Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ammulder]

Elon’s original goal was 3k / week from GF3 by the end of the year. It was subsequently lowered to 1k-2k / week.

I don't ever remember a number that aggressive. If anything, I thought GF3 was one of the first instances of underpromise and overdeliver. I know they said they planned to get to 3k/week, but I never got the impression that was for 2019 -- it's crazy they even have an operational factory in under a year! I thought 3k/week was the initial production capacity goal, as in, what they get to once all the kinks are worked out and workers trained and suppliers online and etc. Much later than now.

 

[goinfraftw]

Glad to become a TSLA-naire this year after a 7+ year hold (and reinvestments).

Happy New Year and best wishes to everyone for a very prosperous and happy 2020 . Look forward to the start of the Paris Climate Accord.

Here's a 2010 blogpost on predictions in the 2010's: Change of Subject: What will life be like 10 years from today? Here's a glimpse

Follow-up for the 2020's: Column: Looking into the 2020s with 20/20 foresight? Here are a few fearless guesses about life in the near future.

 

[Cherry Wine]

After 5 years being long TSLA almost entirely in options I've finally tapped out. I love this stock, this community (most of you), the cars, and the company. However, I've gotten too many gray hairs with the volatility of TSLA squared with the volatility of options. Today I exited all of those options with the exception of a dozen Jan 22 and June 21 350 calls. I've converted the money from the calls sold into stock. As a result, I expect the share price to explode in the coming months to spite me. You're all welcome.

Happy New Year everyone! 2020 should be an exciting year!

I can commiserate as I've felt compelled to leverage up anywhere from 4:1 to 5:1 due to my limited net worth. A calculated risk, but it has tripled the returns I would have seen thus far if I had just done 1:1, and would do far more if the stock takes off into the stratosphere. The strategy is time intensive and I've definitely picked up a few gray hairs myself. Congrats on getting out of the game - don't forget to buy a lotto ticket every now and then! ;-)

Thank you all for the solid posts in 2019, which cemented the feeling that I had to hold on to my shares during the big drop in H1, but also convinced me to double down (which made me quadruple my original number of shares and drastically lower my average price). I am not sure if I would have been able to take that leap of faith without the many informed voices gathered here. Thanks!

And thanks to the shorts too for providing that unique buying opportunity in 2019. Now go away.

Same here, thank you everyone. I doubled my position during the big drop between ~180-240 this year and so far looking like a good decision (I remain a long buy and hold strategy). This would not of happened without the high quality of information I received from browsing this thread hours a day. Not celebrating yet, but am optimistic for the future!

Keep up the high quality posts, welcome healthy skepticism, and let us continue into 2020 with a durable optimism.

I echo the sentiments in these posts -- particular shout-outs to the bastions of well-conveyed rationality tirelessly offered up by @Fact Checking, @KarenRei, and @neroden throughout the early part of this year, and @SpaceCash and @anthonyj for the much-needed levity.

 

[VValleyEV]

It's true that Tesla records R&D in Operating Costs instead of COGS (Auto makers include them in COGS).
In Q3, Tesla had margins of 19% (see below). If you included R&D in COGS, Tesla's margins would have been about 14%. Still very competitive when compared to Fiat/Chrysler and Ford (both at 13% in the lasted quarter). VW shows 19% but they have huge scale.

View attachment 494862

Here are some of my thoughts:

• Regardless of where you put R&D, they fall to the Operating Income for all companies. So OpInc is apples to apples and with Tesla showing 4% OpInc % in Q3, they beat FCAU (1%) and Ford (3%) and lag VW (7$) - see table above.
• Most companies outside of Auto do not include R&D in COGS - seems to be unique to Auto industry.
• I believe that the Auto companies put R&D into COGS because most of their R&D is related to autos that are in market. Their R&D is to enhance the sales of existing cars. Whereas Tesla spends much of their R&D on cars that have not yet come to market and have no sales (e.g. MY, CT, Semi)
• It is quite amazing that Tesla can drive margins of 19% and OpInc of 4% with only $6B in quarterly sales. Once Tesla gets to $20B or even $10B in Quarterly sales, they will gain huge economies of scale and will outperform all of the competition.

EDIT: Need to add this: Should we be comparing Tesla to companies in the Auto industry? I don't think so. Tesla is much more than an Auto company.

I love that little spreadsheet/chart. Can you post a link, or is this your own creation from the raw data? I would love to have a way to keep up with these numbers in the future. Without working too hard, of course.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I was pleased to learn there exists a fossil fuel free index, SP5F3UP. I figured it would be a useful tool to track the demise of fossils (the success of Tesla’s mission). We should start to see divergence between this index and and the regular S and P.

The google comparison tool is not working for me. Is the problem with the tool, a lack of historical data, my technique... ?

TIA.

 

[deffu]

at Fremont factory delivery event

 

[deffu]

I feel that some will be pushed to next year

 

[Prunesquallor]

Thank you all for the solid posts in 2019, which cemented the feeling that I had to hold on to my shares during the big drop in H1, but also convinced me to double down (which made me quadruple my original number of shares and drastically lower my average price). I am not sure if I would have been able to take that leap of faith without the many informed voices gathered here. Thanks!

And thanks to the shorts too for providing that unique buying opportunity in 2019. Now go away.

And thanks to the mods for keeping this thread on the rails. The intelligent, diverse group of posters can send discussion down some interesting yet divergent paths. You guys did a great job of herding cats (no offense @Krugerrand).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cleveland Tesla Center. Here is how it looked this afternoon.
View attachment 494982

Wait, is that the new Mini Cooper SE?

Cheers for a happy and prosperous 2020!

 

[mickificki]

And thanks to the mods for keeping this thread on the rails. The intelligent, diverse group of posters can send discussion down some interesting yet divergent paths. You guys did a great job of herding cats (no offense @Krugerrand).

krugerrand????

 

[Jovian]

Russ is at the Fremont factory live streaming deliveries on Twitch, he asked if someone could post a link on TMC: Twitch

Edit: Security found him after he accidentally video'ed some of the factory line during his walk. Think he may be ending his stream haha.

Edit AGAIN: He's back online!

 

[Artful Dodger]

In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That’s Within 1 Day

Reuters: In November 2017, Jim Chanos Said Elon Musk Would Leave Tesla By 2020 — That's Within 1 Day | CleanTechnica

Well, technically he will (after midnight at the Fremont NYE Delivery Event).

But he'll be back again on Thursday.

Cheers!

 

[ZeApelido]

This is Fremont, not Shanghai

Meh, most of the business names in Fremont are already in Mandarin.

 

[Steve m]

Meh, most of the business names in Fremont are already in Mandarin.

Not ipho a Vietnamese Soup restaurant, i always wonder why apple never bothered them?

 

[Mike Smith]

New Years tip: There's a chrome extension called 'Old Twitter Layout' that makes twitter look the way it used to. The new layout is absolute garbage.

 

[AudubonB]

Which of you Drunken Lizard's Gizzards is the first to notice Lord Vetinari's action?

 

[AudubonB]

Gotta call it or yer out.

 

[Zaxxon]

Which of you Drunken Lizard's Gizzards is the first to notice Lord Vetinari's action?

Bizarre.

 

[AudubonB]

Nope.

 

[MP3Mike]

Which of you Drunken Lizard's Gizzards is the first to notice Lord Vetinari's action?

This thread has been given new life. The page count doesn't get reset for 2020...

(Thread title updated to include 2020.)