Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

Nasdaq - U.S. Equity and Options Markets Holiday Schedule 2020
2020 Holiday Status
January 1, 2020 New Year's Day (Observed) Closed
January 20, 2020 Martin Luther King, Jr. Day Closed
February 17, 2020 President's Day - U.S. Closed
April 10, 2020 Good Friday Closed
May 25, 2020 Memorial Day - U.S. Closed
July 3, 2020 Independence Day - U.S. Closed
September 7, 2020 Labor Day - U.S. Closed
November 26, 2020 Thanksgiving Day - U.S. Closed
November 27, 2020 Early Close - U.S. 1:00 p.m.
December 24, 2020 Christmas Eve Early Close - U.S. 1:00 p.m.
December 25, 2020 Christmas Day Closed

That's bogus, Mondays are my favourite day of the week lately.

 

[Krugerrand]

Did you have your whole life savings in it when it was in the 180’s? 300’s?

Been all in since 2012.

 

[SteveG3]

to me, the name of this new model jumps out as plain as day... the Model 6000


disclaimer, I'm not actually quite as confident as Ark Invest that we'll hit that mark in just a few years

 

[dc_h]

You have to admit TSLA is a stock that you can make money on either by betting it goes up or by betting it goes down. Like in many aspects of life it's all in the timing. I sold my shares that were into long term capital gains. Got $520 for them. I bet I can buy them back cheaper at some point. I mean significantly cheaper. Don't know what the quarter financials will show, but the stock is very inflated and anything remotely like bad news will make it drop a bunch. Then I'll get back in and wait for the next good news.

I’ve been in and out of some Tesla shares, but I bought first at 30 a share and have stayed invested since then. regarding getting in and out on other stocks I have 3 lessons. I sold MCI and saved a few thousand dollars. I patted myself on the back. I sold a few thousand dollars with of Apple about the same time. I thought I was very wise. The 200 shares would have become 5600 shares at 300 or so a share. It was hard to see any advantage apple had, other then Steve Jobs. Looking at Tesla today, it has a visionary leader and is much more like 2009 apple then 1998 apple. So the lesson to me is to not worry about Tuesday’s or Adam Jonas or other bumps in the road. If someone builds a mousetrap even close to Tesla, I’ll unload some shares. In the meantime, I’ll watch the show and enjoy the ride.

 

[shootformoon]

I am so tired of people disparaging Adam Jonas. He is absolutely a winner.

You guys do not understand his job. In my understanding, a sell side analyst's job is finding/encouraging suckers(sorry investors) to buy the shares that his company/real clients want to sell and vice versa. I think he is doing a great job moving the SP by his influence and people, including you guys who despise him, still pay lots of attention to him. He got paid well because he is worth every penny to his company.

On the other hand, although his success rate is close to 50%, so many people still treat him as a rock star/most thoughtful expert in his field. I mean, isn't this most people's dream situation? You can do no wrong in your job. Your boss and your client value you so much no matter what kind of sugar you feed them?

Adam Jonas, the man, the myth, the legend.

This makes absolutely no sense. His price target is 25% below the mean of his options predicted range. I mean is anybody taking this guy seriously? Based on his range his target should be close to 500 and based on that he should at least be equal weight. Why include this graph at all? The only explanation would be manipulation.

 

[Doit]

i'm not going to respond to any replies to my post (nor have i read any of them). Suffice it to say, Adam Jonas (who has historically been a bull on the name) provides 30 pages of justification as to why he decided to downgrade the stock. I've read it all, and it sounds reasonable.

If you would like some context, feel free to msg me.

Sounds VERY rational. Go ahead and put your money where your mouth is, i.e. short TSLA, as Jonas' PT is $360.

 

[FrankSG]

Agreed - however in order to stay conservative I only applied it to new sales.

In case you're interested, somebody just shared your model on r/teslainvestorsclub.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Shorts doing their part to convince people not to buy Tesla vehicles:

Tracie Wagman on Twitter

EDIT: Anyone got an alternate source for this? Can't verify:

https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News

@Trade_The_News
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36m

$TSLA Reports Dec China Registrations 6.64K v 5.60K prior- China Automotive Information Net (Tesla Inc) Reminder: Nov China deliveries 5.60K - US financial press

 

[FrankSG]

Looks like Tesla recently released their Q4'19 safety report.

It's starting to become apparent now that there's a fair bit of seasonality involved in these numbers.

I'm kind of disappointed by the huge drop in "Tesla Autopilot" tbh, but I guess it is still up YoY... slightly.

 

[sundaymorning]

Im only 10 minutes in - but Sandy is saying very good things about CyberTruck, saying they could spend as little as $30 million capex to set up for 50,000 CTs annually.

paint shop would have costed $150 million? That’s a lot of savings.

 

[JustMe]

Looks like Tesla recently released their Q4'19 safety report.

View attachment 501164

It's starting to become apparent now that there's a fair bit of seasonality involved in these numbers.

I'm kind of disappointed by the huge drop in "Tesla Autopilot" tbh, but I guess it is still up YoY... slightly.

The first thing I noticed was the drop in Q4, which seems bad, but I think this has more to do with small number statistics.

Another way of looking at it is Q3 was anomalously good, and Q4 is perfectly in line with all other periods. Moreover, AP is consistently the safest mode of driving. It is a sure bet that it will be so next Q.

It will be very interesting, and telling to see the first safety report including FSD. Hopefully that’s even better.

Another thing to look foreword to is when the majority of cars on the road is using AP or FSD. That’s when we could see accident rates really plummet.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Tesla New Car Registrations Rise Again in China Despite Slowdown

Tesla Inc.’s new car registrations climbed again in China last month to the highest since March despite a slowdown in the wider auto market.

Registrations of Tesla vehicles rose to 6,643 in December, according to state-backed China Automotive Information Net, which gathers industry data based on insurance purchases.

 

[ZeApelido]

Rumors from since deleted tweets from someone rando "evbite" said Model Y deliveries to start in March. (sales?) staff being flown in to CA for prepping. Not allowed to bring phones or something.

Could be bs but FYI...

 

[hobbes]

Guess you gotta ask Elon for input on this . Site seems busy, last I heard (maybe a week ago) that the cheap price for the land was put in question. But now it seems the Brandenburg governent is expecting Elon to sign, wouldn´t make sense if they had in fact raised the price. Rest of short article is criticism towards Tesla about lack public information about factory but ends with saying Tesla is now planning to open an info center in Grünheide opened two days a week, so that was taken care of. No idea why Elon isn´t signing yet but otherwise everything is going its way so no big deal IMHO. Sounded also like Tesla had good communications with the environmental organisations.

Update: Yesterday the local water agency published a press release saying that they currently cannot supply enough water for GF4 (also at initial size) and have told the higher government agencies so before, but their input has not been taken into account. Sounds like someone got to throw some money at them so they can build the needed infrastructure. #Gf4 #Gigafactory4 on Twitter

 

[FrankSG]

Another way of looking at it is Q3 was anomalously good, and Q4 is perfectly in line with all other periods. Moreover, AP is consistently the safest mode of driving. It is a sure bet that it will be so next Q.

I think due to the apparent seasonality in these numbers, it's not useful to compare anything but YoY numbers. But that's why I was disappointed in Q4'19's Autopilot stat, because it's barely any better than Q4'18's Autopilot stat.

A possible explanation would be that they've mostly been working on FSD and NoA in the past year and Autopilot being relatively stagnant. Considering FSD (and therefore NoA) attach rates are still quite low, this might be why there isn't much improvement in these numbers.

I'd really like for Tesla to release more detailed accident/safety/disengagement statistics surrounding NoA in particular. I'm really curious to see how close it's getting to human levels of safety. If Elon wants his "FSD as safe as a human in 2020" claim to be taken more seriously, and he wants the market to start valuing Tesla's lead in Autonomy, I reckon this is what they'll have to do.

 

[skybluecgreen]

In the U.S. selling the option will result in a short-term capital gain that is taxed as ordinary income (unless you have a bigger short-term capital loss to write it off against). Exercising the option causes the option gain to reduce the cost basis of the stock and start the holding period. If you hold over a year you will have a long-term capital gain and pay significantly less taxes. So in the U.S. in most cases it is better to exercise than sell the option.

Assuming you have the cash or margin in your account to pay the exercise price, the OCC's automatic exercise Expiration-Exercise-Assignment of all in-the-money (ITM) options will mean you don't have to do anything if you want to exercise an ITM option at expiration. If you don't have the cash/margin to exercise the call, some brokers will sell the option for you before market close, while others will hit you with a margin call which is probably not what you want. You can instruct your broker to not exercise an ITM call in which case it expires and you get nothing for it. This might be desirable if it's only ITM by a few cents for example.

If you sell an itm call that you have held for over one year it will be taxed as a long term capital gain as I understand it.

 

[SpaceCash]

Rumors from since deleted tweets from someone rando "evbite" said Model Y deliveries to start in March. (sales?) staff being flown in to CA for prepping. Not allowed to bring phones or something.

Could be bs but FYI...

That's all I needed to hear to put my life savings into the stock
Oh wait I already did

If you sell an itm call that you have held for over one year it will be taxed as a long term capital gain as I understand it.

Better work that way because that's part of my strategy. The only caveat is if you EXERCISE the call, then those shares are now short term gains until you hold those for a year.

 

[powertoold]

Rumors from since deleted tweets from someone rando "evbite" said Model Y deliveries to start in March. (sales?) staff being flown in to CA for prepping. Not allowed to bring phones or something.

Could be bs but FYI...

My BS meter high on this one

Flying staff to prep a car that's essentially a 3? No phones? Deleted tweet? Smells BSsy

 

[NicoV]

Is Tesla subsidizing European Superchargers to the tune of 56 eurocents per kWh?

No, the energy part of electricity is around 5 cents/kWh. Domestic (i.e. low voltage (240V)) customers pay between 15-35 eurcents, depending on location (country) because of all kinds of taxes added to the bill. Industrial users (middle/high voltage connections) pay less taxes because the governments want to keep the industry competitive, but I don’t know the pricing details. I’m pretty sure Tesla has a positive margin on SUC electricity in Europe.

 

[Tslynk67]

Anyone just catch the report on Tesla short selling on NPR's All Things Considered? It's brilliant.

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

They interviewed Mark Spiegel, and he came off sounding like a bit of a lunatic.

"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does.

Yeah, except once side believes in innovation and a better future, the others believe in whatever conspiracy they can conjure on any given day.

Seriously, these claims of fraud are just ridiculous, even if there were some accounting tricks in the books (name me a company that doesn't do that), they don't amount to fraud - the fact that Tesla will likely sell over half a million cars this year is the proof.

And Autopilot being "near homicidal" - what universe do these people live in? Sure it's dangerous if you tape an orange to the wheel and climb in the back seat, but try doing that with another car without Autopilot (put a brick on the gas pedal) and report back to me on how it went, if you can...

Then we have the while "surviving on subsidy" nonsense, which completely fails to address the fact that fossil fuels receive much higher subsidies than EV's and renewables.

Any normal, rational human being would understand this. I'm pretty sure that the shorties can't all be *that* stupid, which just leads me once again to the conclusion that the ring-leaders are funded by nefarious interests.

Still, short term pain some days, long term will increase out profits, more fool them.