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They can still get a labor efficiency boost by having the car(s)/pod(s) picking up the drivers and returning them to the ship (or vice versa) be automated
:)

I'd think that, to avoid clogging their delivery pipeline, Tesla would be forced to build a mockup "ship deck" (or even use an idle Ro-Ro that's down for repairs), and drill loading and unloading until they're confident that they can get a net speed increase. Would tie up a lot of inventory.

I also agree that this is a pretty low priority item for them at this point. All the less important as they build more and more Gigafactories, and thus need to ship less. For now, it'd probably actually be a higher priority to put an extra-heavy training focus on self-driving between Fremont and Pier 80 ;) Also to drive onto car carriers automatically.
 
.........We also will find out what exponential growth really looks like when we see TE and the benefits of a distributed grid......

I completely agree that Battery Investors Day will be a wake-up call @jbcarioca - perhaps even more like a Paradigm Shift. Most of us here have followed with enthusiasm the great recent projects of Tesla Energy (TE). And while we are often critical of the 'analysts' for evaluating TSLA only through the lens of Tesla Motors (TM), it is a rather easy trap to fall into even for us because at this point TM is - and has always been - the significant contributor of TSLA = TM + TE. So in the near-term I think @SteveG3 valuation of around $600 for TSLA with only a small contribution of TE is very fair and very appropriate. But this will also change very soon IMO. Battery investor day will likely be the watershed event that unveils the Rosetta Stone for an eventual valuation where TE = TM. And I sincerely believe that long before the shares I am holding run out we will very likely see TE valued more than TM. My original investment in Tesla in 2013 was based on that very belief and I have not wavered from that belief ever since.

Let me offer a 'smaller' regional example that very likely represents the situation on a much larger scale than almost all of us are currently thinking about when we watch TSLA = TM + te at this point in time ('BIG' TM plus 'little' TE valuations). I had a conversation last week with one of the more knowledgeable folks of the Hydro generation and Grid transmission segments of the NW Hydro system, and I once again left that conversation with a firm belief that many of the NW Grid operators are still completely ignoring California and other Southwest solar + storage project's potential near-term disruption to NW generation (coal, natural gas, and some hydro) because their thinking is somehow still stuck in the Old Paradigm where 100% of the power that is generated needs to be flowing on the bigger 'main' grid transmission lines to distribute power where needed, without any thought of making that happen 'around the clock' more efficiently while providing a significant opportunity to increase the number of 'generation sources' locally in the process........ But that is obviously no longer true, and Tesla's Virtual Grid project is standing that old way of thinking on its head.

I should note that there is some reluctant acceptance of a more traditional 'Distributed Grid' from a limited perspective of some additional smaller generation spread throughout the existing NW...........but Tesla's TE has already made that line of thinking archaic IMO. The Virtual Grid - batteries in every home acting both as storage and as grid supply combined with residential and commercial rooftop solar, etc wherever possible is a vision of much greater depth and breadth than what the current vision of the 'Art of the Possible' among operators.

Understandably, nobody has enough money right now to up-size all the transmission lines and to go through permitting to add more of them through new routes on any of the major grids.............but with models like TE's Virtual Grid it really isn't necessary because it will establish the ability to store and retrieve power at the location of use and the location of generation everywhere......and it can thus allow the existing grid to actually grow the amount of energy it is capable of handling without upsizing the 'main arteries' of the system - likely saving the West Coast and NW grids alone Billions of dollars just on transmission lines (hello PG&E). TE will be bigger than TM for that reason alone IMO, because it will be cheaper for Grid operators to help enable battery storage that is combined with incentivizing local residential and commercial solar generation opportunities whenever possible at existing points of use than it will be to simply upsize the existing main grid lines. I think Vermont's Green Mountain Power had a portion of this figured out early when they offered attractive Powerwall rates to cusomers, but there was never a belief that Tesla (or anyone else) would be capable of manufacturing enough batteries to make this a reality on a massive scale. Australia's Virtual Grid is proving this out on a larger scale in the middle of a Climate Crisis......and thus IMO Elon is hungry for Terrawatt Hours of production for TE much, much more than for TM.

The TE team must have had this vision in place long ago, but needed to reach a point in time where batteries could be produced "as fast as bullets coming out of a machine gun" and then have the ability to quickly replicate that model elsewhere (China's GF3 and perhaps GF5?) before they could roll this concept out with validity to investors that are otherwise simply trying to hang on to their stranded assets (coal and natural gas plants and the fracking mess that feeds the beast). It is a watershed moment........because it is now economically advantageous to take the Virtual Grid path that will be embraced by Climate Advocates and Rate Paying Customers alike. And let's not forget that just below the surface of all this is a potential for a Green New Deal that would provide significant additional funding to make this transition at warp speed. And there is a growing recognition and acceptance that we will stay in China's rear view mirror should we fail to turn the corner and make this investment in a very timely manner. So while I recognize that my time frames have been optimistic for this in the past, I am beginning to believe that there will be more horsepower behind this Paradigm Shift than I ever originally imagined. And that is because I had naively envisioned this happening more linearly long ago. It has instead unfolded in a manner that now puts us on S-Curve heading up.........just where Elon likes to be......and where he tends to focus most of his energy when that time is reached.
 
I talked to them about that... asked ‘em if they saw the day coming where the cars would drive themselves off the trucks, park themselves, wait, and then form a line and drive themselves over to the ship, up the ramp, and onwards to a designated spot on some deck of the ship. Maybe with on-board mobile robots (think: Boston Dynamics “dog” bots... creepy) to do the final lashing to strap down the cars for the voyage. My host laughed, acknowledged it had come up in conversations about the future, but the feeling is, “very unlikely.” A LOT can and will go wrong during this work. And I agree with the workers on this. There are a lot of little decisions to make, and it takes an experienced, coordinated crew to keep the operations moving at a crisp pace. Often something comes up suddenly requiring moving cars around after they’ve been put in place on a deck, etc. Complex operation. Hey anything is possible in the future but I think at least for a long time to come this kind of work will best be left to humans to do and not timid, hesitant robo-cars.

True, but it should be possible to have the cars drive themselves from where parked to the ship ramp where a driver could hop in. It would save a lot of time if a driver didn't have to be taken to each car.

Just 3 minutes per car for 3000 cars on one ship is 150 work hours saved.
 
True, but it should be possible to have the cars drive themselves from where parked to the ship ramp where a driver could hop in. It would save a lot of time if a driver didn't have to be taken to each car.

Just 3 minutes per car for 3000 cars on one ship is 150 work hours saved.

How many tens of thousands of hours of autopilot developer time and how much tied up (and occasionally damaged) inventory do you think it would take to get to that point?
 
The author actually did a good job at getting accurate information from his sources. It's no secret that NCA is more energy dense but more volatile and shorter lived than some other lithium chemistries. We are also seeing Tesla reaching out and limiting older cars from utilizing the original pack capacity and lowering charge and regen rates. So far it's a relatively small number of vehicles but the list is growing.
The factual aspect of whether or not Tesla batteries are more energy dense is not really relevant to the point I was making. I was talking about the framing of the article.

If the journalist wanted to honestly talk about Tesla's alleged fire risk then he would have needed to cite incident rates of Teslas, other EVs and ICE vehicles. If the journalist honestly wanted to talk about Tesla's range advantage than the efficiency of their system is what is significant -- that is how Tesla can use a smaller kWh pack and get better range. But that ruins the framing the journalist was going for.

Sure, mentioning the differences in batteries would be reasonable to raise in the context of a possible reason to explain a difference in fire rates, but the reality is that as soon as you bring statistics in you realize two things:

1. Tesla vehicles catch fire significantly less frequently than ICE vehicles

2. The sample size of Teslas catching fire is too small to be that meaningful

Neither of which helps if you are trying to write a "balanced" article presenting both pros and cons.

I think a problem for any writer looking to take such journalistic shortcuts is that it is pretty hard to find actual cons when it comes to Tesla. So you have to rely on false-framing to reach the objective. Because real journalism is hard and doesn't pay well.
 
Not about to argue with you, but I did want to point out that reduced shipping is not just about direct financial costs, but also emissions costs. I believe that Musk (and Tesla) would prefer to not expend the energy on shipping around the world. Not that they have refrained from doing so, but I think it is a pressure to build locally that is missing from your analysis.

Just a thought.
Yes, absolutely emissions is a cost and concern. Improving logistical efficiency is a very important way to reduce emissions as Tesla speeds EVs to market.
 
SRPM motor is at the front for Raven S/X not at the back
We're taking about Plaid, not Raven. Plaid is a Tri-motor design, with 3 SRPM motors. One in the front (likely the same installation as Raven), and two SRPMs in back in a dual drive unit.

This powertrain was first prototyped on the new Roadster, but will put into production first on the Plaid Model S. Then likely Roadster and the Tri-motor Cybertruck.

Take away? No AC motors going forward. Common parts bin based on Tri-motor SRPM powertrain achieves economies of scale in mass production.
 
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Friend had car accident and was exploring buying car, I suggested Tesla, January normally slow month in US, I thought car would be easily available, nope, 5-8 weeks wait in NJ. With China volume Tesla actually can go above Q4 volume in Q 1, that would be epic.

Inventory is bloody out. ;) US has to wait for the overseas pipeline to get filled. And the overseas backlog is huge.

BTW, your case is far from the first I've heard like that. We even had someone the other day believing that "the factory will be down for 8 weeks" because they wouldn't be able to get their car until then. ;)
 
True, but it should be possible to have the cars drive themselves from where parked to the ship ramp where a driver could hop in. It would save a lot of time if a driver didn't have to be taken to each car.

Just 3 minutes per car for 3000 cars on one ship is 150 work hours saved.
It's not my experience that union workers want to reduce the number of work hours. ;)
Inventory is bloody out. ;) US has to wait for the overseas pipeline to get filled. And the overseas backlog is huge.

BTW, your case is far from the first I've heard like that. We even had someone the other day believing that "the factory will be down for 8 weeks" because they wouldn't be able to get their car until then. ;)
ITS BECAUSE THE FACTORY IS SHUT DOWN TESLA IS FAILING SHORT NOW NOW
 
1. Tesla vehicles catch fire significantly less frequently than ICE vehicles

2. The sample size of Teslas catching fire is too small to be that meaningful

Neither of which helps if you are trying to write a "balanced" article presenting both pros and cons.
The article compared Tesla to other EV's, discussing range, durability, and safety of the batteries. Compare the sample size of other EV's catching fire.
 
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These are good points, but being a Tesla vehicle makes the customer value proposition fundamentally different. So you got a product that has all of the tech and styling of a Tesla, it is a Tesla and uses all of Tesla's sales, service and charging channels, it is built just as well if not better than in Fremont, and the price is right. I think this is a compelling value proposition. The rest of where the vehicle was designed and built is just a branding or image kind of issue. It plays on nationalistic perceptions that actually have little to do with the product itself.

As a thought experiment, suppose Tesla were to manufacture technically equivalent Model X in US, Germany and China. While badging may indicate country of origin, the product is otherwise identical. So which one would you buy? Depending on where you live, transport costs, exchange rates and so, one place of origin may be lower cost and have quicker delivery than the others. Would you be willing to pay a premium or wait longer to receive the product from the country of your choice? Some people would. But what is that really based on? It's not the product, not the local channels that you access. More likely it's just some nationalistic stereotype that floats around in your head for which you are willing to pay a premium. If this bias is strong enough, Tesla will exploit it to extract a higher profit margin.

Yes, those nationalistic biases do exist, but do they rise to the level that Tesla can profit from them. As long as Teala is most supply constrained, logistically challenged, and competing mostly with unexciting ICE vehicles, I don't think playing to nationalistic biases is anywhere on the list of priorities for Tesla. Customers will want the best Tesla they can afford with minimal delay.

good points from Rob and jhm

didn’t Elon say at one point in 2019 he had a target of 20 million vehicles per year, or 20% market share (currently the same)? fwiw, I really liked what I heard, but, even for Tesla/Elon, realizing such a goal is nothing in any bags.

as Karen mentioned, this kind of annual volume means going down market eventually

given the likelihood of a down market vehicle from China (it's being more in keeping with the financials of a broader swath of the population in China) and adding in Rob and jhm’s points... perhaps Elon’s thinking is that the vehicle is for the massive populations hopefully continuing to move more towards being able to afford owning a vehicle in “developing countries,” as people in these countries are far more likely to be thrilled about owning an attractive car, let alone a Tesla, than concerned re buying a US/German built Tesla or a Chinese Tesla. (more or less a ‘first world problem,’ if you’ll pardon the phrase).

Elon and Tesla have a persistent habit of leveraging many compounding advantages to their problem solving.
 
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How many tens of thousands of hours of autopilot developer time and how much tied up (and occasionally damaged) inventory do you think it would take to get to that point?

Well, they are not starting from scratch and any result would be usable in a lot of situations. It's really just FSD without a driver in the car in a closed lot. So if they wanted to solve going from a parking spot to a defined point in a closed system with no other cars probably not that many tens of thousands ...

I agree they are not gonna prioritize this but it will happen eventually just from regular progression with autopilot.
 
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The article compared Tesla to other EV's, discussing range, durability, and safety of the batteries. Compare the sample size of other EV's catching fire.

You have to consider complete pack design, not only individual cell. Do some research and you will be surprised. And range affected older cars are from specific batch with not so good electrodes Tesla was implementing at that specific time.
 
as Karen mentioned, this kind of annual volume means going down market eventually

Maybe I'm just drinking the koolaid but given the robotaxi plan just don't think that is true. Whatever the timescale I think Tesla will stop selling vehicles to average consumers long before 20 million annual production. They will only sell to fleet operators and keep the rest for in-house use. Fleet operators will likely be average people at first who bought a few more Tesla than they were going to personally drive anticipating this and use the robotaxi revenue to purchase more Teslas to grow the fleet. Their business then becomes cleaning and inspecting the vechiles. It doesn't make any sense for Tesla to sell cars for less than 30k when a software package they can add at no cost to Tesla can make that vehicle produce 30k ARR
 
If the per unit ZEV bounty paid by Chrysler-PSA to Tesla is roughly around ~$10,000 estimated by @Prunesquallor is accurate (but we don't know the details of the contract), then $150m-$200m per quarter ZEV revenue assumes average quarterly European Tesla sales of 15k-20k through the next 4 years, which is very low: Q4'2019 already significantly exceeded those levels with ~30k deliveries, and then we haven't even included any GF4 sales which are supposed to start next year ...

European ZEV credits from the FCA deal (if any), are a significant wildcard for Q2'2020 financials and could be the key to S&P 500 inclusion ...

Two points here:

1) Deals like this provide benefits to both parties. Chrysler likely got a good rate on the credits and Tesla hedged against even lower prices and/or not being able to sell all their credits.

2) With the terms of the deal not being public, do we even know when the payments start? $2 billion is a lot of money and it might be to Tesla's advantage to have it recognized in a front-loaded manner. Could any of it show up in Q4?
 
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good points from Rob and jhm

didn’t Elon say at one point in 2019 he had a target of 20 million vehicles per year, or 20% market share (currently the same)? fwiw, I really liked what I heard, but, even for Tesla/Elon, realizing such a goal is nothing in any bags.

as Karen mentioned, this kind of annual volume means going down market eventually

given the likelihood of a down market vehicle from China (it's being more in keeping with the financials of a broader swath of the population in China) and adding in Rob and jhm’s points... perhaps Elon’s thinking is that the vehicle is for the massive populations hopefully continuing to move more towards being able to afford owning a vehicle in “developing countries,” as people in these countries are far more likely to be thrilled about owning an attractive car, let alone a Tesla, than concerned re buying a US/German built Tesla or a Chinese Tesla. (more or less a ‘first world problem,’ if you’ll pardon the phrase).

Elon and Tesla have a persistent habit of leveraging many compounding advantages to their problem solving.
Indeed. If we're framing this about whether global elites would prefer a luxury car imported from Germany over one from China, we are really missing the whole point of Tesla's mission. Most of the world needs a Tesla they can afford, so that's going to come in many different shapes and sizes. It may also come in commercial and public vehicles too, not just private autos.
 
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