Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ammulder]

That's mostly true if you are combining Powerwalls with Solar. If you are using Powerwalls as your backup electricity source (because you can't use solar for one reason or another), it's different. in either case you need enough Poweralls to charge your cars and in the non-solar case enough to last for several days.

Uhh... enough Powerwalls to charge your cars? So, SIX PowerWalls (13.5 kWh each) for a Model 3 (~75 kWh), for instance? That seems excessive. I think if the PowerWalls are acting as the backup power source, there needs to be a different plan for charging cars.

 

[Mad@gascar]

The value of your shares doesn't change. After the stock buyback (assuming you didn't sell), you own a larger portion of a smaller company, if by company we mean the enterprise plus the company's cash. The value of the enterprise is the same, the cash is gone, there are fewer shares outstanding, so you own a greater portion of the enterprise, but have no more claim on your portion of the cash hoard, because the cash was spent.

No value was destroyed. Although there are fewer shareholders now, all with the same worth as before, the ones that sold their shares to the company now sit on an equivalent amount of cash. Everybody is happy, no value was created or destroyed.

Thus share buybacks are typically done if a company sits on a huge pile of cash without much of an idea of how to invest the capital profitably. The share buyback is a way of returning the extra (not needed) cash to the investors, while keeping everybody happy. Happier than paying a dividend, in most cases, because of the tax liability that dividends create for the shareholders.

 

[gerebgraus]

Many institutional investors don't have the luxury of angel investors rolling the dice - they need to offer stability of income/returns instead of a lottery ticket with a high but nearly not 100% probability.

Had they rolled the dice and invested 100% in TSLA in early 2018, and had a bus hit Elon in the spring of 2018, their fund might have been wiped out.

This is one area where private investors are at a massive advantage.

If ARK had 80% in their fund in TSLA or some other company, then potential investors could say : "thank you for your research, but I can buy TSLA on my own. To attract investors they need to sell their winners. In economics this is usually called agency risk or cost: I.e. the agent does not just what is best for their customers for a fair price, but they represent their own partially contrary interest as well. Same story with the much less serious Gerber.

 

[StealthP3D]

Or stop at: "I am the world's worst predictor... please use my analysis as a contra indication of where the equity is going"

Anyone who says "I am the world's worst predictor of Tesla's stock price," and yet plans to short Tesla needs to put that disclosure in the prospectus. It pretty much makes the fund a full-on carnival. No one would knowingly hire someone who is the worst person in the world (at what they do).

Good thing the fund is probably only comprised of two investors (Toilet Boy's mother and father). Because they probably won't sue him as a normal investor would upon learning that he admits he's incompetent.

 

[FrankSG]

Autonomy is FSD/AP revenue.
Correct on Fleet Share. I capped it at 33% of the total vehicle fleet (excluding Semi)
Robotaxi in the model gets up to 300k by 2028

Sign me up for $58k!

Thanks for the clarifications!

You calculated Fleet Share (Tesla Network) as a percentage of that year's Autonomy sales though, not based on total vehicle fleet. These two figures are barely correlated. Fleet Share should be calculated based on cumulative Autonomy sales if anything (or total vehicle fleet as you say), because FSD cars sold in years prior are still able to contribute to the Tesla Network.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ihor Dusaniwsky will be on CNBC tomorrow at 7:00 am.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Let's see if he shows his true colors!

 

[ggies07]

Just an updated reiteration that Elon's Tesla compensation package is to help SpaceX go as far as possible.....love this guy. Nice thread on Twitter....

 

[RobStark]

You just know that's going to turn out well.

Yes, since it will be powered by Mr. Fusion Home Energy Reactor.

Science is hard.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Monday is a trading holiday.
The end of today's trading day looked pretty good.
Tomorrow should be interesting (no predictions beyond that )

 

[SpaceCash]

Monday is a trading holiday.
The end of today's trading day looked pretty good.
Tomorrow should be interesting (no predictions beyond that )

I gotta get @Unpilot 's take

 

[printf42]

OT:
Jack Dorsey Asks Elon Musk How to Fix Twitter
lol calling it PH works!

 

[Unpilot]

I gotta get @Unpilot 's take

Well its going to be an up day.

Just watch

 

[jhm]

Just an updated reiteration that Elon's Tesla compensation package is to help SpaceX go as far as possible.....love this guy. Nice thread on Twitter....

View attachment 501064

So this how Elon wants to lay up treasures in heaven. Literally.

 

[ZeApelido]

This makes absolutely no sense. His price target is 25% below the mean of his options predicted range. I mean is anybody taking this guy seriously? Based on his range his target should be close to 500 and based on that he should at least be equal weight. Why include this graph at all? The only explanation would be manipulation.

Adam appplies the nuanced statistical analysis called the Maximum Idiothood estimate

 

[generalenthu]

Say what you will, never accuse Elon of not thinking big.

 

[CanadaEV]

Monday is a trading holiday.
The end of today's trading day looked pretty good.
Tomorrow should be interesting (no predictions beyond that )

This is a clip from Gali from an earlier video.
He is right that even Wall Street bulls are wildly missing the scale of Tesla's growth...

 

[farzyness]

Thanks for the clarifications!

You calculated Fleet Share (Tesla Network) as a percentage of that year's Autonomy sales though, not based on total vehicle fleet. These two figures are barely correlated. Fleet Share should be calculated based on cumulative Autonomy sales if anything (or total vehicle fleet as you say), because FSD cars sold in years prior are still able to contribute to the Tesla Network.

Agreed - however in order to stay conservative I only applied it to new sales.

 

[JRP3]

This is a must watch. Tons of insights from Sandy into Tesla's manufacturing costs and advantages, especially with regards to cybertruck.

Be aware that Munro does make some mistakes. For example I'm pretty sure he confused the pressed paper dashboard with some sort of "paper" based screen that he saw once before. He also seemed confused about the bullet proof, (9mm bullet), SS body panels and the glass.

 

[M3Rider]

Yup. I instantly knew this was a fake dip and bought a Feb 7 $575 call this morning when price was at 502.

It's a gamble but I feel pretty comfortable with it

He-he. I bought 2/7 550c when price was 502

However, I think Karen's idea of 6/20 840c was even better. Read about it much later.
Approx. same money, but longer time horizon to recover money if ER does not bring the expected effect right away.

Btw, here's what TT007 did today, got to read after the close.

So, surprisingly, same idea as Karen's. And 2022s are really good deals, but need much more money for that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Monday is a trading holiday.
The end of today's trading day looked pretty good.
Tomorrow should be interesting (no predictions beyond that )

Nasdaq - U.S. Equity and Options Markets Holiday Schedule 2020
2020 Holiday Status
January 1, 2020 New Year's Day (Observed) Closed
January 20, 2020 Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Closed
February 17, 2020 President's Day - U.S. Closed
April 10, 2020 Good Friday Closed
May 25, 2020 Memorial Day - U.S. Closed
July 3, 2020 Independence Day - U.S. Closed
September 7, 2020 Labor Day - U.S. Closed
November 26, 2020 Thanksgiving Day - U.S. Closed
November 27, 2020 Early Close - U.S. 1:00 p.m.
December 24, 2020 Christmas Eve Early Close - U.S. 1:00 p.m.
December 25, 2020 Christmas Day Closed