.

Woe betide the broader euphoria when they discover the US deficits and see how much the near future is being mortgaged with no payment source nearby. Structurally those three are better positioned to cope with the future, even though both AMZN and AAPL are too large to be unaffected.

Sorry for reminding that this party will end sometime. It's a bad time to take major risks.

Agree entirely. But put these on your calendar:

AMZN always announces Christmas sales note on the 26th. Maybe they stop next year, but thus far not the case. It’s like a secret that isn’t a secret. I don’t get why more don’t play this. Really solid short term play IMO.

And Tesla is just throttling the auto industry. I work for a different company ran by Elon and if our activities are indicative of the norm, Tesla will continue getting FURTHER ahead of competition. I’ve spent decades in manufacturing - this is just next level and makes everybody seem old fashioned. This is where 80% of my money goes. Right now it’s 50% of my holdings as my options have ballooned.

And Apple is what happens when you get that far ahead - Tesla will join Apple’s status soon enough - especially when Tesla Energy Ramps and rounds out the cyclical automotive operations.

I expect a shocking downturn at some point, but I’m taking all the cash I can until then!

 

[AlMc]

Agree entirely. But put these on your calendar:

AMZN always announces Christmas sales note on the 26th. Maybe they stop next year, but thus far not the case. It’s like a secret that isn’t a secret. I don’t get why more don’t play this. Really solid short term play IMO.

And Tesla is just throttling the auto industry. I work for a different company ran by Elon and if our activities are indicative of the norm, Tesla will continue getting FURTHER ahead of competition. I’ve spent decades in manufacturing - this is just next level and makes everybody seem old fashioned. This is where 80% of my money goes. Right now it’s 50% of my holdings as my options have ballooned.

And Apple is what happens when you get that far ahead - Tesla will join Apple’s status soon enough - especially when Tesla Energy Ramps and rounds out the cyclical automotive operations.

I expect a shocking downturn at some point, but I’m taking all the cash I can until then!

Curious why you expect a shocking downturn when you are working at an EM company, see Tesla throttling OEMs and seeing TE rounding out cyclical automotive sales? In what time frame do you see this downturn coming? Thanks

 

[Hock1]

With all the many topics being brought up in this forum, I think short term and options trading of TSLA is one of the more relevant ones.

That may be so. But, since this is the "Tesla and the Investment World" forum, it may make more sense to have a separate forum for options and trading. JMO

 

[Artful Dodger]

156,829 shares of TSLA traded in the Pre-market as of 08:15 ET

$436.20 +5.26 +1.22%
Real-Time - data as of 12/27/2019 8:21:50 AM

 

[BenPrice]

Curious why you expect a shocking downturn when you are working at an EM company, see Tesla throttling OEMs and seeing TE rounding out cyclical automotive sales? In what time frame do you see this downturn coming? Thanks

Macro related due to inflationary or geopolitical concerns.

Call it a market “correction”.

Just feel that’s inevitable - as it always is.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Macro related due to inflationary or geopolitical concerns.

Call it a market “correction”.

Just feel that’s inevitable - as it always is.

Yes it is and in retrospect will have seemed obvious but not at the start.

 

[SpaceCash]

Can all you big brains making vague predictions about an eventual correction just enjoy the run first?

Sheesh

 

[elasalle]

Why would they start deliveries - and the relevant amortisation expense - with one day left in the quarter? It just doesn't make any sense to ding the quarterly margins that way. This is especially true now that Tesla has secured a new loan in China so that production assets can be financed and not lead to a poor cash position.

They must either have a blowout quarter secured, or have some other contractual obligation that is favourable to deliver this year.

Could the deliveries to employees be in another financial bucket - so that amortisation/depreciation is still not counted in Q4?