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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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to me, the name of this new model jumps out as plain as day... the Model 6000
Lol, thought u were going to suggest the 2042 Model 6000SUX :eek:

i004112.jpg


ED-209:
Please put down your weapon. You have 20 seconds to comply.

Dick Jones:
I think you'd better do as he says, Mr. Kinney.

Cheers!
 
I’ve been in and out of some Tesla shares, but I bought first at 30 a share and have stayed invested since then. regarding getting in and out on other stocks I have 3 lessons. I sold MCI and saved a few thousand dollars. I patted myself on the back. I sold a few thousand dollars with of Apple about the same time. I thought I was very wise. The 200 shares would have become 5600 shares at 300 or so a share. It was hard to see any advantage apple had, other then Steve Jobs. Looking at Tesla today, it has a visionary leader and is much more like 2009 apple then 1998 apple. So the lesson to me is to not worry about Tuesday’s or Adam Jonas or other bumps in the road. If someone builds a mousetrap even close to Tesla, I’ll unload some shares. In the meantime, I’ll watch the show and enjoy the ride.

I strongly agree. I don't give much weight to Adam Jonas. Last time he said "Tesla will sell 0.17 million EVs in China in 2030". China is planning to switch to 100% EV by 2030, which means Tesla will only take 0.6% of China's EV market in 2030 based on Jonas's logic. That's just ridiculous. Tesla probably will take 40~50% market. Tesla has everything in place, it will not be easy to compete with Tesla.

Tesla is most likely a 20~30 bagger within the next 10 years.
 
Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Twitter

I think this is what they're on about. I dont venture into that cesspool.

OT: I think his book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder is a phenomenal read
And his book ‘The black swan’ should be mandatory reading for every investor.
He ‘s probably complaining out of principle, because financially he made a fortune with his bet on a black swan event.
 
"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does.

Yeah, except once side believes in innovation and a better future, the others believe in whatever conspiracy they can conjure on any given day.

Seriously, these claims of fraud are just ridiculous, even if there were some accounting tricks in the books (name me a company that doesn't do that), they don't amount to fraud - the fact that Tesla will likely sell over half a million cars this year is the proof.

And Autopilot being "near homicidal" - what universe do these people live in? Sure it's dangerous if you tape an orange to the wheel and climb in the back seat, but try doing that with another car without Autopilot (put a brick on the gas pedal) and report back to me on how it went, if you can...

Then we have the while "surviving on subsidy" nonsense, which completely fails to address the fact that fossil fuels receive much higher subsidies than EV's and renewables.

Any normal, rational human being would understand this. I'm pretty sure that the shorties can't all be *that* stupid, which just leads me once again to the conclusion that the ring-leaders are funded by nefarious interests.

Still, short term pain some days, long term will increase out profits, more fool them.

Or people's egos don't let them admit when they are wrong...

Oil money is funding a lot of dubious journalism and blogs trying to slow down the transition to EVs and Renewable Energy in general...

Shorts can be funded in part by people in this camp for partially ideological and partially financial reasons.

Another large group is Solar City shorts who were cruelly robbed of win and are chasing past losses, for this group ego is a problem...

There are also Wall Street professional types and investment fund managers who having formed a negative opinion on Tesla and bet with their money they also can't admit they are wrong...

To these people who still retain a conviction, $540 to them looks like $180 did to us, the only difference is they are chasing previous losses and ego is also an issue.

Then there is short term manipulation due to options expiry which is temporary, and possibly walks both sides of the street....

I don't really care if shorts continue to remain all in, it is their money (or in some cases their clients money)....

Apart from short term price movements and options trading, there is no real long term effect on Tesla or Tesla shareholders...

If you are trading options you need to be aware highly motivated, perhaps ego driven money, is playing for the other team...
 
I tried to check if it’s the same in my Model S but it only shows the idle fees per supercharger,, probably because I have free supercharging. I’ll check on my wife’s Model 3 when she’s back home.

So I checked my wife’s Model 3 and indeed there is some variation in pricing, but the max range between cheapest and most expensive (within the same country) was only 2 cents/kWh, so basically a trivial amount. I checked chargers in NL, BE, D, F, SP. I didn’t get pricing for Portugal or Italy.
 
I take BlackRock seriously. Potentially a big deal is happening between Tesla and BlackRock.


"Elon: To some degree, Battery Day will be kind of like a Master Plan Part 3. Which is like, okay, how do we get in the tens of gigawatt-hours per year to multiple terawatt-hours per year. That’s a pretty giant scale increase. That’s like increase by roughly 100. If we’re like at 28 gigawatt-hours right now — well, actually, there’s more than that if you count the factories in Japan. So, call it like a little over 30, 35 or something like that. How do we get to like 2 terawatt-hours a year … so, two order of magnitude increase?"

(from the Q2 2019 earnings call)

Elon Musk Talks Tesla Terawatt-Hours. We Run Some Numbers. | CleanTechnica
 
Tesla New Car Registrations Rise Again in China Despite Slowdown

Tesla Inc.’s new car registrations climbed again in China last month to the highest since March despite a slowdown in the wider auto market.

Registrations of Tesla vehicles rose to 6,643 in December, according to state-backed China Automotive Information Net, which gathers industry data based on insurance purchases.
Oh I thought Tesla was going to struggle due to the slowing auto market in China...shame. Guess they were waiting to buy the right one.
 
Looks like Tesla recently released their Q4'19 safety report.

View attachment 501164

It's starting to become apparent now that there's a fair bit of seasonality involved in these numbers.

I'm kind of disappointed by the huge drop in "Tesla Autopilot" tbh, but I guess it is still up YoY... slightly.


In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.64 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.*

*Note: Since we released our last quarterly safety report, NHTSA has released new data, which we’ve referenced in this quarter’s report.
 
The Ron Baron fund initiates a 1 to 2 % of capital position and keeps it as far as I know.
An initial position size constraint makes sense, not so much limiting the
Growth thereafter. That is my point. Buffett practically never sells.

If ARK had 80% in their fund in TSLA or some other company, then potential investors could say : "thank you for your research, but I can buy TSLA on my own. To attract investors they need to sell their winners. In economics this is usually called agency risk or cost: I.e. the agent does not just what is best for their customers for a fair price, but they represent their own partially contrary interest as well. Same story with the much less serious Gerber.

Indeed.

Buffett avoids agency risk by dominantly buying entire companies, or taking out huge stakes in the companies that are too large for them to buy - so that investors can only take part in the gains by buying BRK.A or BRK.B:
  • either the shares are not public at all,
  • or Buffett's stake is so large that:
    • the investor would risk a big drop in the price if Buffett reduces his stake, which he'll do in secret,
    • the investor would also miss out on the initial increase in the share price when Berkshire Hathaway invests in a company.
Buffett also primarily buys discounted cash flow from undervalued rent seeking companies under temporary distress, not innovators like ARK. I think Cathie, Tasha and the other ARK analysts would bore themselves to death if all they did was to search out and patiently acquire discounted monopolies. :D

Btw., I half expected Buffett to buy a big chunk of TSLA when it dropped below $200 - it's the obvious next big quasi-monopoly and he owns other EV stakes, but he didn't.
 
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CH.jpg


The Swiss PEV market is up 82% in 2019, by registering 17.176 units, with the PEV share ending at a record 5,5%, with December sales going through the roof, to a record 3.584 units, up 172% YoY and an amazing 14% share!

In the manufacturers ranking, Switzerland is Tesla turf (35%), with BMW (10%) managing to beat Renault (10%) to 2nd place, by a measely 12 units, while Hyundai (7%) ended in the 4th position.


EV Sales: Switzerland December 2019
 
paint shop would have costed $150 million? That’s a lot of savings.

High-tech paint shop, welding lines, stamping machines, durable high precision stamping dies made from extreme alloys (probably initiated with single-crystal casting and the very hard material painstakingly worked down to specification in a process that takes up to a year) - these are like 80% of the equipment capex of a new Tesla factory, and they have significant lead time ...

The Cybertruck's bending machine, a few welding robots plus a tent assembly line can be air-dropped into the middle of the desert and be brought to production within a few days. :D

Just kidding, I'm sure there's more to it - but still it's much simpler and a lot faster to deploy, plus the chassis can be changed anytime via mostly software changes, as there's no "new set of stamping dies" to worry about.
 
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Rumors from since deleted tweets from someone rando "evbite" said Model Y deliveries to start in March. (sales?) staff being flown in to CA for prepping. Not allowed to bring phones or something.

Could be bs but FYI...

"evbite.com" (Twitter handle EVBites) is a small EV topical site, run by a Model S owner, and the non-deleted tweets are interesting too:

EVBite on Twitter

"Supposedly Y/3 are running full speed ahead and S/X have been slowed down to move around resources."
EVBite on Twitter

"From my understanding some 3 lines have been temporarily converted to Y"​

Note that while the tweet got deleted, someone replied to it confirming that "he saw it on the factory" tour:

Javier I. on Twitter

"Saw it myself today on the factory tour"

"It’s public knowledge Y is being built there. It’s just an area that has plastic covers."
So this sounds potentially legit to me.

Here's another tweet that got deleted:

EVBite on Twitter

Reply to deleted tweet: "I’m not sure it’s a matter of HW3 computer availability but the time required for retrofits. They need to speed up the process, or have techs where the only thing they do is retrofits."

Third reply by EVBites: "According my source it’s not an issue of time rather supply. They just arnt getting any in. Barely doing any retrofits currently"​

I presume the first tweet was about HW3 retrofits slowing down. He apparently has a source inside Tesla and maybe deleted the tweets to protect the source.

Here's a @ValueAnalyst reply to the deleted Model Y production tweet:


"What do you mean by “split” exactly?"​

Does anyone have or remember the original tweet that got deleted?
 
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