PSA is €928m I suspect.
Interestingly the PSA fines appear to be lower in this estimate than in
@Prunesquallor's?
By 2021 the PSA-FCA merger will probably have closed already, so Tesla's EU ZEV credits pool might increase to 2.4+0.93=€3.33b - or $3.6b.
Even if FCA revives the Fiat500e for the "supercredits", that's still a substantial pool for Tesla to deliver into.
@Fact Checking
I would interpret the PA Consulting numbers with caution. Their PSA penalties looked very low to me given what I saw when I tried to assess a FCA-PSA-Tesla emissions pool, so I've tried to reverse-engineer their analysis. Also, keep in mind this is somewhat different than the pooling assessment, as PA is looking at non-pooling advancements that existing manufacturers might make/have made going into 2021 that would replace portions of their ICE fleets.
In the PA
PSA assessment:
1) The 2018 PSA CO2 emission level (113.9 g/km), 2021 emission
target (91.6 g/km) and EU fleet size (2.47 million) appear consistent with the EU references I used (fleet size was backed out of their 2021 penalty prediction and 2021 emission prediction).
2)
PA assumes VERY aggressive PSA progress in emissions - a reduction to 95.6 g/km by 2021. This is a reduction of ~80% of their 2018 emissions violation. Given THAT assumption, their penalty computation (€938 million) appears correct.
If their emissions remain at 2018 levels, I get a penalty of €5.25 billion.
3) This progress appears much more aggressive than any other manufacturers (Figure 7 in the report).
4) Paradoxically, the report notes that PSA emissions have actually been getting
worse in recent years (Page 9 in the report).
5) When I run my model, it appears that to get this level of reduction,
the equivalent of 340,000 ZEVs would have to replace ICE vehicles in the PSA fleet in 2021.
So what is the basis for this aggressive CO2 reduction prediction?
In the "Methodology" section of the PA report (p.41):
"To forecast CO2 emissions, targets and fines, we used a proprietary analysis based on public data and our industry expertise." This seems to include predictions of average fleet weight, powertrain type, car segment which feeds into emission prediction. Obviously, this is opaque to us.
Additionally, in their "Analysis in Detail" of PSA they state:
"PSA’s new platforms, CME and EMP2, give them more flexibility in their production lines, enabling them to manufacture petrol, diesel or electric vehicles from the same facility. This will help them ramp up production and adapt to changes in technology."
I know nothing of these platforms, so can't assess their potential. Others should chime in.
Also:
"The Group has made progress in the electrification of its portfolio and aims to only offer fully-electric (PHEV & BEV) models by 2025, with the first on sale from 2020. By the end of 2020, all brands will have one BEV car available. We expect PHEV and BEV to make up 10 per cent of its sales in Europe by 2021." That would be ~250,000 PSA PHEV/BEVs by next year (see comment below).
Final note. It's not clear to me PA Consulting is using Super-Credits correctly in their calculations. On page 43 they acknowledge they account for Super-Credits, but do not point out the important fact that Super-Credits only apply to the first 7.5 g/km of emission reduction.
Omitting that would make their results optimistic and would indicate they could indeed meet those 2021 emissions with 250,000 ZEVs rather than my calculation of 340,000.
