Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

Today is the last day to convert regular IRA money to Roth IRA money.

So if you want to increase your tax liability convert today.

IE you bought a Tesla ETC.

Just set up roth at same on line location as your IRA and transfer funds.

 

[Krugerrand]

Anyone else willing to go on the record with their prediction?

 

[Unpilot]

Somebody is working real hard to be a party pooper

 

[woodisgood]

35x,xxx - SP dips to 400 or even below.

360,000 - 362,000 - SP mild dip, stays 410-420 range.

362,000 - 364,000 - SP mild up, stays 420-435 range.

365,000+. Yuge up. 450+

Just my guess. Generally wrong about stuff and things.

 

[StealthP3D]

Anyone else willing to go on the record with their prediction?

I suspect we will beat production expectations by a good number. It just feels like Tesla has been running like a well-oiled machine. But what matters more to me are the numbers released near the end of January that will help guide forward profit margins. Here are my reasons for that:

1) Profit potential
2) Profit potential
3) Profit potential

On top of that, guidance for solar and storage.

Production and delivery numbers were more important when the revenue could make or break Tesla.

 

[AudubonB]

As the $TSLA ticker watchers cult comes to a close for 2019, I think it's only fitting to issue awards to the more notable of those among us. My vote goes to @Artful Dodger for the most informed and helped member!

Please raise a glass to toast a truly remarkable achievement. Cheers!

View attachment 494887

Were most of those to MMMMEEeeeeeeee?!?!?!

 

[sundaymorning]

Based on unprecedented international deliveries and findings of other modelers, my prediction is 116k. I don’t believe this number, but that’s what my figuring comes to anyways. If true, that yields 372k

I think it’s highly unlikely that it’s lower than 363k for three highly qualitative reasons:

1: Tesla did not make a crazy rush of deliveries in China although they probably could have done 2,000 on 12/31 if they HAD to. They delivered 15 on 12/30 and “more employee deliveries on 12/30 with customer deliveries beginning in January “

2: Tesla did not offer any deals to clear inventory or push sales like we have seen in the past as EOQ approached.

3: Elon Musk has appeared to be relaxed and happy for weeks. Exuding quiet confidence.

Anyone else willing to go on the record with their prediction?

I don’t dispute your estimate & research, if we hit those numbers the stock will rise. I’m basing my prediction on past quarters, where US deliveries remain a bottleneck due to logistics.a

The reason I think the stock will dip even if we meet expectations is because it may be already priced in at current levels. Wall Street will need a “wow” factor to justify another substantial run up, and I think we need at minimum 110k to get a “mini wow”. Once the stock dips, I believe shorts will figure out that Q4 financials will be decent, and the rise will occur thereafter.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Not to sound pessimistic, I think we’ll meet expectations and deliver around 105-106k, nothing to be wowed about. The stock will dip a bit in the short term to test $400 and will rise from there when we get closer to earnings.

Exactly what I was going to write, add missing the year's goal by a hair. Was expecting more from China in Q4.

I'm hanging on... ignore. Which is what I think Elon was implying to employees recently... to ignore the SP. They probably had a plan to get there, but it had to run perfectly, and stuff happens. But wouldn't be surprised if they made the 360K, just amazed is all.

Good luck either way people, and HNY!
TTTTTT9

 

[UncaNed]

Were most of those to MMMMEEeeeeeeee?!?!?!

Yeah, we wouldn't even be together here without @AudobonB.

 

[kengchang]

Exactly what I was going to write, add missing the year's goal by a hair. Was expecting more from China in Q4.

I'm hanging on... ignore. Which is what I think Elon was implying to employees recently... to ignore the SP. They probably had a plan to get there, but it had to run perfectly, and stuff happens. But wouldn't be surprised if they made the 360K, just amazed is all.

Good luck either way people, and HNY!
TTTTTT9

China has like 1-2K cars ready to go if Tesla wanted, pretty sure the 360K is at least in the bag already.

 

[wipster]

Oh well, all in all it was a very good year!

Now on to bigger and better and faster and quicker and longer life things... here comes the Tesla Twenties!

 

[Jack6591]

Man-Oh-Man. I LOVE Tesla. I am having the time of my life.

This is a hoot.

 

[wipster]

Hopefully, 2020 will make everything 20/20!

And if they're on 20/20 it will be a piece to Marvel at, not a Mickey Mouse article...

 

[wipster]

Exactly what I was going to write, add missing the year's goal by a hair. Was expecting more from China in Q4.

I'm hanging on... ignore. Which is what I think Elon was implying to employees recently... to ignore the SP. They probably had a plan to get there, but it had to run perfectly, and stuff happens. But wouldn't be surprised if they made the 360K, just amazed is all.

Good luck either way people, and HNY!
TTTTTT9

I saw what you did there...

 

[VValleyEV]

As the $TSLA ticker watchers cult comes to a close for 2019, I think it's only fitting to issue awards to the more notable of those among us. My vote goes to @Artful Dodger for the most informed and helped member!

Please raise a glass to toast a truly remarkable achievement. Cheers!

View attachment 494887

@Artful Dodger is one of my favorites also, along with @Fact Checking, @ReflexFunds, @KarenRei. Somehow I started noticing @jbcarioca only a month ago or so, although looks like he has been a member since 2015. And I have been quite enjoying posts recently from @StealthP3D.

Thanks to all of you on this forum for what I have learned from you this year. I actually remember quite a bit of it.

 

[Boomer19]

they’ll be delivering 360k per quarter in the not too distant future. that’s all that matters to me.

 

[wipster]

Based on unprecedented international deliveries and findings of other modelers, my prediction is 116k. I don’t believe this number, but that’s what my figuring comes to anyways. If true, that yields 372k

I think it’s highly unlikely that it’s lower than 363k for three highly qualitative reasons:

1: Tesla did not make a crazy rush of deliveries in China although they probably could have done 2,000 on 12/31 if they HAD to. They delivered 15 on 12/30 and “more employee deliveries on 12/30 with customer deliveries beginning in January “

2: Tesla did not offer any deals to clear inventory or push sales like we have seen in the past as EOQ approached.

3: Elon Musk has appeared to be relaxed and happy for weeks. Exuding quiet confidence.

Anyone else willing to go on the record with their prediction?

111,111

 

[TheTalkingMule]

4Q deliveries will be fine, they would've pushed 2k out the door today in China if needed. 362k-365k or so for 2019. 4Q earnings will probably also be a non-event with less SP run-up than usual and little movement after.

What's really gonna blow the doors off is Battery Day. When I think about all the things they could drop that day, it's gonna catch everyone by surprise. Not gonna detail my predictions, just think even the posters here will be on the low end of what's announced. Exciting times.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Somebody is working real hard to be a party pooper

Yep. There were 387,091 shares traded in the last 3 minutes (but that was to bring the SP up from $417.735 to the $418.33 Closing SP.

Oh well, no 420 for me anyway...

Cheers!

 

[tinm]

4Q deliveries will be fine, they would've pushed 2k out the door today in China if needed. 362k-365k or so for 2019. 4Q earnings will probably also be a non-event with less SP run-up than usual and little movement after.

What's really gonna blow the doors off is Battery Day. When I think about all the things they could drop that day, it's gonna catch everyone by surprise. Not gonna detail my predictions, just think even the posters here will be on the low end of what's announced. Exciting times.

I too am eagerly looking forward to Battery Investor Day.

I just hope Elon applies his own standards of "show me" and "prove it" battery-claim skepticism to Tesla's claims that will be made that day. I want roadmaps, dates, milestones, and at least a few short-term shipping dates for new battery technology in cars that can be ordered *that day*. I don't want just pie-in-the-sky pronouncements. I'm hoping that's why this day has been pushed out a bit into 2020. So as many of the announcements as possible can be real not just promised.