Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

What if Larry Fink came out with the announcement yestday (shift to renewables) at the same time as he stopped buying TSLA for now?

If Blackrock was a large part of the cause of the runup, then we might be under test for strength by shorts this morning.

Just a theory...

 

[thx1139]

Regarding small form factor teslas:

As a UK driver, I can see theoretical enormous appeal for such a car. our roads are super narrow, our car parking spaces are tiny, and we aren't a nation of people towing boats around after us. a small car, even a 2 door tesla, would be theoretically very popular here.

HOWEVER

There are likely big technical challenges in making a smaller car, because people generally don't spend a LOT of money on a small car. My old lexus CT200h was £25,000 and thats a luxury car (think maybe $31k).

CT200h dimensions:
4,350 mm L x 1,765 mm W x 1,445 mm H

I can't see people spending more than $35k top on a CT200h sized tesla, and thats a luxury interior 4 door car, even given autopilot and so on.
...which means as an investor, i think there is a LOT of mileage in sticking with the S,X,3,Y lineup for quite a while. Tesla already sell every car they make, and thats without even including the Y. There are a LOT of jaguars and Mercedes and Aston Martins that should be replaced by the model S or X. There are a stupid number of audit and BMWs that should be replaced by the 3 or Y.

I would love to see a small form factor 'budget' tesla. I just think that without absolutely INSANE expansion, they are not going to hit the limits of S,3,X,Y sales for a long time, certainly a good few years.
It probably makes sense to really crunch the performance of batteries for a few more years before trying to make small form factor anyway. Plus more infrastructure in terms of charging points will be available then.

A smaller compact car Tesla is really for most people a commuter car, so I suspect with smaller dimensions also makes shorter range viable. So the base version likely can be 200 mile range or maybe even less. That along with continued battery cost reductions makes the pricing more viable not to mention savings on maintenance and fuel.

 

[Lessmog]

Finger was hovering over the sell button at 525, I almost rage sold lol, then I saw the volume. It was the MOAMMD

Bad investor, don't cut off your own feet!

My fingering was hovering at $525 as well, only I bought 50 more shares.

Sorry, your... what?

As I remember it, Gene is a fiddler? (as if that helps )

 

[Tslynk67]

I use the Apple stock app to view the macros, but it doesn't show after hours trading. Does anyone have a link to a good website for viewing overall market activity after hours?

IMO, the CNBC iOS app is the best for AH/PM as it shows the volumes too - don't think the Yahoo does that?

 

[printf42]

What if Larry Fink came out with the announcement yestday (shift to renewables) at the same time as he stopped buying TSLA for now?

If Blackrock was a large part of the cause of the runup, then we might be under test for strength by shorts this morning.

Just a theory...

If that is the case, I hope Elon won’t try another going private at 840.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Will news on the Solar Roof ramp be the one more thing at Q4 ER?

 

[KarenRei]

Regarding small form factor teslas:

As a UK driver, I can see theoretical enormous appeal for such a car. our roads are super narrow, our car parking spaces are tiny, and we aren't a nation of people towing boats around after us. a small car, even a 2 door tesla, would be theoretically very popular here.

HOWEVER

There are likely big technical challenges in making a smaller car, because people generally don't spend a LOT of money on a small car. My old lexus CT200h was £25,000 and thats a luxury car (think maybe $31k).

CT200h dimensions:
4,350 mm L x 1,765 mm W x 1,445 mm H

I can't see people spending more than $35k top on a CT200h sized tesla, and thats a luxury interior 4 door car, even given autopilot and so on.
...which means as an investor, i think there is a LOT of mileage in sticking with the S,X,3,Y lineup for quite a while. Tesla already sell every car they make, and thats without even including the Y. There are a LOT of jaguars and Mercedes and Aston Martins that should be replaced by the model S or X. There are a stupid number of audit and BMWs that should be replaced by the 3 or Y.

I would love to see a small form factor 'budget' tesla. I just think that without absolutely INSANE expansion, they are not going to hit the limits of S,3,X,Y sales for a long time, certainly a good few years.
It probably makes sense to really crunch the performance of batteries for a few more years before trying to make small form factor anyway. Plus more infrastructure in terms of charging points will be available then.

Agreed with all of this. The small car segment expects a lower price point, which EVs really can't give them the way an ICE can. With an ICE, you give it a smaller, cheaper engine, you save money on the body, and you deliver a lower price point. With an EV, the smaller form factor only helps your battery budget in city driving; on the highway it can even work against you, unless you reduce the cross section (which most buyers don't like; they want the car short, but still want height (and moderate width)). And Tesla would hurt its brand if it delivers a car with unimpressive stats for its price point. We're rallying because of the perception of Tesla as an uncatchable dominator in this tech space, and this perception drives sales, too.

There's a number of more radical engineering solutions which Tesla could pursue, and probably is looking into, but probably OT for this thread.

 

[jbcarioca]

A smaller compact car Tesla is really for most people a commuter car, so I suspect with smaller dimensions also makes shorter range viable. So the base version likely can be 200 mile range or maybe even less. That along with continued battery cost reductions makes the pricing more viable not to mention savings on maintenance and fuel.

Actually that might be valid for the US. In most of Europe, Asia and South America that category includes some of the most popular longer distances uses. Premium versions in this category are among the most profitable ones also. Remember China is by far the world's largest auto market.

 

[Singer3000]

the path to $6000 is going to involve days with huge gains in a single day. One sea change day will be when FSD reaches a point it can be done without a person in the car. That day could be a bigger gain then the current value of the stock today.

Interesting to think how this would come about. Autonomy Investor Day 1 didn’t do much good for TSLA though it did coincide with Uber’s poor IPO. Are we expecting an Autonomy Investor Day 2 this year upon “feature complete”?

Or can Elon not be bothered with this and will just unleash a finished product?

What would they have to show at such an event to convince the market enough for an overnight bounce of +$100bn (and convince sceptics like He Who Shall Not Be Named Formerly Of This Parish)?

 

[ZeApelido]

Sorry, this is getting ridiculous. This is what you wrote and which I disagreed with:



No, neither of those cars has a "mostly vertical opening starting at near the peak roof-line of the vehicle", and certainly not the Citroën 11CV, unless you consider 65° "mostly vertical".

The Honda Civic example you cited is particularly ridiculous:

Yes, it has a vertical part as pretty much any vehicle that has a rear, and no, it's nowhere near a mostly vertical opening starting at the "peak roofline" of the vehicle - half of it is angled, half of it mostly vertical.

Nor do 99.9% of people who use the term 'liftback' know what 'flow detachment means', let alone are able to tell where it occurs. They use the poorly defined term "liftback" for a modern hatchback that doesn't look too boxy in the rear. Over 95% of modern hatchbacks are such.

Manufacturers started using the "liftback" term mostly for marketing purposes, to deassociate modern, more streamlined hatchbacks from old hatchbacks that look ugly.

It's not a technical term. If you search for "hatchback vs. liftback" one of the top hits is going to be this:

Difference between a liftback and hatchback

"They are one of the same 'Liftback' was the USA/Far East name for the 'hatchback' (European name) basically."​

Which is what I was trying to stress from the very beginning: it's semantics and cultural. It doesn't matter, and nobody uses the flow detachment definition in any case ...

I do agree that whatever hatchback/liftback Tesla is going to design, it will have an excellent Cd with minimal flow detachment.

Please stop fighting Mom and Dad.

 

[jeewee3000]

Interesting to think how this would come about. Autonomy Investor Day 1 didn’t do much good for TSLA though it did coincide with Uber’s poor IPO. Are we expecting an Autonomy Investor Day 2 this year upon “feature complete”?

At Autonomy Day Elon said he would like to do a yearly update on the FSD-front, to show developments in software/hardware/deep learning ...

So my guess is Battery Day in first half of 2020 and Autonomy update by the end of 2020.

 

[ggies07]

I was getting optimistic until I watched Fink saying he believes that natural gas plays a very large role in energy transition. It's at about 1:20

Odd, because we know this not to be true....this was shared in the oil thread for those that don't go in there:

Why Is Warren Buffett Ditching His Coal Plants? | OilPrice.com

PacifiCorp did not propose the usual utility solution: to replace the coal units with gas-fired stations. The company intends to shutter 8,100 MW of coal generation and replace them with wind, solar and battery storage.

 

[BornToFly]

I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s

 

[Swampgator]

I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s

Yes, zero inventory on hand for all three models within 200 miles of my location (SW FL)
Delivery estimates for Model 3 5-10 weeks depending on Model. Tesla clearly has stopped building cars due to lack of demand

#Bankwupt!

 

[StealthP3D]

Good to hear finally someone from the Analysts community acknowledging he has been wrong about Tesla

He believes that Tesla's competitive positioning is "awesome" but he wouldn't be buying the stock right now due to valuation.

That is eerily similar to what I was hearing out of most MSFT analysts back in the early 1990s!

There is a reason analysts end up in this situation. If you have been telling your clients NOT to buy a stock at $200 and then turn around and tell them to buy it at $530, well, it just looks worse than saying it's a great company with room to grow but it's over-priced.

 

[Todd Burch]

MMD.

 

[scaesare]

It's the propaganda combined with blockage of outside information technique that was employed with success by totalitarian regimes during the twentieth century, until it failed. And that was actually the mimicking of the techniques of older and wider mind control institutions.

I suspect you are right that the perpetrators in the present case know better, but are paid messengers of those with large vested interests in long established industries now threatened by disruptive innovation.

Likely. Or it's often very difficult for people with strong motives to even understand people can have entirely different motivations.

IOW: If they are being deliberately manipulative, they cannot imagine other folks are not.

 

[printf42]

If that is the case, I hope Elon won’t try another going private at 840.

But I won’t mind him preparing a proposal for us to vote down.

PS: Shorts getting emotional because Elon mocking them.
Which is good IMO, pile more chips in, please!

 

[scaesare]

What's the weather forecast for Shortsville right now?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

What if Larry Fink came out with the announcement yestday (shift to renewables) at the same time as he stopped buying TSLA for now?

If Blackrock was a large part of the cause of the runup, then we might be under test for strength by shorts this morning.

Just a theory...

100%

Fortunately, the run up alone has now created it's own pressure as other big institutionals pile in and shorts still have to cover.