Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Yes, really. I have a dual-motor performance model, and I have not seen any material range reduction in the extreme cold that we recently had in the Northeast U.S. Our ICE vehicles did not handle the cold as well, having a myriad of different issues caused by the extreme cold.

As the AAA study noted, it all depends on how you're driving: if you drive at low speeds, it can be a lot; if you drive at highway speeds, only a little**. Likewise it depends on the air temperature, whether you're doing a full trip or not (higher energy consumption at the beginning), road conditions, wind, etc, etc, etc. But for a "typical" winter day vs. a "typical" summer day - 20°F/-7°C vs. 75°F/24°C - you lose about 18% if you drive US06 (typical US-style highway driving); 29% if you drive at moderate speeds; 38% if you drive EPA-combined (mix of slow and moderate-speed driving); and 45% if you drive UDDS (slow speeds). But geez, you'd be driving a long time trying to exhaust a pack with UDDS-style driving

** Only a little reduction relative to the same sort of driving in the summer. Obviously, if you drive at fast highway speeds during the summer, you won't get the EPA range (and certainly not the WLTP) then either. But we're talking about a reduction relative to your summer range, not relative to some arbitrary range standard.

 

[mrdoubleb]

It's an interesting notion. The EU wants the number of EVs on their roads to increase dramatically. Penalizing US vehicle imports, but carving out an exception for EVs, would be an interesting possibility that I hadn't considered.

(As for today's market action: "Hey, you can feel free to bottom out any minute now!" :Þ 1,5% behind NASDAQ... on no news.... actually, I take that back, on good news... )

China could do the same BTW...

 

[shlokavica22]

Where did you get this nonsense FUD your are disseminating about ARK Invest's Tesla holding? It remains their top holding. Whenever a stock exceeds or nears 10% of one of their ETFs, they pare some of it. In December they were buying Tesla; this year they had to sell some to maintain their desired portfolio balance.

Meanwhile, ARK does not own 5% of Tesla and notification to the SEC and Tesla shareholders are not required. However, ARK does email its position changes every market day.

Ark Invest discussing Tesla on CNBC - 8 days ago:

Let's do it in a more informative way- in Q4 they reduced their position with 332,618 shares. They ended Q4 holding 414,107 shares.

I'm not going into their trading strategy and don't intend to speculate what lies behind their decision to sell.

 

[viridi]

I have dual-motor performance as well. How come you don't get it and I do? Have you taken it on long road trip in the cold? The temperature I went to Edmonton in was about 4 F.

Other than the range reduction my Model 3 did do very well on slippery roads and the car heats up really fast.

Not sure why we are not getting it. Have not gone on a very long road trip, but did about 150 miles round trip in very cold weather (below 0 F) and did not have a material reduction. I also have a friend who lives by me with a dual motor, and he also has not had any material reduction.

 

[jhm]

Who is Tesla partnering with on drivetrain for truck?

Hey, @KarenRei, you can cast your vote. No one is looking.

 

[Etna]

Can anyone in Belgium be bothered to alert the local press? Musk, personally helping with the arrival of the first Model 3s to Europe, can only be good PR.

The local press in Belgium is stalking him all right. His landing was published by a major newspaper just minutes ago.

Elon Musk aan het landen op luchthaven van Oostende

The article says he is going to check out the first Model 3 shipment at ICO in Zeebrugge and that event will not be open to the public.

 

[Cobbler]

Damn, Elon is in Belgium again. Wish I could be present just to see him IRL.
I would be cheerleading and shouting his name like a die-hard fanboy

 

[larmor]

The local press in Belgium is stalking him all right. His landing was published by a major newspaper just minutes ago.

Elon Musk aan het landen op luchthaven van Oostende

The article says he is going to check out the first Model 3 shipment at ICO in Zeebrugge and that event will not be open to the public.

New Shortsville Times headline: CEO Tesla needs to help delivery in person in europe d/t layoffs, but will keep warm with burning cash in oil can drums...

 

[KarenRei]

Glovis Captain returning to Belgium (Antwerp). So almost certainly no Model 3s left aboard (was already the operating assumption, but uncertain). I'm stopping tracking of it.

 

[schonelucht]

Meanwhile, ARK does not own 5% of Tesla and notifications to the SEC and Tesla shareholders are not required. However, ARK does email its position changes every market day.

Regardless, the investor section on the Tesla website itself glitchy. There are Form 4's not appearing there etc.

 

[Nocturnal]

Not sure why we are not getting it. Have not gone on a very long road trip, but did about 150 miles round trip in very cold weather (below 0 F) and did not have a material reduction. I also have a friend who lives by me with a dual motor, and he also has not had any material reduction.

I don't see how that is the case. Driving in that temperature (assuming you are using the heater) will result in about 30% drop in range. Then add in losses due to highway speeds, winds etc. This is supported by my own experience (and many other anecdotes) as well as outside studies. I saw total losses as high as 50% when dealing with 10 degree weather and 70mph in heavy wind/snow conditions.

Personally, I think EVs have more pros than cons in cold weather but range loss is sizable.

 

[PhaseWhite]

View attachment 375522 View attachment 375524 View attachment 375525 View attachment 375526 View attachment 375527 View attachment 375528 View attachment 375529 View attachment 375530 View attachment 375531 2/6/19 around 8:50am - lot looks half full, employee said that they are gearing up for the standard Model 3 production so things may have slowed there. Won’t be sold at $35K though initially - more like $40K with a lot of amenities removed (ie cheaper stereo system with smaller speakers, no charger included, etc) to make the car lighter to reach the 240 mile range with a smaller battery. The $35K car will come later -

@augkuo Posted an interesting update in the Fremont parking lot pics thread.
Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

Sounds like the introduction of the SR may be on deck. 240 mile range would be a positive surprise.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I have dual-motor performance as well. How come you don't get it and I do? Have you taken it on long road trip in the cold? The temperature I went to Edmonton in was about 4 F.

Other than the range reduction my Model 3 did do very well on slippery roads and the car heats up really fast.

You parking it inside a garage or outside? If the latter, you’ll lose a lot of range right off the bat as the car has to try to bring the battery up to temp(and lose a lot overnight making sure the battery isn’t damaged). Also, if you can, timing charging to finish right before you drive it will improve range in the cold, since charging naturally heats the battery somewhat. Preconditioning is also a good idea, as otherwise regen may be restricted/disabled until the battery is heated, further reducing range.

 

[Joe F]

I have dual-motor performance as well. How come you don't get it and I do? Have you taken it on long road trip in the cold? The temperature I went to Edmonton in was about 4 F.

Other than the range reduction my Model 3 did do very well on slippery roads and the car heats up really fast.

While this is not the correct thread to be educating someone on cold weather BEV driving, your description of having parked overnight, without stating the car was plugged in and pre charged (read, battery brought up to proper operating temperature) shows a lack of understanding how to properly operate said vehicle in cold weather.

Also your comment about plugging into a supercharger with a cold pack is yet another indication you need to better educate yourself in how things work.

Please do a few advanced searches on TMC on the topic. Here's one for you to start with.

 

[viridi]

I don't see how that is the case. Driving in that temperature (assuming you are using the heater) will result in about 30% drop in range. Then add in losses due to highway speeds, winds etc. This is supported by my own experience (and many other anecdotes) as well as outside studies. I saw total losses as high as 50% when dealing with 10 degree weather and 70mph in heavy wind/snow conditions.

Personally, I think EVs have more pros than cons in cold weather but range loss is sizable.

Again, I have not had any material loss. Could be partially that I do not have the heat turned up very much, and in the very cold, I was not driving all that fast (about 55-60 MPH on the highway). Could also be that part of my longer trip was on side roads, at lower speeds. Also, I am charging in a garage that even on the coldest days we have had does not go below about 48 F. I have had minor reductions, but nothing that I have noticed or has caused me concerns. ICE cars also get impacted by various conditions and get reduced gas mileage depending on various factors, including snow and wind. I can only speak to my experiences and that of a close friend of mine who drives in similar conditions.

 

[bdy0627]

As the AAA study noted, it all depends on how you're driving: if you drive at low speeds, it can be a lot; if you drive at highway speeds, only a little**. Likewise it depends on the air temperature, whether you're doing a full trip or not (higher energy consumption at the beginning), road conditions, wind, etc, etc, etc. But for a "typical" winter day vs. a "typical" summer day - 20°F/-7°C vs. 75°F/24°C - you lose about 18% if you drive US06 (typical US-style highway driving); 29% if you drive at moderate speeds; 38% if you drive EPA-combined (mix of slow and moderate-speed driving); and 45% if you drive UDDS (slow speeds). But geez, you'd be driving a long time trying to exhaust a pack with UDDS-style driving

** Only a little reduction relative to the same sort of driving in the summer. Obviously, if you drive at fast highway speeds during the summer, you won't get the EPA range (and certainly not the WLTP) then either. But we're talking about a reduction relative to your summer range, not relative to some arbitrary range standard.

Range loss during winter here in Wisconsin is an issue for us. We have a 100D model X that my wife drives. She commutes about 2 hours between Appleton and Milwaukee. She did fine with the X during the warmer months but now in the winter, particularly with temperatures between 20 and -10, the loss of range has become enough of an issue that she often takes our 1 remaining ICE vehicle. She estimates she loses about 40% range with the cold weather. There are 2 superchargers along the route, but they aren't located in areas that are practical for her. One is in Oshkosh, just 20 minutes south of us. She has to stop there, just 20 minutes after leaving home, to charge the battery back up near max. The supercharger near Milwaukee is actually about 15 minutes south of the city, while she works about 10 minutes northwest of the city. It's really inconvenient for her to have to spend the extra 30 minutes of driving to get down to the supercharger south of Milwaukee and back to where she works, but she has to do that in the winter or she may not make it back to Oshkosh. She does do a little bit of city driving during her workday in Milwaukee. Her driving is primarily highway with speeds around 75 mph, and she keeps her cabin around 70 degrees. Based upon the AAA study, I have suggested she try to keep the cabin at 60 degrees to help her range.

 

[KarenRei]

@augkuo Posted an interesting update in the Fremont parking lot pics thread.
Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

Sounds like the introduction of the SR may be on deck. 240 mile range would be a positive surprise.

IMHO, nothing that they wrote sounds realistic. You don't lighten a car meaningfully by removing the stereo and charge cable. SR was never supposed to be 240 miles. And who would buy a SR non-PUP for $40k vs. a MR PUP for $41,9k? I think the employee has some things confused.

 

[KarenRei]

Range loss during winter here in Wisconsin is an issue for us. We have a 100D model X that my wife drives. She commutes about 2 hours between Appleton and Milwaukee. She did fine with the X during the warmer months but now in the winter, particularly with temperatures between 20 and -10, the loss of range has become enough of an issue that she often takes our 1 remaining ICE vehicle. She estimates she loses about 40% range with the cold weather. There are 2 superchargers along the route, but they aren't located in areas that are practical for her. One is in Oshkosh, just 20 minutes south of us. She has to stop there, just 20 minutes after leaving home, to charge the battery back up near max. The supercharger near Milwaukee is actually about 15 minutes south of the city, while she works about 10 minutes northwest of the city. It's really inconvenient for her to have to spend the extra 30 minutes of driving to get down to the supercharger south of Milwaukee and back to where she works, but she has to do that in the winter or she may not make it back to Oshkosh. She does do a little bit of city driving during her workday in Milwaukee. Her driving is primarily highway with speeds around 75 mph, and she keeps her cabin around 70 degrees. Based upon the AAA study, I have suggested she try to keep the cabin at 60 degrees to help her range.

IMHO, not sure what she's charging to, but I'd recommend charging to 95% on particularly cold days. 95% is a lot less damaging than 100%, and it'll only be for a rather small percentage of your days per year.

She might want to consider driving at 70mph or so (she'll be safer, too!). That said, as the AAA study notes, while reducing speed almost always gives you more range in the summer, that's not true in the winter, since you have the heater sapping energy. The longest range was in HWFET, aka moderate-speed driving (most of the cycle wavers around 50mph or so).

 

[AudubonB]

I'm somewhat upset over this loss-of-range coverage that's been occurring; there has been a little bit of appropriate pushback in this thread but even in the appropriate sites it hasn't been properly addressed.

ALL of my diesel and gasoline vehicles suffer very obvious loss of range at low temperatures. I used to think that it should be the opposite: that increased air density would enhance combustion, but this isn't so. Unfortunately I've never kept appropriate logs to demonstrate the differences, but I know that every time I travel out of or back to Alaska, the change in efficiency is remarkable regardless of whether I'm heading southbound or north. I would say that if I were getting 19mpg with a given load in Montana, by the time I hit the Alaska Range I would be seeing 11-12mpg. That's 37-42 percent right there.

Of course, snowpack has an immediate effect. The increased rolling resistance of even hard-packed snow whacks fuel economy to a fare-thee-well.

Overall, I have the ineluctable impression that battery-powered auto drivers are supremely more conscious of their energy consumption than are their liquid fuel counterparts, and this translates to the kinds of comments we've been subjected to over the past month or so. This suggests to me that a carefully-crafted analysis of all vehicles' performance under differing weather conditions is essential.

 

[bdy0627]

I don't see how that is the case. Driving in that temperature (assuming you are using the heater) will result in about 30% drop in range. Then add in losses due to highway speeds, winds etc. This is supported by my own experience (and many other anecdotes) as well as outside studies. I saw total losses as high as 50% when dealing with 10 degree weather and 70mph in heavy wind/snow conditions.

Personally, I think EVs have more pros than cons in cold weather but range loss is sizable.

Yep. This is our experience in Wisconsin as well. Range loss is substantial with the colder weather. 40% loss has been our experience. Anyone in these parts looking at which range vehicle to buy should do so with winter driving in mind.