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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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In the spirit of "pride goeth before the fall" I'd like to suggest a little less strutting and preening here. Any idiot can make money when the stock he's bullish on goes up and up and up. We're all pleased, but we're not all suddenly geniuses.

If you're an actual trading genius, please tell me when we're about to see TSLA drop more than 10%. And no, it doesn't count if you tell me afterwards.

Aha! A little bitter perhaps?

To tell you the honest truth, who really gives a FF if it drops 10%, LOL!

People are so short-sighted they can't get out of their own way.
 
I am a small investor, I have no idea what I am doing but I believe in the product and their future of Tesla. Right now I have 30k in cash that is been sitting doing nothing when Tesla was at $400. I didn't buy any more because I have 15% of my stock market investments in TSLA but now I feel like I am missing out on a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Well, I reduced to ~88%, and @SpaceCash has talked about being 150%. Unless you need stability in your investment, 15% seems low enough to increase your position at least a little. Of course, I'm not you and your needs may be different. You have to be prepared for the stock to crater and not sell as doing so would realize losses.

In the end, it matters what your comfort levels are ($TSLA is volatile) and what your needs are. I see the talk about making out like bandits on options, but I can't bring myself to do it. Way too risky for my taste and while some are making good money right now, a year ago it was a different story.

In short, you really have to weigh it out yourself. But I would say the more FOMO that was involved in a trade the worse I've done for it. Don't let FOMO drive a decision.
 
So whats the over/under on where we are opening tomorrow?

If there are no significant news I'll say 540.

I promise to post less today so you can all keep up. Sorry I went overboard yesterday. Not everyday I make 4 months pay in a day.

I just want to ask if any of you with connections can forward this to one of those fund things and ask if I can get one of those $500.000/year jobs.

Please hurry though. In another few weeks I might not be interested.
 
Aha! A little bitter perhaps?

To tell you the honest truth, who really gives a FF if it drops 10%, LOL!

People are so short-sighted they can't get out of their own way.
I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain he was talking about all of the options winnings victory laps here. Which, as others have pointed out, are timing sensitive and could have failed to make any more. And that this is often case. So, yeah, I think someone deep in short term options with high strikes will give a FF if it drops enough to take away their profits.

Me? I'm happy with up and I'm happy with down because I'm confident that in the long run it is up and I'm buying and holding.
 
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If the SP goes up too fast, conventional wisdom would say that it would be followed by a big dip.

But that might not happen if the price the SP tops out at is not much more than fair value.

I, personally wouldn’t be concerned that the SP had risen way past fair value if it rose quickly to $1000. Beyond that, I would be taking steps in anticipation of a big pullback.

Each of us should have our own number in our head of what price is supportable by fundamental value.
 
Freemont is at a production rate of 420k a year production before model y, which is going to run on it's own line. Giga 3 will likely make at least 100k this year and more likely 200k. 600k is a lot more reasonable than 450 to 480k

I am guessing 2020 deliveries to show a YoY growth of 50%, i.e. about 550k.

While extrapolating current US production and expected GF3 production could yield higher numbers I expect a continued and already massive 50% YoY growth to be the limit, since with such growth new challenges will occur.
 
In the spirit of "pride goeth before the fall" I'd like to suggest a little less strutting and preening here. Any idiot can make money when the stock he's bullish on goes up and up and up. We're all pleased, but we're not all suddenly geniuses.

If you're an actual trading genius, please tell me when we're about to see TSLA drop more than 10%. And no, it doesn't count if you tell me afterwards.
You are half right; we are not SUDDENLY geniuses, we were geniuses the whole time. I find it strange that your FUD is tolerated on this esteemed board of winners o_O
 
Teslaquila is coming! Remember Elon said they are just finishing up on getting the glass right. I think we're going to see that "bulletproof" look. The bottle will sport that marque. Well, two marques. :D

This will guarantee a huge number of display only sales. So a limited edition of half a million bottles at $99/bottle. It will sell out in a few days at most. A quick $50M - COGS. Plus everybody talks about it.
We should all get a bottle and have a virtual toast when the stock hit $1000.
 
I am a small investor, I have no idea what I am doing but I believe in the product and their future of Tesla. Right now I have 30k in cash that is been sitting doing nothing when Tesla was at $400. I didn't buy any more because I have 15% of my stock market investments in TSLA but now I feel like I am missing out on a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Whatever opportunity you missed is completely irrelevant. You need to re-evaluate Tesla’s future prospects from it’s current position. I along with many others here, believe there’s a very high probability TSLA will grow on average 30%-100% per year even from here. It’s currently worth $100B, but it’s future worth can easily exceed Amazon/Apple which are valued over 10X as much as Tesla.

All that matters is where you go from here. Are you ok with stock drops as long as the company remains on track? What percentage of your assets are you willing to place in 1 company? What is your plan if it rises, or falls?
 
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If the SP goes up too fast, conventional wisdom would say that it would be followed by a big dip.

But that might not happen if the price the SP tops out at is not much more than fair value.

I, personally wouldn’t be concerned that the SP had risen way past fair value if it rose quickly to $1000. Beyond that, I would be taking steps in anticipation of a big pullback.

Each of us should have our own number in our head of what price is supportable by fundamental value.

Agree. One nit. Tesla will settle at what the average of the big fund managers believe is the fair value. It will not settle at the real fair value. The fund managers are not technologically savvy and have very little appreciation how wide the gap is between Tesla and other Automakers. They still nearly 100% discount Tesla Energy and Autonomy.

For those who do not currently Watch Dave Lee’s (@DaveT ), excellent videos, please do. He’s lays out a convincing case that the retail investors are relatively meaningless and it is only the large funds that determine the share price price.
 
Sold 1/5 of my shares here ($542), after selling my first 1/5 at $420. Collectively that moves TSLA from about 95% of my portfolio down to 60%.

I'm very bullish long term but this price is getting high so it seems prudent to step back to a level where I'm more comfortable riding out the peaks and dips. Also, the stock has done what I wanted it to. I have 2-3x my initial investment to build a decent nest egg that I can now afford to be more careful with.
 
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