Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Open Interest]

Holy cow, I can’t get a thing done at work these days!!

 

[Sanny]

I have to ask any old TMC members (old on TMC, not necessarily of age): is this what 2013 felt like? I'm trying to get work done... it's so damn hard to focus on anything other than the unmentionable!

Yes.
Also there is some light feeling of sadness when people brag about accumulating tsla in the last 6 months cheaper than it was when you finished accumulating years ago. Looking at current prices makes it go away.

 

[jhm]

Time to readjust your blind faith numbers?

It's on my to-do list. Briefly we are at about median sentiment for the nominal $3250 2028 target. I'm inclined to believe we'll have plenty of opportunities to buy below $470 over 2020.

 

[LJS22]

Why Jim Cramer likes Tesla's stock on TheStreet

He sounds more serious than he normally does... I wonder if he went and did some hw and realized that this bet is absolutely an incredible bet on an unstoppable incredible growth company.

He talked about it before the 8am show today, they said “you’re lucky your wife bought a model x when she did!” And he said yea I really was, my daughter drove one then my wife wanted one so I went back and looked at the balance sheet, talked to the CFO that said they could raise $2 billion in a heartbeat and it made me realize this isn’t going anywhere.

 

[NicoV]

Holy cow, I can’t get a thing done at work these days!!

You still have to work?

 

[ninpb]

He talked about it before the 8am show today, they said “you’re lucky your wife bought a model x when she did!” And he said yea I really was, my daughter drove one then my wife wanted one so I went back and looked at the balance sheet, talked to the CFO that said they could raise $2 billion in a heartbeat and it made me realize this isn’t going anywhere.

So he basically admitted to not doing his due diligence about giving financial advice to the nation prior to this "revelation".

 

[Tslynk67]

We're getting higher in share price quicker than I thought we would before earnings. Not out of the realm of possibility that we hit 500 before the end of next week. I was thinking we'd hit 500 the week of earnings or about 3-4 trading days before earnings at which point a short/bear attack would take it back to mid to low 400's.

I'm personally hoping that shorts make a new push of shorting when we hit 500 only for Q4 earnings to absolutely destroy expectations. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the fact that Tesla made/delivered so many more cars than Q3 without any help from Giga 3 means more margin expansion due to more cars sold verses fixed depreciation numbers..... verses needed Giag 3 help to reach those some exact numbers. Then add in much higher S/X numbers and no discounting for any models throughout Q4 and also price increases.....yeah I think earnings are going to blow away people.

Just need that Q1 guidance of profit and steady production/delivery numbers to ice the cake.

Not only that, but the ASP, at least of European cars, is on the higher side - a majority of sales are LR-AWD spec. Either Tesla held-back with SR+ orders or there's just not the demand for them. I personally think the latter, the LRAWD is the sweet-spot, especially with the performance pack added.

Imagine after all that fuss over the $35k model...

Seriously difficult to guess where this is going. Can just not stop or we could see an attack forcing a correction, but so far trying to push the SP below the opening price is mostly being met with robust buying.

As posited by others, this stinks of heavy accumulation by deep pockets, and they don't care what they pay right now, it seems. Let's hope their appetite does run out...

 

[adiggs]

In fact, this kind of "financial wisdom" is precisely why I have such a dim view of most financial "advisors".

I share this dim view of financial advisors / management and Modern Portfolio Theory, for all of the reasons you list. Volatility as a proxy for risk makes the math work; that doesn't mean that it actually works.

If you somehow got the idea from my post that I was defending MPT and the use of volatility as a proxy for risk, I apologize. That's the exact opposite of what I was trying for

 

[dha]

I have to ask any old TMC members (old on TMC, not necessarily of age): is this what 2013 felt like? I'm trying to get work done... it's so damn hard to focus on anything other than the unmentionable!

While this run has been great, 2013 was something else because options were just stupidly cheap. It took market makers a while to properly price in the volatility as TSLA had been range bound for so long. Buying calls felt like printing money. You really need to pay for options now.

 

[Nocturnal]

While this run has been great, 2013 was something else because options were just stupidly cheap. It took market makers a while to properly price in the volatility as TSLA had been range bound for so long. Buying calls felt like printing money. You really need to pay for options now.

How did they compare to options back in May-July 2019? I'm totally spoiled now as I've had quite a few $50 or so calls profit me 1k or more. Now I have to put real money up on future calls. :/

 

[StealthP3D]

It only takes a bit of bad news. If profits are just a touch under, the stock will tank. If some bad news about deliveries comes out, it will tank. I'm getting nervous and thinking about selling rather than waiting for my purchases to reach the 1 year capital gains limit. I figured the deliveries would be good, but the profits are always a crap shoot. Then I'd have to wait through Q1 results as well.

It's not clear what you mean when you say "Then I'd have to wait through Q1 results." What do you mean by "waiting"? In my experience, that's the best part of investing. You make money while "waiting". Or are you investing money you need for life expenses in the next few months? If so, that's a no-no in my book. Investing is not gambling (even if it has elements of gambling within it).

I'm going to guess you are not a wealthy person and will never become one unless you change the way you look at money. Fear of losing money is a powerful impediment to actually making money. Unless you're gambling with money you shouldn't be investing, you should probably slow down and look at the bigger picture. The much bigger picture.

At this point I'm looking at around 75% gain. Not sure the current price level will even need bad news to correct.

The amount of your gain is only relevant in terms of tax implications. And, without knowing your tax situation, I will still venture to guess that your 75% gain is a net negative in terms of tax implications should you sell now. Corrections are normal. None of us know when they will happen. It's counter-productive to worry about normal corrections.

Look at it this way. You're sport-fishing and hook a huge Blue Marlin. Your fishing line is probably too light for such a huge fish. But you really want to land it, it's the biggest fish you've ever hooked. So you set the drag of your real to an appropriate level for the light line. When the fish puts up a fight you let him run. Even if it's a hundred yards at a time. The fish is much bigger than you and your skinny little fishing line. If you don't want him to get away from you you have to let him run, even if it's the wrong direction. If you fight him, you risk breaking the line and then you will never land the big fish. But with patience, and a soft touch, you can eventually reel him in. You will simply never land a huge fish if you fight it.

 

[LJS22]

So he basically admitted to not doing his due diligence about giving financial advice to the nation prior to this "revelation".

Pretty much haha he just said “we bought the car, the stock, we’re all in”

Cramer bought in around $280 btw

 

[Fact Checking]

i am friends with lots of millionaires through one hobby

So that one is easy to guess, it's your TMC friends, but what's this other hobby:

and lots of lowlife borderline hobos through another,

are you still reading Seeking Alpha??

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes.

My IPO shares are doing okay, in case anyone is wondering.

Here since 2009 and only 60 posts. You should post more garbage, like me!

 

[Chickenlittle]

This type of price action helps those with deep in the money calls. I remember during the last short squeeze that my very deep in the money calls which usually sell at a discount, sold at a premium. It was like throwing chum in the water during a shark feeding frenzy. It was just another way to cover

 

[M3Rider]

Pic taken 12/23/19 of my 2018 post-private call purchase

This was going for <$50 back in June of 19.

Today 1/7/20.

Yay! What a quick trip.

Edit: Jack Rickard though...

 

[carterm2]

Tesla Convertible Bonds up 81% since purchase

5/29/19. $88.50 - $160.09 as of yesterday.

 

[avoigt]

I would love to see all the popular shorts in an interview these days attempting to explain what happened to the SP, that would be the icing on the cake ... Jim at least is lucky that he has a wife and daughter smarter then him and not in his bubble. He woke up right in time.

How anybody could trust the "logic" of those bears does escape me.

Truly hope that people now realize you better don't trust this guys.

Anyway these are IMO all small players and something larger is happening I believe like some of the big guys positioning for Tesla being included in 2020/21 in the S&P.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Here since 2009 and only 60 posts. You should post more garbage, like me!

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chronopublish is my hero!

 

[Krugerrand]

How dare you say he dances as bad as Elaine. Take it back!

But I didn’t say Elaine was a bad dancer.

I’m very happy for Elon and everyone at Tesla. They deserve to interpretive dance without judgement from the peanut gallery/armchair quarterbacks. I’m also happy for myself. Got to go call my tax guy and rub it in some more.