Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dreadnought]

Tesla Stock Is Rising Ahead of Earnings and Amid Coronavirus Concerns in China

Free Supercharging in China until the crisis is over… Tesla seldom misses an opportunity to do the right thing

And in addition to doing good things and (let others) talk about it, this also carries the subtle message that while the lockdown disrupts fuel supply, electricity still flows freely. Charge up your EV even when ground transport has come to a halt.

 

[ZeApelido]

Mark Twain said, "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."

Wow this quote is so appropriate with dealing with my boss right now. Thanks!

 

[SMAlset]

Although, considering the prices of new Iphones that's only a few thousand right?

i don’t think the loss of the federal credit will make a big dent in Tesla sales either. Kind of like Apple’s phones doing so well. People are still willing to buy the products they love.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, this could actually become an issue.

We should not cheer for maximum cost this or even next year. Best case scenario the fees should be high enough to be a significant cost that ICE manufacturers can't ignore but not high enough that they can get workers and local politicians to revolt against it.

They’re liars and manipulators, but worst of all they’re murderers. There isn’t actually a dollar figure that makes up for their transgressions against the human race. Therefore they should actually be fined right out of existence.

The workers should already be revolting against the company. They’ve been made unwitting participants in a major crime.

 

[X Fan]

Make mine a;
"Rosie O'Donnell Long Island Dog
Stretch dog, mustard, onions, chili, sauerkraut" not exactly a Nathans or All American (Massapequa) but will do till I get back to the Island in July...

lol: I've been to that All American....great burgers, dogs & fries in a 50's era hamburger joint.

 

[LJS22]

Holy AAPL......how do you sell $5B more in phones than the market expected? Lunacy.

Apple has normalized getting a new phone every year by taking out a zero interest loan. People upgrade their phones every September, or get one for Christmas.

Imagine if Tesla began a Tesla upgrade program where you pay them every month for the car, insurance, the whole package and when Tesla has an upgraded version of the car out you get a “free upgrade” they take your car currently and recycle the battery, use the body for parts on repairs, or flexes the old car into a robo fleet. Now all your customers are paying you a forever loan and they never own the car. I could see it working haha

Roadster would start at $3k
S&X would start at $1k
Cybertruck and Y start at $600
Model 3 starts at $500

 

[Singuy]

Just had a quick briefing at my hospital about the coronavirus from our infectious disease specialist. Currently the mortality rate is less than influenza. It's not expected to cause too much of a concern. Media is panicking because it's a new strand of coronavirus vs the ones that have been infecting people around the world for years.

So in summery, less than a nothing burger.

 

[StealthP3D]

It wouldn’t matter much if they robotaxi a gasoline car, only electric cars would fit in this world as cost of running it would be far better. However, it is interesting that as these other brands catch up and add lane changing Tesla prepares to unleash city driving for their fleet.

Lane changing is rather easy to program using traditional programming techniques. Tesla uses machine vision/neural network to get it done. I don't think you can characterize GMC's Supercruise as "catching up" to Tesla. They are not even in a similar league.

the last 5% of autonomy will be the real race. If it’s even possible, but I put my money on Tesla to get it done.

What do you mean by "If it's even possible"? Autonomous driving?

Are you pulling our collective legs or do you really think it may be impossible to have machines that can drive more safely than humans?

 

[Vad42]

Apple has normalized getting a new phone every year by taking out a zero interest loan. People upgrade their phones every September, or get one for Christmas.

Imagine if Tesla began a Tesla upgrade program where you pay them every month for the car, insurance, the whole package and when Tesla has an upgraded version of the car out you get a “free upgrade” they take your car currently and recycle the battery, use the body for parts on repairs, or flexes the old car into a robo fleet. Now all your customers are paying you a forever loan and they never own the car. I could see it working haha

Roadster would start at $3k
S&X would start at $1k
Cybertruck and Y start at $600
Model 3 starts at $500

I think you just invented leasing.

And some people in fact always do that.

 

[LJS22]

Lane changing is rather easy to program using traditional programming techniques. Tesla uses machine vision/neural network to get it done. I don't think you can characterize GMC's Supercruise as "catching up" to Tesla. They are not even in a similar league.



What do you mean by "If it's even possible"? Autonomous driving?

Are you pulling our collective legs or do you really think it may be impossible to have machines that can drive more safely than humans?

Without a doubt it’s possible. If we could get rid of human drivers it would be easy. I mean possible in the sense of regulatory sanctions not allowing it. Every accident will be highly publicized, lots of pressure on government to regulate it. But the tech is there for sure. I believe if every road had correct lines painted it would be much easier. However the computer has the task now of dealing with human error and making decisions based on unpredictability. That’s the 5% that will be hard to account for. Basically the edge cases.

I haven’t had the chance to try out super cruise but I have no doubts it’s not in the same league as what Tesla is doing. They will advertise it as such though

 

[LJS22]

I think you just invented leasing.

And some people in fact always do that.

Lol I figured someone would call me out for that. Only difference would be everything is done with Tesla, the car can be upgraded once a year. If you wanted to drive a Cybertruck one year then switch to a S then it would be fine you wouldn’t be tied into a 3 year deal or try to find someone to pick up your lease. Now instead of customers buying a car every 5-7 years you count each upgrade as a sale.
Not sure Tesla would be at a point to make this cost efficient.

 

[Krugerrand]

Scene outside a Tesla Store in NYC:

"Give us your poor, tired pickups yearning to breathe free."​

View attachment 505261

Cheers! @Krugerrand How's that'en?

Meh. Try harder or wait until I’m on the toilet again.

 

[TradingInvest]

Apple has bought back $319 billion of its stock over the past 7 years. Those who insist to short Apple don't understand how this works. Tesla will buy back more than that amount down the road. It's only a matter of timing.

Edit:
Google's recent buyback program was buying back 25% of its shares. Long term Tesla investors try to predict TSLA price in 10~20 years, they usually use 200 or 300 million shares in their calculations. I think it's more realistic to use 100 million shares. Unless the stock quickly rise to $10,000 in the next few years so buyback wouldn't make sense.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - hour+ ago: Options traders bet $2 million on a monster post-earnings Tesla rally

 

[Cherry Wine]

Imagine you're trying to push TSLA down because you're paid to do so by a conglomerate of interested parties with very deep pockets. What would be your strategy around ER time? You save your ammo pre-ER. Regardless of if ER is expected to be crap or great. You let the stock do whatever it does pre-ER (likely up). Then on the day after ER you go all in on shorting the stock to create an impression that ER was below expectations. This will establish the new lower (or not as high as it could have been) baseline that, on no news or strong buyers showing up, would hold until close to next ER.

I think a strong ER is very much baked into the current price. I'm optimistic on the ER itself, but neutral on the after-ER stock moves. Mostly in but sold a little more of my high-leverage options (taxes on 6x gains, ouch) to be able to throw down on a post-ER manipulative push down if it happens.

It's all about guidance, guidance, guidance. I agree that a strong ER is priced in. People did the math on that about a month ago when the P&D report came out (thus the rise from then to now). Shorts can sell all they want if guidance is positive; it won't do them a lick of good in the face of guided-for Q1 profitability and therefore likely S&P inclusion, or Q1 / early Q2 Model Y deliveries, etc.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think a strong ER is very much baked into the current price. I'm optimistic on the ER itself, but neutral on the after-ER stock moves. Mostly in but sold a little more of my high-leverage options (taxes on 6x gains, ouch) to be able to throw down on a post-ER manipulative push down if it happens.

If you had 30x gains, your taxes would be even more. Good thing you only had 6x gains!

For anyone who hates paying capital gains taxes, I suggest you sell all your TSLA right now before the capital gains get really big!

I love paying capital gains. The more the merrier! If you sell too soon you will pay less (but have a lot less with which to pay and you will need to pay it sooner). That is the first deadly sin of investing (selling too soon).

Would you rather own TSLA or NFLX? Because NFLX's market cap is about 1 1/2 times the size of TSLA's. Tesla needs to go to around $850 to be as valuable as NFLX. Looking 10 years down the road I think NFLX will be a has-been while Tesla will be one of the world's most important companies.

 

[Ameliorate]

It's all about guidance, guidance, guidance. I agree that a strong ER is priced in. People did the math on that about a month ago when the P&D report came out (thus the rise from then to now).

Yes and no, I see earnings estimates from 1.6 to 1.82 EPS ( Q3 reported 1.86) from yahoo, zacks and a few others.
I think there's a good chance of surprise there.

 

[LJS22]

CNBC - hour+ ago: Options traders bet $2 million on a monster post-earnings Tesla rally

As crazy as $800 by June sounds it’s not that much of a long shot. Strong earnings with bullish guidance could give us a real short squeeze. Maybe I’m over simplifying it but if we thought we were having fun now it could get better.

 

[johnnybgood888]

John Krasinski was one of the first people to buy a Model X.

Evidently he could not master one pedal driving which drove his wife Emily Blunt nutty.

She pushed him to get rid of the X for a Mercedes instead.

Emily Blunt is on my hall pass list with the girlfriend. She has been removed.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yes and no, I see earnings estimates from 1.6 to 1.82 EPS ( Q3 reported 1.86) from yahoo, zacks and a few others.
I think there's a good chance of surprise there.

Yes - I should clarify, I think earnings in line with expectations (which I consider strong or "solid") is priced in. A beat to the upside above those expectations, especially if based on something sustainable like cost efficiencies/margins, would cause another jump, for sure.