Starbucks, apple, beating earnings expectations. Let's hope we see the same with Tesla.
They should put adds on the page and bolster the Q1 earnings a little.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Good! One way to look at it: when AAPL reaches a $2 trillion valuation (and more companies reach $1 trillion, after MSFT, AMZN and now GOOG), the easier it will become for TSLA to reach the $1 trillion mark. The market is not just about earnings, but also about psychology.
hacer
Active Member
Assuming this was a bull spread, (you bought the 500's and sold the 520's), then extremely, extremely likely but technically not guaranteed (see below), the 520 would be assigned to you so you will sell 100 shares to whoever bought the 520 in exchange for $52,000. For tax treatment, if you didn't take any other steps your broker will usually have you set to FIFO (first-in-first-out) trading (but check your broker, it could be different) meaning your longest held shares would be the ones sold. The premium you received for selling the 520 leg would be subtracted from the cost-basis of of those shares and you will owe tax (either long-term or short depending on when they were bought) on the gain for selling them for $52,000. Then your 500's would be exercised and you will buy 100 shares for $50,000 and your cost basis for those shares will be $50,000 + whatever price you paid for the 500 leg.
Since the buying and selling happened at the same time (there is no "first", the cash from the assignment will be used to pay for the exercise), it might well look like you just got $2,000 credited to your account (unless you check your transaction history where you will see each leg sparately). But tax wise you'd have the above case unless you instructed your broker to use LIFO tax method, in which case it would be a short-term gain (same as ordinary income) on $2,000.
If by some miracle, some fool instructed their broker to not exercise the ITM option and you were the lucky person who was randomly not-assigned that non-exercise then that leg expires worthless and you don't sell any shares for $520. But you are still on the hook for buying the exercise of your $500 leg, so if you don't have $50,000 in cash+margin in your account you will get a margin call. What happens then depends on your broker and maybe what the opening price on Monday is. I may have made this sound bad, but realistically you won a $6,000 bonus unless the stock absolutely tanked Monday morning in which case you may lose big time, since you will be long 100 more (tanking) shares which you may or may not have been able to pay for.
Average estimate is 1.72/share. Ranges from < $1 to > $2
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance
TSLA will be way more volatile. Someone posted that with options it can swing 11% one way or the other on the announcement. Short positions will be prepared to cover and shorts will double down on a miss.AAPL up almost 3% during the day and now another 3% after hours, after earnings announcement. Hopefully TSLA can have a similar (or better) day tomorrow.
The Marketwatch columnist whose blog I've skimmed on Apple's earnings is pretty dumbstruck by just how good the numbers are. Bodes well for bullish market sentiment in general. Hopefully Tesla can capitalize on some free-floating optimism with a great quarter of its own.
Looking at the options chains for AAPL compared to TSLA, all I can say about the former is...how boring. ;-)
Elon should troll them and send out all prototypes out tonight and get them seen. They'll be so scared what he'll announce tomorrow. Elon on the ATV getting pinks hot dogs.
If a Q1 profit means S&P entry, I wonder if they will release a bunch of FSD and EV credit revenue if they need it to make it happen.
Imagine you're trying to push TSLA down because you're paid to do so by a conglomerate of interested parties with very deep pockets. What would be your strategy around ER time? You save your ammo pre-ER. Regardless of if ER is expected to be crap or great. You let the stock do whatever it does pre-ER (likely up). Then on the day after ER you go all in on shorting the stock to create an impression that ER was below expectations. This will establish the new lower (or not as high as it could have been) baseline that, on no news or strong buyers showing up, would hold until close to next ER.
I think a strong ER is very much baked into the current price. I'm optimistic on the ER itself, but neutral on the after-ER stock moves. Mostly in but sold a little more of my high-leverage options (taxes on 6x gains, ouch) to be able to throw down on a post-ER manipulative push down if it happens.
I think a strong ER is very much baked into the current price. I'm optimistic on the ER itself, but neutral on the after-ER stock moves. Mostly in but sold a little more of my high-leverage options (taxes on 6x gains, ouch) to be able to throw down on a post-ER manipulative push down if it happens.
Excellent responses! Just note it's "capital" not "capitol"
I think one of the other stand-out features of the M3SR is that they retained the glass roof - how many other cars in that price-bracket have a feature like that?
Aah thanks for the correction. I’m usually an excellent spiller!
hacer
Active Member
FTFY.
I agree we shouldn't be afraid to hear from Ihor, but the guy didn't know of the existence of FTD (failure-to-deliver) reports and insisted the very idea of FTDs was mostly a myth when I asked him about the suspicious anomaly in the reports last year. I mean added across all stocks there are hundreds of thousands of shares FTD in the report every single settlement day. Sometimes millions, and he thought it was myth!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Scene outside a Tesla Store in NYC:
Cheers! @Krugerrand How's that'en?
"Give us your poor, tired pickups yearning to breathe free."
Cheers! @Krugerrand How's that'en?
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Think I saw this...
"Nonetheless, the company has an Earnings ESP of +3.34%."
Zacks.com
Expected surprise has a pretty good track record for returns...
Make mine a;
"Rosie O'Donnell Long Island Dog
Stretch dog, mustard, onions, chili, sauerkraut" not exactly a Nathans or All American (Massapequa) but will do till I get back to the Island in July...
Up in the aftermarket so far. Exuberance around other companies beating earnings?
It would make sense for Q1 to have a new FSD feature based on the timeline we have seen so far, so yeah.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Holy AAPL......how do you sell $5B more in phones than the market expected? Lunacy.
Although, considering the prices of new Iphones that's only a few thousand right?
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