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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The shorts are getting increasingly whiney about fwaud. "but Chanos, Soros, etc. etc. are all short! How could this be the wrong play?"
Whoops.


Quick! Everyone post faster!

One thing many small shorts following the lead of the big name shorts don't realise is that the success rate of the big names is actually quite small. They are usually running the type of strategy that VCs do when investing, in that they expect to have a massive success on maybe 10-20% of their positions, mediocre/falt returns on 20-30%, and complete losses on 50-60% of positions (or some variation of these types of numbers, sometimes its 10/10/80 split)

Someone like Chanos or Einhorn is usually only risking a relatively small percent of their portfolio on a short bet like Tesla and hoping it pays off (but is completely fine financially if the entire position ends up worthless), whereas many of the retail shorts seems to be betting unusually large amounts of their net worth on Tesla short positions under the deluded belief that the big name shorts "can't be wrong" - when in fact the big names are usually wrong on most of their short positions (in fact being often wrong is part of their strategy).
 
Errr....

How do you say

Wheeeeee!

in Martian?
@AudubonB
Would Marain do?
After all, Elon named ships after Culture ships
upload_2020-1-13_17-51-54.gif

1st column 1st glyph,
1st column 4th glyph
3rd column 2nd glyph, 3x:):cool::):D

(Omg my 4 shares at $420.69, bought 1 per day, 12/23 - 12/31, 2 weeks ago, 1 share is essentially free)
Up ~ $109 in 2 weeks, “faints”
 
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Maybe some TMC members in future could afford one of the first Eviation Alice models and Island hop over on guilt free EV flight.

Eviation | Eviation Alice

Please no. This has been my work playground for 25 years (I design airplanes) and I have never seen so many red flags pop up at once on a project as that one. By far the worst case I have ever seen, in terms of media exposure / laws of physics ratio.
 
I am not diversifying a thing. Been 150% Tesla for a year and that's the tradition in this household goldurnit

OK, so I still think you are missing out. In your previous post you said that they increased your margin maintenance requirement on TSLA from 55% to 65%, and you say you are 150% in Tesla. Let's work some numbers.

Suppose you started with $1M (round number). You bought $1.5M of Tesla, so you have $0.5M of margin loan. But the 65% margin maintenance requirement means that your equity needs to be 65% of the $1.5M, which is $975k... you're close to the edge.

Now, if you sell 25% of your TSLA (to get a little bit away from 80% concentration), and buy AAPL with it. Now your portfolio looks like:
TSLA $1.125M 75%
AAPL $0.375M 25%

But what is your margin maintenance requirement? TSLA is 35%, AAPL (like most S&P500) is 25%. So the equity you need in your account is :
TSLA $1.125M 75% MMR $411,250
AAPL $0.375M 25% MMR $ 93,750
total MMR $505k. That's only just over half of the $1M you put into your account. You can nearly double your investment in both stocks using your margin account. Of course it's riskier, and you owe the broker twice as much, but if you're that aggressive you could easily have $2M in TSLA and $600K in AAPL with your initial $1M investment. With those numbers you have just about 77% in TSLA, but have 1/3rd more TSLA stock! Not to mention a significant stake in AAPL (or some other large cap stock, like BA or GM or...) for free. And a $1.6M margin loan, but hey, you're the aggressive one...
 
Tesla Shorts Down $1.25 Billion in Mark-to-Market Losses – Shortsight.com

Elon Musk has more shares than they’ve sold… 34 million against their 25 million or so.

Today they lost $1.25B, while Musk made $1.58B.

Because of their respective intentions, this looks to be a very good thing.

With 2020 losses mounting, we should see a continuation and probably an acceleration of Tesla’s multi-month short squeeze. Short sellers with lower P&L pain thresholds will be the first to cover along with shorts looking to call the top of Tesla’s present rally. The long-term Tesla shorts with strong convictions will most certainly hang on the longest.

Today’s price move should produce enough short covering to threaten the four and a half year low of 24.2 million shares shorted on January 28th, 2019. The next low point would be 23.8 million shares shorted in July of 2015. If the long-term Tesla shorts begin to capitulate the 20 million shares shorted level of July 2013 would be the next milestone to fall.

Since 2016, when we started calculating short-side data, Tesla shorts are down -$11.44 billion in net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L. The recent rally may be the final tipping point for the mother of all short squeezes. If shorts begin to cover in size, expect the Tesla rally to get turbo charged to even higher levels.

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S3 Partners
 
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CNBC - hour ago:

CNBQ on Youtube | "Tesla's biggest bull explains why his price target is $612"

Yeah, it's not too hard to figure out how they came up with their price target:

TSLA at $612 is exactly 10% above the SP where Elon still earns his 1st tranche:

$556.36 * 1.1 = $612​

They're just allowing some headroom for any pull-back, and Elon still gets his well-earned payday.

"Easy-peasy Lemon-squeezie"

Cheers!
 
I'm happy/fortunate to have been active on this thread for the past 2-3 years. Lots of great insight, that helped me add and stay committed.
(No longer can actively participate during the day(work), but trying to stay up to date on this thread)

Good Luck and Good Fortunes to all Longs

Since Jan I am sure many have more than yearly/multi year salaries in their account.
 
With 2020 losses mounting, we should see a continuation and probably an acceleration of Tesla’s multi-month short squeeze. Short sellers with lower P&L pain thresholds will be the first to cover along with shorts looking to call the top of Tesla’s present rally. The long-term Tesla shorts with strong convictions will most certainly hang on the longest.

Today’s price move should produce enough short covering to threaten the four and a half year low of 24.2 million shares shorted on January 28th, 2019. The next low point would be 23.8 million shares shorted in July of 2015. If the long-term Tesla shorts begin to capitulate the 20 million shares shorted level of July 2013 would be the next milestone to fall.

Since 2016, when we started calculating short-side data, Tesla shorts are down -$11.44 billion in net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L. The recent rally may be the final tipping point for the mother of all short squeezes. If shorts begin to cover in size, expect the Tesla rally to get turbo charged to even higher levels.

-
S3 Partners

I'm personally hoping that a short squeeze doesn't happen until Q4 earnings. If the catalyst is the Q4 earnings and Q1 and full year 2020 guidance, it will make the gains from the short squeeze much more sustainable...…….and more hurt for shorts ;)
 
Wow, what a day. I’m so glad I saw the price target upgrade before I went to work and moved some sell limits way up. I’m hoping to sell a few of my 6/19 680 calls I bought as a total bet right before the cyber reveal. I should lock in a 250% gain while keeping 25 more contracts for what might be a massive payday in a few weeks. Worst case, I’m still up considerably, best case I buy my way out of this hellish basement apartment I’ve been in for years and buy a nice downtown condo outright.