Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Could be that people are trying to time the peak of the short squeeze, and may have $600 as that peak level and want to lock their profits. I remember for example Jack Rickard was looking at this level in one of his videos.

In the end, market timers will sit on cash and watch this train run away. I added a few shares just before market close. There is a good chance that every few shares will turn into a Tesla car down the road.

 

[StealthP3D]

We'll probably be able to tell if this occurs when the short interest gets released. If there is a (sharp) drop, than likely someone was forced out.

I disagree because the short interest data does not distinguish between 100 smaller shorts covering (forced or not) and one large short being forced to cover.

 

[EV forever]

It does make a difference. You also can alter your status in a number of respects. In my decade living in CA I never approached the nominal rates. You really do need a sound tax strategy to live tex-efficiently in California. For that matter, in most places in the world. I have found the costs of a good tax attorney to have been very much a wise move.

Maybe the case. It also depends on the source of income. In our case the entire income is as salaries and bonuses. Not many deductions other than mortgage interest which is quite low. Even after stuffing all the pre-tax and tax deferred options, we end up in high tax brackets. We are very careful not to take short term gains. Not much we can do about the salary income though

 

[sdtslafan]

wait I thought long term cap gains was 15%?

Yes for most people, but could be 20% if you have high income or realize lot of gains at once. In addition state tax up to 13% in Cali and 4% Obama tax.

I am no expert so check with your accountant. This is my understanding.

 

[jhm]

To what do we attribute the setting of a new ATH today?

Is this just a blind market poking around to find an upper limit?

Awhile back I was suggesting the the new trading range could be $370 to $570. Looks like I need to adjust the top number, but how much?

 

[Mike Smith]

Shorts aren't covering because this rise has been parabolic, and parabolics always end in disaster.

Well, maybe they should look at 2013. TSLA went from 35 to 95 in a clear parabolic, ending near vertical. But when the parabolic ended there was no crash - it just rose at a slower, steady pace until it doubled again. And then.. it doubled again.

Through this period TSLA rose all the way to 280 when revenues were only 1-2B and nobody really thought there was going to be a transition to EVs. Now revenues are 25B and everyone agrees EVs are the future. The stock price is only double.

 

[TradingInvest]

This is how SARS in Hong Kong peaked:

View attachment 503262​

So about ~3 months until it was clear infections are shrinking, and ~4-5 months until it was over.

Much depends on whether they manage to quarantine the virus - the Chinese New Year when everyone travels home comes at the worst moment.

Let's hope for the best.

We should keep watching closely. My impression is this is basically the same thing as 17 years ago, except the government is 3 times better prepared this round. Last time it took a long time for them to figure out what's causing it and how to deal with it.

 

[avoigt]

Shorts aren't covering because this rise has been parabolic, and parabolics always end in disaster.

Well, maybe they should look at 2013. TSLA went from 35 to 95 in a clear parabolic, ending near vertical. But when the parabolic ended there was no crash - it just rose at a slower, steady pace until it doubled again. And then.. it doubled again.

Through this period TSLA rose all the way to 280 when revenues were only 1-2B and nobody really thought there was going to be a transition to EVs. Now revenues are 25B and everyone agrees EVs are the future. The stock price is only double.

Very true. While everybody cries overvalued but its in fact still a modest correction for a growth technology stock base on the undervalued last years.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Reread my post. I covered your two scenarios.

Not really. The first doesn’t necessarily imply you know of a better investment, just that you believe this is a bad one(in its current state), so you may pull out the money and put it in a bank account.

And the latter doesn’t imply that you have immediate need for the cash, just that you don’t need to and aren’t interested in doing the work to stay on top of the investment anymore.

 

[SMAlset]

Don't think this article from Markets Business Insider has been shared here yet on short seller hedge funds.

Traders betting against Tesla have lost $3.3 billion less than a month into 2020. Many are still holding onto their short positions. (TSLA) | Markets Insider

 

[Mike Smith]

Very true. While everybody cries overvalued but its in fact still a modest correction for a growth technology stock base on the undervalued last years.

Yes, it formed a 5 year base during a roaring bull market, so it has a lot of catching up to do.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Robinhood is showing expected EPS at $1.72. Not sure if this is a new development or not... just noticed it.

The 1.72 implies a level of precision that is bot possible. Really 1.72 n0t 1.71 or 1.70?

 

[EVDRVN]

Australia?

I bet your are more pissed about that 20/20 thing

 

[woodisgood]

It would be nice if everyone could just take a moment to reflect on where Tesla would be without the guy that invented the wheel.

Spoiler

$400/sh

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Shorts aren't covering because this rise has been parabolic, and parabolics always end in disaster.

Well, maybe they should look at 2013. TSLA went from 35 to 95 in a clear parabolic, ending near vertical. But when the parabolic ended there was no crash - it just rose at a slower, steady pace until it doubled again. And then.. it doubled again.

Through this period TSLA rose all the way to 280 when revenues were only 1-2B and nobody really thought there was going to be a transition to EVs. Now revenues are 25B and everyone agrees EVs are the future. The stock price is only double.

re posting this pic since you are describing what I$ going to happen next...(today we are close to maybe 50$ in 2013 time?)

Today has a much better similarity than it did 2 weeks ago, especially with a 1 year time frame

 

[SO16]

Why do you assume his base would be anti Tesla? Plenty of conservatives own Teslas, and TSLA. Good post.

Very true. I lean left but some of my best friends are big time conservatives including my dad and uncle. They are all pro Tesla but not for environmental reasons. And this is in Grand Rapids, Mi. The city that “elected” Trump.

I was annoyed when republicans purposely blocked Tesla. But Elected officials don’t always reflect the will of the people. Surprise surprise.

 

[SteveG3]

To what do we attribute the setting of a new ATH today?

Is this just a blind market poking around to find an upper limit?

Awhile back I was suggesting the the new trading range could be $370 to $570. Looks like I need to adjust the top number, but how much?

does it need to be seen as more complicated than more people realizing the stock is very likely undervalued in the $300s, $400s, and $500s?

I look at the stock price as a combination of random reactions (“positive” and “negative”) and the aggregate of market participants attempts at rational valuations of the company itself.

Sometimes the latter gets it about right AND the former washes itself out, resulting in a stock price at about fair value. Is there any more probable place for any stock price to at least sometimes travel to than this event I just described (roughly fair value)?

 

[AudubonB]

The 1.72 implies a level of precision that is bot possible. Really 1.72 n0t 1.71 or 1.70?

Truly amazing what those bots can do, isn't it?

 

[tinm]

i just read through umpteen pages of posts here and while many folks commented on Trump’s quotes about ‘genius’ Musk, and a few shared the transcript of Trump’s entire (rambling) statement, I could not find anyone focusing in on the last words Trump uttered, especially the final sentence:

He’s going to be building a very big plant in the United States. He has to, because we help him, so he has to help us.

To me this is the most interesting thing Trump said. The rest was the typical random word salad from a super-buggy neural net. But that very last sentence is, I’m certain, the real Trump: it seems like a message directly aimed at Musk, as if he is talking directly to him and not the reporter. It could be a quid pro quo of sorts, or a subtle threat, but it’s something, and I sure as hell wanna know what it is.

 

[CorneliusXX]

The virus thing will quickly pass.

Or the host will.