Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

Some interesting information about the Taycan Turbo S

Taycan Turbo S in selected Showrooms in Germany to be delivered after Jan 21st.

Video in German:
16:42 Panel gaps at pre production model (no a real concern but still bad)
17:37 Display does not react, Sales lady said its because there is no internet access ... ?
18:45 Average consumption 42.5kwh/100km

Range according to display 281km or 174mi

Wow, it's like. Each one of their contractors does one part of the function and attach their own hardware to it. Each screen serves only one function.

 

[kbM3]

You have to give people incentive to upsell. You don't make your lower-end cars as good or better than your higher-end cars. And furthermore, is S then supposed to just stagnate all the way until Roadster comes out? Or is it supposed to just keep going up in range, making the Roadster look all the more ridiculous?

The wishful thinking over S/X that we always see (but which got really bad in 1H '19) seems to be surging again :Þ Hey, where's all the "imminent huge pack upgrade switch to 2170s" people that had been posting relentlessly and discouraging people from buying S/Xs for the past three years because "they'd soon be obsolete"?

Now that S/X will actually be getting a pack upgrade - at least for the high end (~$125k or so) - people are now convincing themselves that this means that it's going to literally double in energy capacity and charge at rates that require taking up two stalls :Þ



I have no clue what you're trying to say. Only one cable can be used at once. Are you trying to say that they're going to - after just having done a retrofit - go back and retrofit stations again? And then add more cabinets to be able to power these extra cables for the extra power per stall? And the transformers and switchgears for those cabinets? And double up the feeds to the stations?

There's no logic to any of this. Tesla is switching to 250kW per stall. They just started this switchover. They're not going to suddenly jump up to way higher than 250kW per stall.

The wishful thinking is getting crazy again. :Þ

Elon did hint that the 250kW charging rate was not going to be the maximum for the Cybertruck. Maybe we will hear more about that on battery/drivetrain day.

During the Cybertruck reveal he said it "would be capable of more than 250kW charging. We will reveal the actual number later."

The screen also had a + just like the range numbers.

View attachment 496801

Elon has confirmed Roadster2 has a double layer pack.
Cybertruck Plaid seems to demand one.
Elon loves commonality.
Elon loves big goals. E.g 1000 km range.
250 kW+ already confirmed for Cybertruck (as noted)

So why not double height pack for SX as well as Cybertruck Plaid and Roadster2?
I would guess 500 kW charging using common V3 components for Cybertruck Plaid, Roadster2 and SX Plaid.


So @KarenRei , why are you so sure this can’t happen? Roadster2 is projected at only 10k / year volume and still has the performance advantages and thrills of being a small(ish) roadster or so, so cannibalization seems like a weak argument. Is it that you don’t think they’d do that large a redesign for SX?

 

[KarenRei]

You're right he didn't hint at it, he outright said it. During the Cybertruck reveal he said it "would be capable of more than 250kW charging. We will reveal the actual number later."

The screen also had a + just like the range numbers.

View attachment 496801

Okay, so capable of "250kW or more". Looks like the Model 3 situation, where it was introduced with a limit of 120kW, but the hardware was capable of 250kW, which became usable when Tesla finally got around to starting to introduce V3 chargers.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Quite a bit of Iran fallout over this weekend - enough that the market may still have substantial jitters over continued escalation. I wouldn’t be surprised if the indices are down again tomorrow.

 

[gene]

Quite a bit of Iran fallout over this weekend - enough that the market may still have substantial jitters over continued escalation. I wouldn’t be surprised if the indices are down again tomorrow.

With "stable genius" at the helm, the situation will likely get worse before it gets better.

 

[madodel]

On how far Tesla is ahead of the others: One of my pet peeves with my old Audi was that they never updated the software. I mean, I didn't expect wonders from a legacy car maker but the obvious stuff that newer models could do anyways, why not throw a bone to the existing owners?

I thought this is history since the eTron can do OTA updates. However, Audi seems to not even update software of cars that are literally only a few months old: Audi upgrades e-tron electric SUV in Europe with more range and efficiency - AudiWorld Forums



Also German Audi forums are (rightfully) quite upset about this...

They want you to buy the new model to get the new update.

 

[NicoV]

Wow, it's like. Each one of their contractors does one part of the function and attach their own hardware to it. Each screen serves only one function.

and a very small navigation screen (compared to a Tesla) that barely shows where you’re driving (don’t even think about showing google maps). When I get into somebody elses car and see their small navigation screen screen, I can’t help but think about Crocodile Dundee:

 

[Chocochip]

With "stable genius" at the helm, the situation will likely get worse before it gets better.

Your optimism regarding the possibility of things getting better while this particular individual calls the shots (ahem...) is admirable!

 

[Buckminster]

The red ? can only be for bty cell production. No other process for making components of the cars would require so much production space.

EDIT: @mongo rightly points out a foundry for all the castings would also fit is such a space

It's not like Tesla is going to 'vertically integrate' steel or tire production for its product.

At least not in the next 2 years....

Cheers!

The ER letter stated that Shanghai would produce only M3 and MY. Is it possible that they will produce Semi's in Shanghai? Also, M2 could be coming soon?

 

[Beltsbear]

Elon has confirmed Roadster2 has a double layer pack.
Cybertruck Plaid seems to demand one.
Elon loves commonality.
Elon loves big goals. E.g 1000 km range.
250 kW+ already confirmed for Cybertruck (as noted)

So why not double height pack for SX as well as Cybertruck Plaid and Roadster2?
I would guess 500 kW charging using common V3 components for Cybertruck Plaid, Roadster2 and SX Plaid.


So @KarenRei , why are you so sure this can’t happen? Roadster2 is projected at only 10k / year volume and still has the performance advantages and thrills of being a small(ish) roadster or so, so cannibalization seems like a weak argument. Is it that you don’t think they’d do that large a redesign for SX?

The S/X don’t need a double height pack. 2170 single height would not require a lot of work on S/X but double height would be a whole new car. 2170 plus chemistry advances could do 130kwh in a single stack on the S/X which would get great range.

 

[madodel]

and a very small navigation screen (compared to a Tesla) that barely shows where you’re driving (don’t even think about showing google maps). When I get into somebody elses car and see their small navigation screen screen, I can’t help but think about Crocodile Dundee:

I was in Germany last week and rented a Mercedes GLA. Not just a small GPS screen with a large bezel, but every time there was a traffic announcement and big banner popped up that covered most of the map. That was so annoying and always seemed to happen when I was trying to figure out where I needed to turn.

 

[JoostP]

TSLA could be at any price between $600 and $300 on February 21st and he will have lost everything. Truly a baffling bet. I mean, why not purchase fewer options ATM instead so you'll at least make money on one side or the other?

I don't understand the lose everything, these calls and puts are probably very cheap to obtain.

Can anybody put a price on these calls and puts. (Under $2 a piece I guess).

 

[aubreymcfato]

IMHO, the fun part is how much the worst of the shorts - particularly Greenspan - despise Omar, from the tops of their pitchforks to the bottom of their hooves. And so there he is, palling around with Elon in person. It'll fuel endless rage and conspiracy theories, which only serve to make them look ridiculous.

I probably missed this... Who is Omar? Why shorts despise him? Also, it seems the only one without a Twitter account...

 

[MP3Mike]

I probably missed this... Who is Omar? Why shorts despise him? Also, it seems the only one without a Twitter account...

Omar went by @TeslaTruth (SteveJobsGhost) on Twitter and got banned from Twitter for life for copyright violations. (And probably a little more.)

 

[mltv]

Got my cybertruck on Roblox - jailbreak

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't understand the lose everything, these calls and puts are probably very cheap to obtain.

Can anybody put a price on these calls and puts. (Under $2 a piece I guess).

Jack has a screenshot of his holdings in the video that shows his cost which is in the last column:

 

[jerry33]

You're right he didn't hint at it, he outright said it. During the Cybertruck reveal he said it "would be capable of more than 250kW charging. We will reveal the actual number later."

The screen also had a + just like the range numbers.

View attachment 496801

My guess is the Cybertruck will be able to use the eventual Quantum SuperCharger Network for the Semi so those pulling trailers can charge easily.

 

[MP3Mike]

Okay, so capable of "250kW or more". Looks like the Model 3 situation, where it was introduced with a limit of 120kW, but the hardware was capable of 250kW, which became usable when Tesla finally got around to starting to introduce V3 chargers.

The question is will the RWD version be capable of much more than 250kW? The tri-motor design will easily be capable of 500kW since it is going to use two packs that are stacked. (According to MotorTrend.)

But where will it get that? Supercharger V4? Megacharger stalls used for the Tesla Semi? (Makes sense especially if you are towing in the Cybertruck.)

 

[Chickenlittle]

While I agree with you about NIO it is a fact that for many manufacturers contract manufacturing is useful for low volume and/or different technology vehicle. There are some big-name exmples:

Porsche Boxster was first produced by Valmet of Finland;
Jaguar I-Pace, many BMW convertibles, several FCA models (Chrysler and Jeep) all produced by Magna-Steyr;
Buick Envision produced by BAIC;
and the list goes on.
Especially for BEV's a fair number of brands are touting their own capability when they are actually beginning to produce Chinese-built, Chinese-designed BEV components with German positioning and packaging.

All this is nothing new. It's been common practice for decades.

All that is novel for NIO is skipping the factory entirely. Were the design to be outstanding and the packaging, promotion and support to be excellent there is no reason why this would not work. NIO seems to have skipped a few steps...

This really is pretty much the APPL modus and it works brilliantly. It does require unusual attention to detail and superb quality control.

You are giving examples of particular model cars not one example of an entire car company outsourcing ALL their car models.

 

[dc_h]

The red ? can only be for bty cell production. No other process for making components of the cars would require so much production space.

EDIT: @mongo rightly points out a foundry for all the castings would also fit is such a space

It's not like Tesla is going to 'vertically integrate' steel or tire production for its product.

At least not in the next 2 years....

Cheers!

Cyber or smaller sized Cyber truck.