trading

[defc0n]

Why wouldn't you think we're at the black circle instead? We've just broken into a new trading range. The point you've noted is after a deep run into the new range. We've just gotten started.

View attachment 490644

the upcoming holiday low volume potential shenanigans does worry me some. I’m just looking out for any possible local top, and reasons that could influence it to be.

On the other hand, we have q4 delivery numbers coming out soon after that.

macros also seem way too hot to me right now.

just taking a small breather and a wait and see approach again after solid gains.

 

[defc0n]

haha $420 resistance is actually here and a thing

 

[defc0n]

Bought my first ever options today (long calls for ALB and WORK). Let’s see how bad I fail on those.

Have one share of TSLA at $420.69 . Actually do think it has a decent shot of a drop from here though. Short macros still as well.

If it’s looking like I’m wrong on that I’ll be willing to change my mind and try to benefit from a run up to $500 or something. Lot of exuberance out there which is making me skeptical, but timing a top is hard.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Bought my first ever options today (long calls for ALB and WORK). Let’s see how bad I fail on those.

Have one share of TSLA at $420.69 . Actually do think it has a decent shot of a drop from here though. Short macros still as well.

If it’s looking like I’m wrong on that I’ll be willing to change my mind and try to benefit from a run up to $500 or something. Lot of exuberance out there which is making me skeptical, but timing a top is hard.

I wouldn’t be surprised by a drop to the $380s on bad news, but we have to get some first.

 

[defc0n]

With it broken through $420 resistance I’m now bullish again...

 

[UncaNed]

I think there is a decent chance TSLA hits an ATH over the next 6 weeks or so. I think this is likely because some funds are going to add soon (or continue adding.) I think nearly everything is lining up for Tesla to take off in terms of demand, production, balance sheet, sentiment, and S&P addition next year. It's even more bullish to me that a lot of bulls don't think the stock is quite ready to take off yet. I only got one March $420 bought last week on a dip. I was hoping to buy some more on morning dips this week but they aren't happening!

This certainly aged well!

 

[jeewee3000]

I wouldn’t be surprised by a drop to the $380s on bad news, but we have to get some first.

I actually think the stock will drop upon release of the P&D report. Basically the record deliveries (I think those are a given) are already priced in, and shorts will claim they're priced in too much.

If said drop should happen, I'll be watching like a hawk where the bottom is. Not necessarily to open a position but to gauge current SP sentiment.

 

[Boomer19]

what are @bdy0627 and @Zhelko Dimic thinking this far into the run up?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

what are @bdy0627 and @Zhelko Dimic thinking this far into the run up?

I'd hold, except...

I've sold some (I'm now 75%TSLA, down from 90%), and will sell some more as I try to lock in weak $CAD and weak Canadian dividend stocks, as I consider early retirement; but otherwise, I wouldn't sell anything. I'm more bullish on TSLA now, than ever since SCTY announcement in 2016. Will keep my portfolio at least 50% in TSLA, wife is still 90%, kids are 100%

Any pullback will be temporary, IMHO

 

[bdy0627]

I'd hold, except...

I've sold some (I'm now 75%TSLA, down from 90%), and will sell some more as I try to lock in weak $CAD and weak Canadian dividend stocks, as I consider early retirement; but otherwise, I wouldn't sell anything. I'm more bullish on TSLA now, than ever since SCTY announcement in 2016. Will keep my portfolio at least 50% in TSLA, wife is still 90%, kids are 100%

Any pullback will be temporary, IMHO

I continue to be very bullish, though the stock has run pretty hard for months now. A pullback and retest of the breakout seems very possible. That could happen with P&D numbers not being impressive enough. It could also happen with a general market pullback. On the other hand, if the P&D numbers are impressive then the stock could certainly resume it's rapid climb very quickly. I am anticipating $480+ in the near term, primarily based on some similarities of this climb with 2017 and even 2013 to some extent. I'm trying to be patient with my calls and continue to hold them. If we drop below $400 then I think we will get that retest pretty quickly. I would be adding leverage there.

 

[EVNow]

Anyone playing P&D with options ?

I have been thinking about buying 430 calls and 410 puts. Needs $20 move make any money - so won't. I think a $20 dip is quite possible if they don't make 360k total this year - but not a $20 bump if they deliver < 110k.

 

[mongo]

um, yes
probably badly
have one call, not a Jan 3rd though
currently light red

 

[Boomer19]

@EVNow
@mongo

i’m not “playing” p&d per se

but i’ve been holding mar300c for a while and have been struggling with dumping or keeping. i bought a few jan400p last week (which are slightly black - should’ve dumped them at open yesterday for a couple k profit)

but, after that it’s jan21 and june21 300 and 280, so those i’m not worried about for now.

i wanted to get out of the daily anxiety of nearer term so i rolled nov into march, but lately it’s been time to pay close attention to those. the way i see it, even if we go back to 325 i’m still even on the march’s
so it may be a lost opportunity but it may not.

i really hate to have the tax year decide a trade, but admittedly it was a factor in not dumping the march’s in 2019, along with p&d being good. but i didn’t expect 400s either, so maybe even really good p&d will drop it below 4

if so, hopefully march is enough time to see it come back to 420-430.

let’s hope for best. it’s all gravy either way unless cowen is right. then it’s back the grind

best of luck

 

[FrankSG]

Has anyone looked into NIO? They just surged big time on a marginally better, but still very bad quarter.

They don't have enough money left to last another 3 months and need urgent financing. On top of that, MiC Model 3 is launching right now, and Q1 is usually seasonally weaker in the automotive sector.

I'm considering buy some put options for Feb and/or May.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Long some short term calls that I got at a discount during the last days.
I think we coud get a small surprise to the upside with the Q4 P&D report (expecting about 105K deliveries, production numbers will be interesting to see where Tesla is heading next, any additional information about guidance would be icing on the cake).
As some big and influencial shorts exited their positions I coud imagine interest to push SP down is smaller compared to recent reports.

 

[FrankSG]

Has anyone looked into NIO? They just surged big time on a marginally better, but still very bad quarter.

They don't have enough money left to last another 3 months and need urgent financing. On top of that, MiC Model 3 is launching right now, and Q1 is usually seasonally weaker in the automotive sector.

I'm considering buy some put options for Feb and/or May.

I just found out that the results they released a few days ago were Q3's results? What company reports their Q3 in last few days of Q4...

Anyway, I think I'll probably just be lazy and keep my money in TSLA, but I'm very pessimistic in NIO's prospects in the next few months.

 

[Cherry Wine]

As long as the IV doesn’t get too outrageous, tomorrow’s weekly options expiry opens up some interesting possibilities for trading the P&D report. Anyone opening up some positions?

 

[defc0n]

I just found out that the results they released a few days ago were Q3's results? What company reports their Q3 in last few days of Q4...

Anyway, I think I'll probably just be lazy and keep my money in TSLA, but I'm very pessimistic in NIO's prospects in the next few months.

I’d be surprised if they couldn’t raise cash.

 

[EVNow]

430/440 Call is now at 66% IV. Similar with 420/410 Put.

I expect the IV to drop to about 40% very quickly tomorrow.

 

[Cherry Wine]

430/440 Call is now at 66% IV. Similar with 420/410 Put.

I expect the IV to drop to about 40% very quickly tomorrow.

IV in the 60% range might be underpricing volatility given the ability of P&D to move the stock, don't you think? I'm considering opening a small straddle position.