Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Nooooooo! Such slim pickins' on he "trading thread". It almost seems you didn't have my best interest in mind sending me out there out back to root through a forgotten dumpster forum (no disrespect intended to @Boomer19 - I agree with the good intentions). Nothing's even been posted in that forum since we broke 420 4 DAYS AGO. And few useful real information/discussions to speak of compared to this much more up-to-date forum.

While I agree with and much appreciate the warnings about total strangers on this forum, It's the endless speculations about future models, where factories should be placed, 420 posts and BS bantering that makes this forum painful, not trading stories, many of which are relevant.

I used to read Quora,Medium articles...but I find this one forum much more entertaining these day's.
Up at 6am read till market opens then check in several times a day...

 

[elasalle]

Did not think red was possible with China news today. I expect this to be short lived, shorts wanted to reposition themselves at 435 because they’re dumb, but some profit gathering before the new year. This thing should shoot back up shortly.

Looks like someone doing delivery math. With no China Deliveries, how does Tesla hit 105K ...

(+ personally I think they will ...)

 

[Tslynk67]

bought some short term calls, and this thing stops moving lol

Normal service will be resumed shortly...

 

[StealthP3D]

Did not think red was possible with China news today. I expect this to be short lived, shorts wanted to reposition themselves at 435 because they’re dumb, but some profit gathering before the new year. This thing should shoot back up shortly.

I'm actually hoping to see a red day before the last day of the year. Red days are necessary on extended runs and the sooner we get one or two, the shallower the first real correction will be.

The reason I want the first correction to be as shallow as possible is it reduces the opportunity for shorts to cover at a lower price en-masse. And avoiding that supports the on-going rally. But we may still have too much buying pressure to get a red day. Still, today or Monday (or both) would be optimal for that sort of thing.

 

[UncaNed]

I'm actually hoping to see a red day before the last day of the year. Red days are necessary on extended runs and the sooner we get one or two, the shallower the first real correction will be.

The reason I want the first correction to be as shallow as possible is it reduces the opportunity for shorts to cover at a lower price en-masse. And avoiding that supports the on-going rally. But we may still have too much buying pressure to get a red day. Still, today or Monday (or both) would be optimal for that sort of thing.

I just gotta say... You'd have a lot more credibility if you'd said that BEFORE the SP dropped $10.

It's OK though. I whistle every time I stroll through a graveyard at night too.

EDIT-
AH! We're following the Macros maybe...

That makes me feel a little better.

 

[Bunky]

What is this strange non-green color?

 

[wipster]

bought some short term calls, and this thing stops moving lol

So you're the one!

LOL!

 

[shootformoon]

I always have this UK corporate car incentive question. We know starting april.1 there is a yearly tax incentive. Does this apply to car bought on Jan, 2020? For example, for a car bought on Jan,1. The first three month uses old tax rate. But starting april,1, will this car enjoy the reduced tax rate?

I believe Neroden became a single-issue investor due to bad local service experience - which special type of anecdotal evidence I believe clouded his judgment.

Too bad he missed this run, his posts on TMC were valuable, and he helped investors see the forest from the trees in darker times.



As I see them:

• Q1 auto sales are seasonally weaker in the northern hemisphere.
• Netherlands pulled a lot of Q1 demand to Q4 - possibly several months worth of.
• German EV sales are still depressed due to VW and German government shenanigans, and it's unclear exactly when they'd announce the new incentives.
• China Model 3 sales will be GF3 heavy, which might depress demand for Fremont made units.
• UK's corporate car incentives might be fully recognized starting in April - not Q1.
• California state incentives were cut in December.
• End of U.S. tax credit of $1,875 probably pulled 4-5 weeks of Q1 U.S. demand for SR+ to Q4. Effect on AWD/P should be 3-4 weeks, on S/X, ~2 weeks.

Maybe Korea will make up for it, and maybe Model Y will be accelerated, but right now it looks probable that Fremont will be under-utilized in Q1, which drop even ramping GF3 production might not keep up with.

On the plus side GF3 ramp-up might be a glorious highlight of Q1, year-over-year comparisons might still be favorable, and if Tesla can post marginal profits in Q1 then they'll probably meet the 12 months profitability S&P 500 inclusion criterion.

 

[StealthP3D]

I just gotta say... You'd have a lot more credibility if you'd said that BEFORE the SP dropped $10.

Actually I started typing that before we dropped significantly below yesterday's close. It was only after I posted it and looked at a chart that I saw the big drop. And I wasn't predicting a red day, I was hoping for one. Big difference that apparently passed by you.

Also, I don't feel like I need credibility here, I'm not here to gain anything other than insight as to how other investors are thinking about Tesla.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm sticking by my prediction of close at just under 436. I have 2 calls expiring today and my plan is to sell them when we get back to 435.

Steady as she goes. They are taking a successful page from MSFT's (and many other top-flight companies) playbook. Even though it might seem counter-intuitive, I suspect by spreading deliveries between Q4 and Q1 it helps smooth the quarterly results. Which is a good goal.

One thing is obvious, they are doing it out of choice, not by force. And they are in a far better position to know what is optimal than ANYONE on this forum.

IMO, this suggests they don't need to worry about margins for Q4 and don't need to sandbag for Q1 deliveries. They just want to get cars to buyers. Forgoing games of that type is a good sign.

 

[goinfraftw]

Loup Ventures 2020 Predictions: Loup Ventures' 2020 Tech Predictions | Loup Ventures

Tesla Will Exceed Street Deliveries Estimate of 463k (by Gene Munster). With the addition of China Gigafactory, which just started producing Model 3, along with the release of Model Y in the fall, we believe the company can grow deliveries by 28% in 2020 compared to the overall auto industry that will likely be flat. We expect Tesla to increase deliveries quarter-over-quarter, giving credibility to the belief that the electric car theme is here today and opening up a vast addressable market — 97% of cars sold today are internal combustion. If our prediction is correct, shares of TSLA will continue to move higher. Tesla is a pure-play investment in the undeniable truth that the future of the automotive industry is both electric and autonomous. We expect Tesla to exit next year with above 60% US EV market share, compared to about 75% today. As a point of reference, in 2018 GM lead the overall US auto market with 17% share.

 

[Stretch2727]

Last few weeks Friday’s (Dec 13 and 20) have been weak days with a flat price or lower at close.

Could be our big buyer just staying away from the manipulation of options expiration?

 

[ggr]

That may be so. But, since this is the "Tesla and the Investment World" forum, it may make more sense to have a separate forum for options and trading. JMO

Yes, it might even be sensible to look for it first.
Advanced TSLA Options Trading

 

[T@oo]

Aaand, we’re grün. (Grünheide, geddit!?)

 

[Boomer19]

That may be so. But, since this is the "Tesla and the Investment World" forum, it may make more sense to have a separate forum for options and trading. JMO

we do - trading

 

[T@oo]

Found on Twitter.

The five pillars on Tesla’s large scale fleet learning

 

[Chickenlittle]

Did not think red was possible with China news today. I expect this to be short lived, shorts wanted to reposition themselves at 435 because they’re dumb, but some profit gathering before the new year. This thing should shoot back up shortly.

I’m not surprised. I suspect report of production will be good but with large run up profit taking and de risk ahead of report

 

[PlaidCPA]

Should we incorporate the following email from Jerome in Q4 production estimates? -


Guillen sent an email to employees in which he said that he couldn’t “be too specific”, but Tesla is working on raising output (via Bloomberg):

"The company is “making preparations” to raise output at its auto plant in Fremont, California, Tesla’s automotive president, Jerome Guillen, said in an email to employees on Tuesday. “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments."
Source: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[bhtooefr]

Worth noting that last Friday, we closed only slightly up, but the steps upward returned with a vengeance on Monday.

Granted, last Friday was a triple witching day, today isn't, but options expiration is still a factor that we've seen every week...

Max Pain is $415 per Opricot, though - I wouldn't expect it to actually close there, but this could be providing capping action.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Limited short covering according to Ihor. “3k shares over last week”

Great for us if true!