Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Rammstein]

I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s

This sounds like there is a very good chance for a profitable Q1 and S&P inclusion!

 

[KarenRei]

What's the weather forecast for Shortsville right now?

It's going to be getting cold and snowy in Shortsville

 

[Nocturnal]

Wait, it can go down?

I couldn't resist, grabbed another 6 shares when it dipped to 523.

It also sounds like China is nearly sold out for Q1. I read that all black and red cars are taken, with some blue and silver left.

 

[larmor]

Semi-pain

 

[Prunesquallor]

The orange is hard to read at least for me. Maybe blue?

Agree. I don’t think I’m borderline color-blind, but that orange on a white background is painful to read.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wait, it can go down?

I couldn't resist, grabbed another 6 shares when it dipped to 523.

It also sounds like China is nearly sold out for Q1. I read that all black and red cars are taken, with some blue and silver left.

Blah, I put a buy order for 32 at $520, but it didn't quite make it that far... I'm leaving it there for the moment - just needs Trump to fart while signing the China agreement and macros will tank.

 

[electrichapp]

battery component supply chain secured?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[UncaNed]

I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s

Perhaps clearing inventory was planned before they introduce something new across the board like a better battery or something?

 

[StealthP3D]

In other news, Pennsylvania's government is a shambles (multiple top government officials making fun of Musk on Twitter).

Pennsylvania Treasury. on Twitter
John Fetterman on Twitter

You would think they would LOVE Musk in coal country. I mean, anyone who builds a bunch of high-performance cars that can run on coal should probably be given a key to every coal town in the State and celebrated as a coal hero!

 

[Nocturnal]

Coming from coal country you would think they would LOVE Musk. I mean, anyone who builds a bunch of high-performance cars that can run on coal should probably be given a key to every coal town in the State and celebrated as a coal hero!

Their general "I don't like anything green/liberal" philosophy trumps (no pun intended) their self interest.

 

[printf42]

Tesla in Talks to Buy Glencore Cobalt for Shanghai Car Plant
Amazing they just ignored the real news here:

Tesla is going to be making cells in Shanghai themselves instead of buying for others.

Which is big news for people outside of this forum.

Reporters are just clueless.

 

[theschnell]

Odd, because we know this not to be true....this was shared in the oil thread for those that don't go in there:

Why Is Warren Buffett Ditching His Coal Plants? | OilPrice.com

WOW!!!! In my opinion the above article is a must read for all Tesla investors. I had no idea renewables were cheap enough already or in the very near future to compete with existing fully depreciated or nearly fully depreciated coal plants were the only cost is fuel and operations! That is incredible! Demand for battery storage is about to explode! I already knew that, but did not fully appreciate to what degree that explosion would be. Dramatically underestimated it actually.

 

[KarenRei]

battery component supply chain secured?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Irony alert - remember that "Tesla is responsible for Congo childrens' deaths" lawsuit which was flawed for numerous reasons - not simply because by all standards the artisinal mines at Kamoto were illegal mines that Kamoto (which Glencore indirectly owns) had been trying to drive out (even having to get the military involved), but more importantly, because there was no evidence out there that Tesla buys Glencore cobalt at all?

The fact that Tesla just now negotiated with Glencore to buy cobalt for GF3 seems to basically confirm that they weren't buying from them previously.

Note: if Tesla buys from Glencore, they will be buying Congo cobalt. That said, Glencore is generally seen as the "respectable" producer in the Congo. They're a British company and run large industrial mines, mine with industrial mining equipment, use large scale processing plants, etc. You're much more likely to use artisanal cobalt buying from Chinese suppliers (regardless of where they claim it comes from) than buying from Glencore.

I wonder what processor they'll use to make their cathode powders? A lot of Glencore's cobalt goes through Umicore, but in China I imagine they'll either use a local processor or do it in-house.

 

[Todd Burch]

We'z gonna end green today.

 

[lklundin]

Tesla in Talks to Buy Glencore Cobalt for Shanghai Car Plant
Amazing they just ignored the real news here:

Tesla is going to be making cells in Shanghai themselves instead of buying for others.

Which is big news for people outside of this forum.

Reporters are just clueless.

I agree that the journalist does not understand the ramifications.

However, it would be strange if Tesla China imports cobalt, given that cobalt cannot legally be exported from China.

Instead I would expect Tesla to also get contracts for Chinese Cobalt (that fewer competitors can bid on) for GF3, and then use the non-Chinese Cobalt for non-Chinese GFs.

PS. I tried to find a source for my above claim, but instead I cannot find any indication that cobalt exporting from China is regulated. Apologies for the apparent misinformation.

 

[Nocturnal]

In shortland today:
- spending lots of time adding people to their bubble list
- Tesla is pushing all warranty repairs to good will so they can do accounting fwaud and avoid lemon laws
- demand in Europe for EVs has collapsed.
-because one of the Eletrek guys sold his stock it means the end is nigh
I don't know for sure, but I'm also pretty sure they will be huffing paint today as well.

WOW!!!! In my opinion the above article is a must read for all Tesla investors. I had no idea renewables were cheap enough already or in the very near future to compete with existing fully depreciated or nearly fully depreciated coal plants were the only cost is fuel and operations! That is incredible! Demand for battery storage is about to explode! I already knew that, but did not fully appreciate to what degree that explosion would be. Dramatically underestimated it actually.

Yup. I work with utilities and several years ago even the generation folks were telling me that Wind was at cost parity with coal before subsidies. It's really stupid to build a coal plant right now.

People don't change opinions easily. A person hears something 10 years ago about how solar or wind isn't cost effective and they don't understand how fast technology changes. ​

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Tesla in Talks to Buy Glencore Cobalt for Shanghai Car Plant
Amazing they just ignored the real news here:

Tesla is going to be making cells in Shanghai themselves instead of buying for others.

Which is big news for people outside of this forum.

Reporters are just clueless.

Hmm, they had stated goals to move away from Cobalt entirely... I’m guessing that’s no longer in the cards? (Otherwise, weird to buy a company specifically for that)

 

[StealthP3D]

MM's and shorty trying to spook the stock in pre-market?

TBH, the good news is so overwhelming and now BRock changing strategy too, I franky find it ridiculous that it's red.

It's completely normal for stocks on an upward trajectory to trade in the red periodically. It would be ridiculous if it was never in the red! The good news has been steady and powerful but stocks never trade in straight lines.

I'm actually more concerned that the little micro-corrections are not sharper to the downside than the fact we are trading a little in the red. Hopefully, that is just an indication that there are a lot of short positions with their fingers hovering over the "buy to cover" button. Because normal trading in the middle of a run-up like this would have larger moves to the downside before heading higher.

 

[Tslynk67]

Irony alert - remember that "Tesla is responsible for Congo childrens' deaths" lawsuit which was flawed for numerous reasons - not simply because by all standards the artisinal mines at Kamoto were illegal mines that Kamoto (which Glencore indirectly owns) had been trying to drive out, but more importantly, because there was no evidence out there that Tesla buys Glencore cobalt at all?

The fact that Tesla is now negotiating with Glencore to buy cobalt for GF3 from Glencore seems to basically confirm that they weren't buying from them previously.

Note: if Tesla buys from Glencore, they will be buying Congo cobalt. That said, Glencore is generally seen as the "respectable" producer in the Congo. They're a British company and run large industrial mines, mine with industrial mining equipment, use large scale processing plants, etc. You're much more likely to use artisanal cobalt buying from Chinese suppliers (regardless of where they claim it comes from) than buying from Glencore.

I would hope very much that the terms of the contract will include guarantees and oversight of working conditions, etc., and that Tesla will be very forthcoming with publicising it.

Hopefully they can be a catalyst to improve conditions, the same way as I believe Apple have been with their Foxconn relationship.

 

[mongo]

Hmm, they had stated goals to move away from Cobalt entirely... I’m guessing that’s no longer in the cards? (Otherwise, weird to buy a company specifically for that)

They still need to build cells in the near term while working on the longer term cobalt free version.