Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - December 2019.pdf - Simplify your life
For Dec ..down 11%, S&P up 3%
Cut TSLA Short position to 10%

Congrats TSLA - you are printing money

 

[aubreymcfato]

As @Papafox and @StealthP3D have alluded to a few times with their insightful posts, Tesla is not a stock to attempt to guess the dips.
I have learned that the hard way:

In July 2013, I made a $500k investment in Apple at $60/share. Sold it one short year later in Aug 2014 for $116/share for $980k. Almost a 100% return. At the time, my best investment gain ever (by far). I was so thrilled. What a mistake that was.
The stock sits today at $293/share and I would have been sitting on $2.4m (a 5x gain). I felt the stock had run up too fast and I was going to get back in on the dip. I never found the right time to get back in. In fact , I would have sold earlier than Aug 2014 (for a smaller gain) but I was waiting for the 1 year holding period for capital gains. Waiting for the 1 year holding period made me money.

After much reflection from that experience, I have two points to share:
- I had tended to sell my Winners too soon and hold my Losers too long. If the investment thesis is still intact, I now let the Winners run.
- There are many companies that will provide returns of 5x, 10x, etc but it is difficult to identify them (e.g. the small biotech with a new cancer drug). If I am lucky, I have the ability to spot maybe 4 or 5 of these companies during my entire investment career...and when they arrive, my plan is too bet big and hold (as long as the investment thesis stays intact).

After the Apple experience, I had been looking for that next 5x, 10x investment. I had been waiting patiently since 2014 to place that big bet. I always had Tesla on my radar screen but in 2019 the thesis really worked for me. I made a big investment prior to the dip and then doubled my investment at the dip - at an entry point below $200/shr. TSLA SP may go up and down over the next several years but I am not going to make the same mistake I did with Apple, selling and looking for the dip. There may never be a time to get back in.

Btw, having invested in Tesla, my Apple investment now ranks #2 on my all-time gains rankings.

This is not advice, as everyone has different investment goals and tolerances.

Happy New Year everyone!

For a n00b like me, buy and hold tightly is the simplest operative strategy.
I understood it over the years (I invested in 2016) and as a tiny investor (compared to the big part of active participants here) I managed to grab 98 shares, so far, buying a handful every dip (I kinda always get under my ~230 ap). I don't think I'll see another dip to buy another meaningful position: it was a big bet the first time (kinda 90% of my cash), but now with a mortgage, a partner and a son I need to be considerate adult ;-)
So I don't know if my TSLA investment will be ever "life-changing" (~100 shares are a good position but nothing huge), but I hope to see it getting bigger and bigger and help my financial life in the future. Hey, maybe even grant me a 20-years-long wish of a vacetion in Iceland!
Being the only investor I know, in a country with a near-zero investing culture, I'm already stepping way out my comfort and expertise zone.
The only smart move I made was doubling down with the SCTY arbitrage, and @neroden conviction and arguments did give me the courage to do it. That payed off (basically I bought some shares at 140$!).

All this to say that this forum is *really, really* helpful and enables small players like me to join the Tesla mission. I loved it when few days ago a ex-Tesla worker (laid off from the S/X lines) said that the forum help him too. We can have a meaningful impact for the people who actually do the Tesla magic: they are all shareholders!
This is a place that allows "collective intelligence" to happen, and we should always try to preserve the conditions for it to happen.
Moderation, self-moderation, netiquette, diversity of informed opinion, a sober but lucid way of liking posts, a safe space for reasoning are among these conditions.
I wish us a Happy 2020, and also for this forum to flourish and become even more a place for informed Tesla investment, debate and "public display of reason", as good ol' Kant used to say ;-)

 

[elasalle]

Any confirmed new markets for Q1 like Iceland, Israel?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Every car built with a VIN# is given a birthdate, that model corresponds to Make, Year, and Style that should be registered with the DMV..

Yes, so what? This does not mean that Tesla has anything like a "model year" that means anything. The difference between the last 2019 Model 3 and the first 2020 one is... probably nothing. It's exactly the same as the difference between the last February Model 3 and the first March one, of whatever year.

Depreciation always occurs to every car when the new year hits, people generally don’t want an older model 2018 when it’s already January/February 2019, especially if a redesign occurs.

I asked for evidence. You are responding by confirming that this is stuff you simply made up, or misinterpreted from something you read. I don't believe you. Where is your evidence that this is true for Teslas?

You can always google or ask around at a dealership come January as research. A 2019 model will be sold less than a car produced in January 2020.

Anything may be true for other makes, but that isn't what you were asserting. You were claiming this is true for Tesla. Unless you have some evidence, I'll stick with my belief that you're just making things up.

We really don't need more noise here. FUD is everywhere. Try not to contribute to it. This one is relatively minor compared to the 3000/wk from Shanghai by the end of the year.

 

[kbM3]

Ein frohes Neues Jahr! (Happy New Year to everyone else...) - on the Taycan note: I met a Taycan in Bruchsal Ost Ionity Charger on the 22nd of December just before lunch. It was a very nice family driving. I was charging my Model 3 - they were unable to use Ionity but had to go to an old EnBW Tripple Charger since the Taycan wasn't playing nice with the Ionity charger. I offered to unlock they Inoity charger but I was told the "colleagues already warned me that this car might experience problems charging very fast". I was a bit shocked to see that Porsche doesn't have fast CCS charging nailed by now. No idea how long they stood at the other charger, I was on my way fast enough and happy I didn't need to rely on an inexperienced EV-maker (Porsche) playing nice with an inexperienced charging net provider (Ionity) - at this point in time I would happily pay an additional $5000 per car just to have access to the Tesla Supercharger Network.

Watch Europe in 2020: new EU emissions rules are now in place. I expect an unlocking of many car makers EV efforts: German forums talk about EVs being deliberately held back until 2020. So I expect quite a bit of movement in many of the big markets. I also expect that some of the open hostility towards EVs e.g. in Germany will change significantly this year (also ref. Audi advertising the eTron more openly in major sports events as mentioned above)

iIRC Taycan includes 800V 270 kW charging standard. You have to add an option for compatibility with the slower 150 kW 400V charging (and laughably $1350 for a home charging cable). Maybe that’s the issue they had?

 

[kengchang]

Any confirmed new markets for Q1 like Iceland, Israel?

I am expecting South Korea becoming the next hot market due to generous subsidy

 

[Causalien]

As @Papafox and @StealthP3D have alluded to a few times with their insightful posts, Tesla is not a stock to attempt to guess the dips.
I have learned that the hard way:

In July 2013, I made a $500k investment in Apple at $60/share. Sold it one short year later in Aug 2014 for $116/share for $980k. Almost a 100% return. At the time, my best investment gain ever (by far). I was so thrilled. What a mistake that was.
The stock sits today at $293/share and I would have been sitting on $2.4m (a 5x gain). I felt the stock had run up too fast and I was going to get back in on the dip. I never found the right time to get back in. In fact , I would have sold earlier than Aug 2014 (for a smaller gain) but I was waiting for the 1 year holding period for capital gains. Waiting for the 1 year holding period made me money.

After much reflection from that experience, I have two points to share:
- I had tended to sell my Winners too soon and hold my Losers too long. If the investment thesis is still intact, I now let the Winners run.
- There are many companies that will provide returns of 5x, 10x, etc but it is difficult to identify them (e.g. the small biotech with a new cancer drug). If I am lucky, I have the ability to spot maybe 4 or 5 of these companies during my entire investment career...and when they arrive, my plan is too bet big and hold (as long as the investment thesis stays intact).

After the Apple experience, I had been looking for that next 5x, 10x investment. I had been waiting patiently since 2014 to place that big bet. I always had Tesla on my radar screen but in 2019 the thesis really worked for me. I made a big investment prior to the dip and then doubled my investment at the dip - at an entry point below $200/shr. TSLA SP may go up and down over the next several years but I am not going to make the same mistake I did with Apple, selling and looking for the dip. There may never be a time to get back in.

Btw, having invested in Tesla, my Apple investment now ranks #2 on my all-time gains rankings.

This is not advice, as everyone has different investment goals and tolerances.

Happy New Year everyone!

There is one school of "feeling" based investment traders that gave me some pretty good advice with regards to this. I think you might find it useful.

Sell in chunks. Sell until you don't feel that pressure to sell.

It's probably counter intuitive, but it is a way to train you to listen to your body and feeling more. The subconscious has no way to directly converse with the conscious, so it shows its opinion in feelings.

For a 1 year doubling, the aapl stock did great. It took 6 years for it to rise another 200%.

 

[PeterJA]

How do we know Tesla is one of the good bets like Apple in 2013 to 2014?

You have to educate yourself about the company. @FrankSG 's recent blog is a great place to start.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

Spoiler

Tesla's potential is not like Apple's. It is far greater.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - December 2019.pdf - Simplify your life
For Dec ..down 11%, S&P up 3%
Cut TSLA Short position to 10%

Congrats TSLA - you are printing money

JHC. Reading this is like drinking strychnine.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yes, so what? This does not mean that Tesla has anything like a "model year" that means anything. The difference between the last 2019 Model 3 and the first 2020 one is... probably nothing. It's exactly the same as the difference between the last February Model 3 and the first March one, of whatever year.


I asked for evidence. You are responding by confirming that this is stuff you simply made up, or misinterpreted from something you read. I don't believe you. Where is your evidence that this is true for Teslas?


Anything may be true for other makes, but that isn't what you were asserting. You were claiming this is true for Tesla. Unless you have some evidence, I'll stick with my belief that you're just making things up.

We really don't need more noise here. FUD is everywhere. Try not to contribute to it. This one is relatively minor compared to the 3000/wk from Shanghai by the end of the year.

The only way we will know is with a statistical analysis when there is enough data. There probably is not enough data until next year. We all know older cars are worth less, but do Tesla’s devalue with a smooth price/time curve by day, or do they step down like a staircase like other brands. In other words, is a nov 2018 car closer in value to a Jan 2018 car, or closer to a Jan 2019 car.

 

[Davidzhao365]

Do we know what is the NPS score for Tesla?

NPS can be very useful to evaluate how competitive a product is.

I think we might be able to derive it from the data below
Top Tesla referrers from the Tesla referral program

This article report Tesla’s score is 96

What Do Companies with High Net Promoter Score Have in Common?

 

[lklundin]

Dropbox - Stanphyl Capital Letter - December 2019.pdf - Simplify your life
For Dec ..down 11%, S&P up 3%
Cut TSLA Short position to 10%

Congrats TSLA - you are printing money

While interesting, it is the same newletter that has already been covered here (the letter was published mid December):

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

Btw, in addition to being an abusive misogynist, Mark BS(Q) is also completely irrational regarding Tesla,
spending the majority of his letter railing against Tesla. Part of this can maybe be explained by this statement:
"our short call position, which we’re also maintaining".

If he indeed holds naked short calls on Tesla, then he should be extremely nervous, since they can cause him unbounded losses - which I guess can explain the abuse he is hurling at Tesla with language that frankly seems unbecoming for a manager of an investment fund.

 

[Causalien]

While interesting, it is the same newletter that has already been covered here (the letter was published mid December):

Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

Btw, in addition to being an abusive misogynist, Mark BS(Q) is also completely irrational regarding Tesla,
spending the majority of his letter railing against Tesla. Part of this can maybe be explained by this statement:
"our short call position, which we’re also maintaining".

If he indeed hold naked short calls on Tesla, then he should be extremely nervous, since they can cause him unbounded losses - which I guess can explain the abuse he is hurling at Tesla with language that frankly seems unbecoming for a manager of an investment fund.

His tsla short lost 50% value... Means tge majority of the short was priced at $215

10% of his fund is probably less than $1mil now. It's irrelevant.

 

[MP3Mike]

Expect the shorts to run with this one: Tesla may have been on Autopilot in California crash which killed two

Summary a Tesla ran a red light and killed two people in a Honda. NHTSA is going to investigate. Autopilot may, or may not, have been in use.

 

[avoigt]

Ein frohes Neues Jahr! (Happy New Year to everyone else...) - on the Taycan note: I met a Taycan in Bruchsal Ost Ionity Charger on the 22nd of December just before lunch. It was a very nice family driving. I was charging my Model 3 - they were unable to use Ionity but had to go to an old EnBW Tripple Charger since the Taycan wasn't playing nice with the Ionity charger. I offered to unlock they Inoity charger but I was told the "colleagues already warned me that this car might experience problems charging very fast". I was a bit shocked to see that Porsche doesn't have fast CCS charging nailed by now. No idea how long they stood at the other charger, I was on my way fast enough and happy I didn't need to rely on an inexperienced EV-maker (Porsche) playing nice with an inexperienced charging net provider (Ionity) - at this point in time I would happily pay an additional $5000 per car just to have access to the Tesla Supercharger Network.

Watch Europe in 2020: new EU emissions rules are now in place. I expect an unlocking of many car makers EV efforts: German forums talk about EVs being deliberately held back until 2020. So I expect quite a bit of movement in many of the big markets. I also expect that some of the open hostility towards EVs e.g. in Germany will change significantly this year (also ref. Audi advertising the eTron more openly in major sports events as mentioned above)

Thanks for your comment and information.

In fact and I can testify from first hand sources, one of the major issue the Taycan has is issues with fast charging. They have a lot of not required break-ups and to be frank looking how they designed the drive train including battery pack with pouch cells I am not surprised at all.

There are other even more severe issues reported the vehicle has I can't talk about but they may boil up already this month in case they are unable to fix it. There are commitments to meet in the US which will force them to.

 

[lklundin]

There are other even more severe issues reported the vehicle has I can't talk about but they may boil up already this month in case they are unable to fix it. There are commitments to meet in the US which will force them to.

Are you under an NDA with Porsche, or why can you not talk about their problems with the Taycan?

 

[kbM3]

The only way we will know is with a statistical analysis when there is enough data. There probably is not enough data until next year. We all know older cars are worth less, but do Tesla’s devalue with a smooth price/time curve by day, or do they step down like a staircase like other brands. In other words, is a nov 2018 car closer in value to a Jan 2018 car, or closer to a Jan 2019 car.

My guess is that it is a staircase down. People don’t track by the month and there will be a definite difference in value between a 2020 and a 2019 Tesla of identical mileage even if they are identically built only 2 weeks apart.

There were many stories of Tesla discounting 2018 new inventory in early 2019.

in fact, I am relatively sure this is why Tesla changed their policy earlier this year. They have been manufacturing 2020 models, since October, just like the rest of the industry does.

 

[avoigt]

Are you under an NDA with Porsche, or why can you not talk about their problems with the Taycan?

I gave a verbal commitment.

 

[JustSaying]

Gasparino having fun trolling TSLAQ:

Tesla, WeWork CEOs top winners & losers of 2019

View attachment 495211

Also on a roll: Icelandic broadcaster RÚV, with this year's áramótaskaup (New Years parody show), which had quite a focus on the environment this year (be sure to turn on subtitles unless you speak Icelandic. )

Also, (mostly) unrelated, but still amusing...

Charles Gasparino? When did he flip?
FOX Business use to trot him out and he never said anything good about Tesla.
what he did say was usually poorly researched, headline stuff.
Wow...

 

[floydboy]

Expect the shorts to run with this one: Tesla may have been on Autopilot in California crash which killed two

Summary a Tesla ran a red light and killed two people in a Honda. NHTSA is going to investigate. Autopilot may, or may not, have been in use.

Autopilot doesn't do red lights or stop signs yet. It merely recognizes that they are there. So what they'll actually be investigating is the actions(or inaction) of the human operator.