Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Kinda funny this time we don't see ridiculously high production estimates from the usual suspects in order to manufacture a miss, since that would mean meeting guidance so the bots get stuck into an infinite loop.

I thought I saw an 114k estimate from Engle on SA but I can't seem to find it. If that's the consensus estimate from the usual suspects, that's too high IMHO.

 

[madodel]

Okay, that'll take ten minutes. How are you going to fill the rest of the day?

Is it at the same esteemed University that trains car salesmen?

 

[madodel]

Merry New Year to you all.

And a Tesla New Year to you as well!

 

[engle]

I will be livestreaming the Tesla Factory New Year's Eve 2019 Delivery Event on Twitch here: (Twitch is now in our cars)

Twitch @teslaruss
I will tweet when my stream starts to:

Russ Engle (@RussEngle) | Twitter

in case you want to follow me to know when I go live, which will probably be around 8 pm or so.

I stopped by Tesla Factory around Noon. They are delivering from Fremont Delivery Center AND the factory. Factory is a large operation with two big tents set-up, tons of Tesla employees, etc. It appears to be very well organized. Saw almost a hundred people picking up cars. Took photos and videos but no time to post it right now... There are ~5 Tesla people just at the welcome tables outside. Many temporary lights set-up in the parking lot for tonight.

Anyone who wants to help out with showing new owners how to pair their phones, etc. is welcome according to the Tesla person I spoke with. Just say "I am from the Tesla Silicon Valley Owners Club" and they will welcome you to help!

I have a 5-7 pm time slot will be back then and plan to stay until midnight. Elon tweeted last night he is going to "help out" so it will be a party I think, probably starting around 8 pm or so when many people have been told to show up to pick up their new Tesla rides.

I hope I will get to see the Model Y in person so I don't have to wait for the stockholder's meeting. If Elon brings the Cybertruck prototype with him, that would be totally awesome!

Russ

 

[woodisgood]

I will be livestreaming the Tesla Factory New Year's Eve 2019 Delivery Event on Twitch here: (Twitch is now in our cars)

Twitch @teslaruss
I will tweet when my stream starts to:

Russ Engle (@RussEngle) | Twitter

in case you want to follow me to know when I go live, which will probably be around 8 pm or so.

I stopped by Tesla Factory around Noon. They are delivering from Fremont Delivery Center AND the factory. Factory is a large operation with two big tents set-up, tons of Tesla employees, etc. It appears to be very well organized. Saw almost a hundred people picking up cars. Took photos and videos but no time to post it right now... There are ~5 Tesla people just at the welcome tables outside. Many temporary lights set-up in the parking lot for tonight.

Anyone who wants to help out with showing new owners how to pair their phones, etc. is welcome according to the Tesla person I spoke with. Just say "I am from the Tesla Silicon Valley Owners Club" and they will welcome you to help!

I have a 5-7 pm time slot will be back then and plan to stay until midnight. Elon tweeted last night he is going to "help out" so it will be a party I think, probably starting around 8 pm or so when many people have been told to show up to pick up their new Tesla rides.

I hope I will get to see the Model Y in person so I don't have to wait for the stockholder's meeting. If Elon brings the Cybertruck prototype with him, that would be totally awesome!

Russ

Have fun! Should be a great event, better than most NYEs I’ve been to over the years. I’d be there if I didn’t have a young’n that can’t be abandoned after he goes to bed.

 

[sundaymorning]

Exactly what I was going to write, add missing the year's goal by a hair. Was expecting more from China in Q4.

I'm hanging on... ignore. Which is what I think Elon was implying to employees recently... to ignore the SP. They probably had a plan to get there, but it had to run perfectly, and stuff happens. But wouldn't be surprised if they made the 360K, just amazed is all.

Good luck either way people, and HNY!
TTTTTT9

I think Elon was targeting 3,000 a week by end of 4th Q in China, but we’re only at 1k at this point. So what does that mean for Q1 2020 since he expected a bad quarter, will it be even worse now? I’m a bit disappointed in that missed target for GF3; which is why I don’t think Elon is sandbagging or lowballing this quarter, I think he truly wants 104k and will do just enough to meet it.

 

[mongo]

I think Elon was targeting 3,000 a week by end of 4th Q in China, but we’re only at 1k at this point. So what does that mean for Q1 2020 since he expected a bad quarter, will it be even worse now? I’m a bit disappointed in that missed target for GF3; which is why I don’t think Elon is sandbagging or lowballing this quarter, I think he truly wants 104k and will do just enough to meet it.

No way Elon said 3k per week for GF3 this year, that is the eventual target. Maybe 3,000 total from GF3 by end of 2019.

And I still think Q1 being tough was related to quarter over quarter deliveries as view when the Q2 earnings call happened (GF3 status unknown). The Q3 call showed strong demand and GF3 is going smoothly. Q1 will be great. At least 94k deliveries, a 10% boost over this quarter .

 

[Duffer]

Wishing my fellow TMC'ers a very Happy and very Prosperous New Year!!


See you in the 20's Investment Thread soon.

 

[Zaxxon]

As the year and thread closes, let's see how I did:

Since I accidentally killed the 2018 thread, here's a cross-post of that fateful missive.

Happy New Year, all! Here's to 2019, the year we see (my predictions...):

• The fabled $35k Tesla become reality
• The Model Y (give it to me now!)
• Gigafactory 1 next phase of build-out, and many more panels on top
• Gigafactory 3 begin production (of something)
• HW 3 and some minor FSD umbrella features (but definitely not FSD)
• Tesla getting customer communications under control (where 'control' indicates at least third-grader aptitude)
• Superchargers in North Dakota (see also: 2018, 2017, 2016)
• The production Semi specs
• Elon doing something amazing
• Elon doing something incredibly stupid

What are your predictions?

I'm giving myself 6.5 out of 10, which I think is pretty decent. Happy to see the 'Musk doing something stupid' going un-crossed.

I missed:
-Next major GF1 build out. I think we see this in 2020 now.
-Production Semi specs.
-Customer comms to third-grade level. Since people are still arriving to deliveries to be told their car isn't there, Energy reps take weeks to reply, etc, this is definitely still a work in progress.

I'm counting superchargers in ND as correct since they're under active construction.

My 2020 list:
-Production Semi specs
-GF1 expansion (exterior)
-500k+ vehicles sold
-Model Y deliveries
-Model S/X interior refresh to align with 3/Y/Cyber
-GF4 nears completion (I don't think it'll be producing in 2020, but I'm more optimistic than most on its timeline and think it'll be close.)
-FSD may hit feature complete in 2020, but we will not get 'real' hands-off FSD in 2020.

Happy New Year, all. 2019 was good. I think 2020 could be great.

 

[Unpilot]

Have a good night ya glorious bastage's.

 

[Cult Member]

Happy New Year from Germany!
GIGAFACTORY 4 will ROCK 2020!

 

[Thekiwi]

Happy new year everyone! (its been 2020 for 12 hours here in New Zealand already, so I’m not apologizing for being early).

About time for 2020 predictions:

End of 2019 production rate: 500k annual run rate (matching Musk goal from February)
Annual unit production guide for 2020: 550k-650k cars & 50k solar roofs.
Dec 31st 2020 share price: $666
Left field gonzo prediction for 2020: Elon rides the Dragon.

 

[wipster]

Yep. There were 387,091 shares traded in the last 3 minutes (but that was to bring the SP up from $417.735 to the $418.33 Closing SP.

Oh well, no 420 for me anyway...

Cheers!

I have about an hour and two minutes to go... but it has been 4:20 at a number of locations in the world... if you get my drift ;-)

 

[DriveMe]

Cleveland Tesla Center. Usually very busy and crowded at the end of each quarter. Here is how it looked this afternoon. Completely sold out! Empty Show room!

 

[Christine69420]

Godt Nyttår!

Happy New Year!

My 2020 list:

• Watch lots of GF4 drone videos
• Buy a few more shares
• Download lots of FSD improvements
  
• Put many kilometres on my TMX
• Stop posting in this thread

 

[JustMe]

Godt Nyttår!
Happy New Year!
My 2020 list:

• Watch lots of GF4 drone videos
• Buy a few more shares
• Download lots of FSD improvements
  
• Put many kilometres on my TMX
• Stop posting in this thread

Sounds good - see you in the 2020 thread!

 

[kengchang]

Cleveland Tesla Center. Usually very busy and crowded at the end of each quarter. Here is how it looked this afternoon. Completely sold out! Empty Show room!

View attachment 494982

There's clearly one Blue Model 3 outside by the window, no demand!

 

[Prunesquallor]

 

[Tenable]

After 5 years being long TSLA almost entirely in options I've finally tapped out. I love this stock, this community (most of you), the cars, and the company. However, I've gotten too many gray hairs with the volatility of TSLA squared with the volatility of options. Today I exited all of those options with the exception of a dozen Jan 22 and June 21 350 calls. I've converted the money from the calls sold into stock. As a result, I expect the share price to explode in the coming months to spite me. You're all welcome.

Happy New Year everyone! 2020 should be an exciting year!

 

[ggr]

Mod: we really mean it. No more "numerology" postings. --ggr.